Tim Bale
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timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale
@timbale.bsky.social
27K followers 1K following 3.2K posts
Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London & author of The Conservative Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation (now out in paperback). The bits and pieces I do for websites and newspapers turn up eventually at https://proftimbale.com
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timbale.bsky.social
I'm so old I remember PEx starting out as a Cameroon, liberal Tory, modernising think tank. It's a funny old world, as Lady Thatcher once said.
November 10, 2025 at 12:40 PM
timbale.bsky.social
As per, @andrewrawnsley.bsky.social nails it observer.co.uk/news/columni...
The conclusion to be drawn from all this is not – sorry, Zack, and regrets, Zarah – that tomorrow belongs to the Polanski or Sultana versions of the radical left. The message from America is a reminder that charismatic leadership counts. So does knowing your electorate and understanding how to connect with it. Talking to voters about what they care about in language they understand is essential. And the price of putting a roof over your head and food on the table has tremendous electoral potency when people are struggling to do both. Zohran Mamdani may be a shiny new thing, but the moral of these elections is as old as the Appalachian mountains.
November 9, 2025 at 8:59 AM
timbale.bsky.social
A propos of nothing, the young woman remembering Benjamin Disraeli in this 1885 painting by Frank Bramley is the spitting image of the ("Strike") actor, Holliday Grainger.
November 8, 2025 at 8:35 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Inch by inch, things are getting worse not better? www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
November 6, 2025 at 3:22 PM
timbale.bsky.social
Bohemian Catsody

(Birthday card c/o emotional-rescue.com)
November 4, 2025 at 9:12 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Is there's anybody in the broadcast media who hasn't been taking it seriously (if not assuming it's virtually nailed-on) for literally months?
Article by Nick Robinson, saying it's time the country took the prospect of Farage as PM seriously.
November 3, 2025 at 6:21 PM
timbale.bsky.social
Just prepping Week 10's lecture on Reform UK. Second PowerPoint slide. Too much?
Reform UK's original 5 MPs with crosses blanking out the faces of the two who've left.
November 3, 2025 at 5:48 PM
timbale.bsky.social
Another great clunking debunking by Emma Monk. Do follow her!
November 3, 2025 at 4:32 PM
timbale.bsky.social
Pristine condition. What am I bid? 🤣
November 3, 2025 at 8:00 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Afternoon, @anandmenon.bsky.social
November 1, 2025 at 4:57 PM
timbale.bsky.social
The narcissism of small differences (plus a data-gathering exercise, natch).
Tory Party letter to persuade people to sign a petition on annoying music on public transport - which is really just a data-gathering exercise for them,
November 1, 2025 at 8:59 AM
timbale.bsky.social
c/o @resfoundation.bsky.social
The Government’s child poverty strategy is due around the same time as the Budget, and the big question is how far the Government will go on scrapping the two-child limit on benefit support. Chart of the Week, taken from our latest briefing, makes the case for a full repeal of the policy. With the current policy, child poverty rates will hit an historic high of 34 per cent (4.8 million children) by the end of the Parliament. The half measures reportedly being considered – a three-child limit, reduced support after two children, or lifting it for working families – do reduce child poverty from where it otherwise would have been. Crucially, however, they're insufficient to prevent child poverty from rising over the Parliament. Each of these measures would still see child poverty rates higher in 2029-30 than in 2024-25. Fully scrapping the two-child limit *would* achieve that falling child poverty milestone (and see at least 130,000 fewer children in poverty than the compromise options) – but only just. If the Government really wants to reduce child poverty – say back to levels last seen in the late 2010s – additional policies, like scrapping the benefit cap and re-linking housing support to local rents, would also be needed.
October 31, 2025 at 12:22 PM
timbale.bsky.social
"To govern is to lose". Discuss.
Graph showing huge net unfavourability for Labour and the Conservatives and growing support for Reform UK
October 31, 2025 at 10:35 AM
timbale.bsky.social
(Source: encompass-europe.com/cartoons#car...)
Putin pretends to throw a ball labelled peace for Trump pictured as a dog who's fooled by it - every time!
October 31, 2025 at 9:46 AM
timbale.bsky.social
"Reform is fundamentally an English nationalist party. The more people think of themselves as English rather than British or something else, the more they were likely to vote Reform in the 2024 election." (Source: theconversation.com/why-did-the-...) #Caerphilly #ReformUK
October 31, 2025 at 8:41 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Crikey - Bagehot is going to upset and outrage a lot of people with this. Takes (the proverbial) balls of steel to go up against conventional wisdom like this.
