Tim Hirschel-Burns
@timhirschelburns.bsky.social
Working at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center for a global economy that advances development and addresses climate change. Past: Oxfam, Yale Law, Benin. Views my own. https://timhirschelburns.substack.com/
However, vulnerability differs significantly between countries.
Nearly ever Guyanese oil and gas project is covered by ISDS provisions. Not a single Brazilian one is.
Why? Because Brazil refused to sign investment treaties with ISDS provisions
Nearly ever Guyanese oil and gas project is covered by ISDS provisions. Not a single Brazilian one is.
Why? Because Brazil refused to sign investment treaties with ISDS provisions
November 11, 2025 at 8:49 PM
However, vulnerability differs significantly between countries.
Nearly ever Guyanese oil and gas project is covered by ISDS provisions. Not a single Brazilian one is.
Why? Because Brazil refused to sign investment treaties with ISDS provisions
Nearly ever Guyanese oil and gas project is covered by ISDS provisions. Not a single Brazilian one is.
Why? Because Brazil refused to sign investment treaties with ISDS provisions
We found that there are 218 oil and gas projects in Amazonian countries covered by ISDS provisions. Colombia has the largest number of ISDS-covered projects by far.
These projects contain at least 26.5 barrels of oil equivalent
These projects contain at least 26.5 barrels of oil equivalent
November 11, 2025 at 8:49 PM
We found that there are 218 oil and gas projects in Amazonian countries covered by ISDS provisions. Colombia has the largest number of ISDS-covered projects by far.
These projects contain at least 26.5 barrels of oil equivalent
These projects contain at least 26.5 barrels of oil equivalent
This could cost them billions of dollars—on multiple occasions Amazonian countries have had to pay ISDS awards worth billions to oil + gas companies.
ISDS costs could cancel out funding to promote Amazon conservation through mechanisms like the Tropical Forests Forever Facility
ISDS costs could cancel out funding to promote Amazon conservation through mechanisms like the Tropical Forests Forever Facility
November 11, 2025 at 8:49 PM
This could cost them billions of dollars—on multiple occasions Amazonian countries have had to pay ISDS awards worth billions to oil + gas companies.
ISDS costs could cancel out funding to promote Amazon conservation through mechanisms like the Tropical Forests Forever Facility
ISDS costs could cancel out funding to promote Amazon conservation through mechanisms like the Tropical Forests Forever Facility
A significant amount of oil and gas extraction is located in the Amazon. For example, oil and gas blocks cover an estimated 2/3rds of the Peruvian Amazon.
Governments taking measures to stop deforestation could face ISDS claims from oil and gas companies
Governments taking measures to stop deforestation could face ISDS claims from oil and gas companies
November 11, 2025 at 8:49 PM
A significant amount of oil and gas extraction is located in the Amazon. For example, oil and gas blocks cover an estimated 2/3rds of the Peruvian Amazon.
Governments taking measures to stop deforestation could face ISDS claims from oil and gas companies
Governments taking measures to stop deforestation could face ISDS claims from oil and gas companies
On January 19, USAID was in line for bad but limited cuts. Project 2025 only called for cutting USAID back to 2019 funding levels.
Then Elon Musk came in and three weeks later USAID was functionally eliminated. Millions of people will die and hundreds of thousands already have, mostly children
Then Elon Musk came in and three weeks later USAID was functionally eliminated. Millions of people will die and hundreds of thousands already have, mostly children
November 7, 2025 at 2:12 PM
On January 19, USAID was in line for bad but limited cuts. Project 2025 only called for cutting USAID back to 2019 funding levels.
Then Elon Musk came in and three weeks later USAID was functionally eliminated. Millions of people will die and hundreds of thousands already have, mostly children
Then Elon Musk came in and three weeks later USAID was functionally eliminated. Millions of people will die and hundreds of thousands already have, mostly children
Came across this in a Larry Summers speech from 2017. Sometimes (and I emphasize, ONLY SOMETIMES) you gotta hand it to him
November 6, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Came across this in a Larry Summers speech from 2017. Sometimes (and I emphasize, ONLY SOMETIMES) you gotta hand it to him
This story is killing me
November 6, 2025 at 1:11 PM
This story is killing me
The report of the new G20 Expert Group on Global Inequality is well worth a read
g20.org/wp-content/u...
g20.org/wp-content/u...
November 5, 2025 at 3:48 PM
The report of the new G20 Expert Group on Global Inequality is well worth a read
g20.org/wp-content/u...
g20.org/wp-content/u...
For the prospect of coalitions of the willing moving forward without the US, the successful US coercion sets a very worrying precedent.
But it could well be that the outrageousness of the US tactics brings a short-term victory at the medium-term cost of marginalizing US influence
But it could well be that the outrageousness of the US tactics brings a short-term victory at the medium-term cost of marginalizing US influence
November 3, 2025 at 3:14 PM
For the prospect of coalitions of the willing moving forward without the US, the successful US coercion sets a very worrying precedent.