Allowing victims a hallowed status in British politics ignores the fact that state failures are collective scandals. Hillsborough could easily have happened at another stadium to other fans. Grenfell was not the only tower caked in flammable material. Grooming gangs were so widespread that any vulnerable girl could have been dragged in. When victims play such a large role, what should be society’s problem becomes an individual one. What is left is a mangled Thatcherite philosophy: there is no such thing as society, only victims and their families. In this way British politics becomes an autocracy of lived experience, in which politicians advise and victims decide. For a politician as vapid as Sir Keir or as cynical as Mr Farage perhaps this is no bad thing. A world in which rape victims are compelled to argue with each other over the future of a government minister, cheered on by elected politicians, is a depressing one. But it is the one Britain inhabits. It is a final dereliction of duty to people the state has already failed once and now does again
October 31, 2025 at 8:26 AM
timbale.bsky.social
If you like cinema but, like me, occasionally forget what you've been to see a few months/years back, logging them on @letterboxd.social is a great way of fixing that.
Picture-list of the movies I've seen over the last year or so.
October 31, 2025 at 6:55 AM
timbale.bsky.social
OK, I admit it, the below-the-line comments on ConHome are one of my guilty pleasures.
've always been a bit surprised, not that the tory party is polling so low, but given their utterly appalling record in office, that they are polling quite so high. 17% is a fair old chunk of people in the UK. . But then I remember that the tories deliberately facilitated the arrival of ten million people into the UK, both legally and illegally. There about 60 million adults in the UK and the tories brought in 10 million of them. 10 divided by 60 is 16.8%. . I think we have a possible explanation for their support base.
October 30, 2025 at 5:04 PM
timbale.bsky.social
This'll cheer Sarah Pochin up.
(Source: observer.co.uk/news/columni...)
October 30, 2025 at 4:21 PM
timbale.bsky.social
#PochinsPeople New NatCen polling suggests 'Farage's filly' (sic) was preaching to the converted when she talked about being driven mad by black and Asian people appearing in adverts (Source: www.ft.com/content/81b8...)
Graph showing voters for Reform and the Tories are even more worried about migration and multiculturalism than US Republicans.
October 30, 2025 at 7:31 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Colour me Janan. (www.ft.com/content/00e9...)
October 30, 2025 at 6:10 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Just prepped this slide on party membership numbers for a class. Shout if you think/know I've got it wrong as plenty of time to change it. PS I suspect the Tory figure is below 100,000 now but can't prove it, of course. PPS If anyone has an official/updated figure for Plaid, I'd love to know it!
October 29, 2025 at 4:05 PM
timbale.bsky.social
#TwoBlocPolitics
YouGov polling showing big differences between Green, Lab, and Lib Dem voters vs Con and Reform voters on the question of whether Reform, its policies and its voters are racist.
October 29, 2025 at 12:33 PM
timbale.bsky.social
This explains a lot (Source: www.ft.com/content/20d6... )
Bar chart showing big reductions in growth rates in advanced economies between 1950 and 2025.
October 29, 2025 at 6:41 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Don't, as the saying goes, let the perfect be the enemy of the good, and this it seems to me is good. The Renters' Rights Act (graphic care of the ipaper).
1 Evictions ❌ Before: Landlords could remove tenants with two months’ notice and no reason under Section 21. ➡️ After: Section 21 evictions are abolished. Tenants are protected for the first year and can only be evicted if landlords sell, move in or tenants breach their contract. 2 Tenancy structure ❌ Before: Most renters were tied to fixed-term contracts. ➡️ After: All tenancies become open-ended. Tenants can leave with two months’ notice and stay indefinitely if they wish. 3 Rent increases ❌ Before: Landlords could raise rents freely at renewal. ➡️ After: Rent rises limited to once a year, with two months’ notice and increases linked to market rates. 4 Housing standards ❌ Before: Safety rules applied mainly to social housing. ➡️ After: The Decent Homes Standard and Awaab’s Law extend to private rentals, forcing repairs of damp and mould within deadlines. 5 Pets ❌ Before: Landlords could refuse pets outright. ➡️ After: Requests must be considered reasonably, but landlords may require pet insurance. 6 Enforcement and redress ❌ Before: Councils had limited powers, and tenants faced lengthy court cases. ➡️ After: All landlords must join a national database and ombudsman. Councils can fine up to £40,000 and reclaim up to 24 months’ rent from offenders.
October 28, 2025 at 7:42 PM