But it could well be that the outrageousness of the US tactics brings a short-term victory at the medium-term cost of marginalizing US influence
But it could well be that the outrageousness of the US tactics brings a short-term victory at the medium-term cost of marginalizing US influence
Notable that many of the Nigerian politicians rejecting the war on Christians rhetoric are themselves Christian.
Like there's literally a guy named "Godswill" saying this is false!
Like there's literally a guy named "Godswill" saying this is false!
November 1, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Notable that many of the Nigerian politicians rejecting the war on Christians rhetoric are themselves Christian.
Like there's literally a guy named "Godswill" saying this is false!
Like there's literally a guy named "Godswill" saying this is false!
And because West African cocoa farmers are paid so little, they can't invest in their trees, leading to low yields.
Now that the price paid to West African cocoa farmers is going *up*, the price we will pay for chocolate is going *down*
Now that the price paid to West African cocoa farmers is going *up*, the price we will pay for chocolate is going *down*
October 31, 2025 at 7:29 PM
And because West African cocoa farmers are paid so little, they can't invest in their trees, leading to low yields.
Now that the price paid to West African cocoa farmers is going *up*, the price we will pay for chocolate is going *down*
Now that the price paid to West African cocoa farmers is going *up*, the price we will pay for chocolate is going *down*
What happened is that 60% of cocoa comes from the Ivory Coast and Ghana, and they had terrible harvests in 2023/24 and 2024/25.
This sent cocoa prices through the roof, and chocolate being sold this Halloween is made with cocoa beans purchased during that expensive period
This sent cocoa prices through the roof, and chocolate being sold this Halloween is made with cocoa beans purchased during that expensive period
October 31, 2025 at 7:29 PM
What happened is that 60% of cocoa comes from the Ivory Coast and Ghana, and they had terrible harvests in 2023/24 and 2024/25.
This sent cocoa prices through the roof, and chocolate being sold this Halloween is made with cocoa beans purchased during that expensive period
This sent cocoa prices through the roof, and chocolate being sold this Halloween is made with cocoa beans purchased during that expensive period
If this was just a story about Trump's tariffs and economic policies, why would chocolate prices have risen much more than other types of candy?
And why would Halloween candy prices have significantly risen between 2023 and 2024, before Trump took office?
And why would Halloween candy prices have significantly risen between 2023 and 2024, before Trump took office?
October 31, 2025 at 7:29 PM
If this was just a story about Trump's tariffs and economic policies, why would chocolate prices have risen much more than other types of candy?
And why would Halloween candy prices have significantly risen between 2023 and 2024, before Trump took office?
And why would Halloween candy prices have significantly risen between 2023 and 2024, before Trump took office?
Check out my new Substack on why Halloween candy is so expensive this year!
It’s a story of cocoa markets, West African farmers + climate change. And there’s actually a hopeful ending: bc farmers’ incomes are going *up*, cocoa prices are going *down*
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-surpri...
It’s a story of cocoa markets, West African farmers + climate change. And there’s actually a hopeful ending: bc farmers’ incomes are going *up*, cocoa prices are going *down*
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-surpri...
October 31, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Check out my new Substack on why Halloween candy is so expensive this year!
It’s a story of cocoa markets, West African farmers + climate change. And there’s actually a hopeful ending: bc farmers’ incomes are going *up*, cocoa prices are going *down*
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-surpri...
It’s a story of cocoa markets, West African farmers + climate change. And there’s actually a hopeful ending: bc farmers’ incomes are going *up*, cocoa prices are going *down*
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-surpri...
This is actually pretty profound: the price paid to West African cocoa farmers is going *up*, and because of that the price we will pay for chocolate is going *down*.
Making the world a little fairer is making us all better off. This dynamic plays out more than we realize
Making the world a little fairer is making us all better off. This dynamic plays out more than we realize
October 31, 2025 at 1:53 PM
This is actually pretty profound: the price paid to West African cocoa farmers is going *up*, and because of that the price we will pay for chocolate is going *down*.
Making the world a little fairer is making us all better off. This dynamic plays out more than we realize
Making the world a little fairer is making us all better off. This dynamic plays out more than we realize
This is expected to increase cocoa production: it will be easier to buy pesticides and fertilizers, and farmers will be able to replace aging trees.
These expectations of increased production have contributed to the decline in cocoa prices in recent months
These expectations of increased production have contributed to the decline in cocoa prices in recent months
October 31, 2025 at 1:53 PM
This is expected to increase cocoa production: it will be easier to buy pesticides and fertilizers, and farmers will be able to replace aging trees.
These expectations of increased production have contributed to the decline in cocoa prices in recent months
These expectations of increased production have contributed to the decline in cocoa prices in recent months
A big part of the story is climate change.
Cocoa depends on precise climactic conditions (that's why production is concentrated in so few countries).
Periods of intense rainfall followed by extended drought harmed cocoa production and contributed to diseases ravaging cocoa pods
Cocoa depends on precise climactic conditions (that's why production is concentrated in so few countries).
Periods of intense rainfall followed by extended drought harmed cocoa production and contributed to diseases ravaging cocoa pods
October 31, 2025 at 1:53 PM
A big part of the story is climate change.
Cocoa depends on precise climactic conditions (that's why production is concentrated in so few countries).
Periods of intense rainfall followed by extended drought harmed cocoa production and contributed to diseases ravaging cocoa pods
Cocoa depends on precise climactic conditions (that's why production is concentrated in so few countries).
Periods of intense rainfall followed by extended drought harmed cocoa production and contributed to diseases ravaging cocoa pods
The Ivory Coast and Ghana's cocoa harvests were terrible in 2023/24, followed by another bad year in 2024/25.
The sudden shortage of cocoa beans sent cocoa markets into panic, with prices quadrupling in the span of a year
(This year's chocolate is largely made from 2024 beans)
The sudden shortage of cocoa beans sent cocoa markets into panic, with prices quadrupling in the span of a year
(This year's chocolate is largely made from 2024 beans)
October 31, 2025 at 1:53 PM
The Ivory Coast and Ghana's cocoa harvests were terrible in 2023/24, followed by another bad year in 2024/25.
The sudden shortage of cocoa beans sent cocoa markets into panic, with prices quadrupling in the span of a year
(This year's chocolate is largely made from 2024 beans)
The sudden shortage of cocoa beans sent cocoa markets into panic, with prices quadrupling in the span of a year
(This year's chocolate is largely made from 2024 beans)
I think this is a clarifying quote for setting the terms of the debate.
And I don’t think it implies that only innovation matters or that climate should be deprioritized.
Climate change doesn’t need to be apocalyptic to merit 4% of rich country budgets going towards international climate finance
And I don’t think it implies that only innovation matters or that climate should be deprioritized.
Climate change doesn’t need to be apocalyptic to merit 4% of rich country budgets going towards international climate finance
October 28, 2025 at 10:06 PM
I think this is a clarifying quote for setting the terms of the debate.
And I don’t think it implies that only innovation matters or that climate should be deprioritized.
Climate change doesn’t need to be apocalyptic to merit 4% of rich country budgets going towards international climate finance
And I don’t think it implies that only innovation matters or that climate should be deprioritized.
Climate change doesn’t need to be apocalyptic to merit 4% of rich country budgets going towards international climate finance
ICYMI my Substack from earlier this week on aid, the new media environment, and the tradeoffs involved in meeting people where they're at, give it a read
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/mrbeast-is...
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/mrbeast-is...
October 26, 2025 at 7:34 PM
ICYMI my Substack from earlier this week on aid, the new media environment, and the tradeoffs involved in meeting people where they're at, give it a read
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/mrbeast-is...
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/mrbeast-is...
This is fascinating
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
October 24, 2025 at 11:56 PM
This is fascinating
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
And it is very intentionally calibrated to media incentives in a saturated attention economy.
Clickbait-y title and thumbnail! Noises! Flashes! Not much nuance, and a very direct message.
My favorite piece of optimization for short-attention spans is the random insertion of a fireball effect
Clickbait-y title and thumbnail! Noises! Flashes! Not much nuance, and a very direct message.
My favorite piece of optimization for short-attention spans is the random insertion of a fireball effect
October 21, 2025 at 3:36 PM
And it is very intentionally calibrated to media incentives in a saturated attention economy.
Clickbait-y title and thumbnail! Noises! Flashes! Not much nuance, and a very direct message.
My favorite piece of optimization for short-attention spans is the random insertion of a fireball effect
Clickbait-y title and thumbnail! Noises! Flashes! Not much nuance, and a very direct message.
My favorite piece of optimization for short-attention spans is the random insertion of a fireball effect
I'd bet a lot of my readers don't know who MrBeast is, bc we have weird media consumption habits.
But he's the 4th most followed person in the world, and he has repeatedly launched (somewhat cringy) anti-poverty initiatives.
Non-weirdos are learning about aid from MrBeast more than anyone else
But he's the 4th most followed person in the world, and he has repeatedly launched (somewhat cringy) anti-poverty initiatives.
Non-weirdos are learning about aid from MrBeast more than anyone else
October 21, 2025 at 3:36 PM
I'd bet a lot of my readers don't know who MrBeast is, bc we have weird media consumption habits.
But he's the 4th most followed person in the world, and he has repeatedly launched (somewhat cringy) anti-poverty initiatives.
Non-weirdos are learning about aid from MrBeast more than anyone else
But he's the 4th most followed person in the world, and he has repeatedly launched (somewhat cringy) anti-poverty initiatives.
Non-weirdos are learning about aid from MrBeast more than anyone else
Really loved this profile of Madagascar's student protesters, and in particular how vivid the photos make it www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/w...
October 20, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Really loved this profile of Madagascar's student protesters, and in particular how vivid the photos make it www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/w...