The Intrinsic Contrarian
@ticontrarian.bsky.social
Economics, finance, and investing from an intrinsically contrarian point of view.
substack.com/@intrinsiccontrarian
substack.com/@intrinsiccontrarian
"Coinbase maintains that digital tokens are like Beanie Babies or baseball cards — entities that are traded in decentralized markets with the hope that they will appreciate in value but are not securities." #Bitcoin
www.reuters.com/legal/transa...
www.reuters.com/legal/transa...
In Coinbase enforcement action, US SEC tries to capitalize on win in little-noticed case
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission scored a big victory in a small enforcement action last Friday when a federal judge in Seattle granted a default judgment against a no-show defendant accused of trading crypto tokens based on insider information he obtained from a since-fired Coinbase employee.
www.reuters.com
March 11, 2024 at 5:12 PM
"Coinbase maintains that digital tokens are like Beanie Babies or baseball cards — entities that are traded in decentralized markets with the hope that they will appreciate in value but are not securities." #Bitcoin
www.reuters.com/legal/transa...
www.reuters.com/legal/transa...
Reminder that #California #MinimumWage for fast food workers increases 25% in April. #inflation This will drive up the minimum wage for the entire state as businesses compete for labor. Plenty of inflationary headwinds still alive and well.
March 8, 2024 at 4:40 PM
Reminder that #California #MinimumWage for fast food workers increases 25% in April. #inflation This will drive up the minimum wage for the entire state as businesses compete for labor. Plenty of inflationary headwinds still alive and well.
#FederalDebt to #GDP is at levels not seen since #WWII. This is unfortunate given that we aren't funding a world war and the increase in debt is the result of stimulus measures that started with the dotcom bust in 2000 and have persisted through the housing bust and the pandemic.
February 29, 2024 at 6:45 PM
#FederalDebt to #GDP is at levels not seen since #WWII. This is unfortunate given that we aren't funding a world war and the increase in debt is the result of stimulus measures that started with the dotcom bust in 2000 and have persisted through the housing bust and the pandemic.
#Magnificent7 market cap is $13 trillion. If you wanted just a 10% return on the equity, they'd need to throw off $1.3T in free cash flow. Total revenue ~$1.7T. FCF ~$250B. Assuming constant FCF margin they need $9T in revenue to fit into current valuation. #bubble #stockmarket
February 17, 2024 at 4:10 PM
#Magnificent7 market cap is $13 trillion. If you wanted just a 10% return on the equity, they'd need to throw off $1.3T in free cash flow. Total revenue ~$1.7T. FCF ~$250B. Assuming constant FCF margin they need $9T in revenue to fit into current valuation. #bubble #stockmarket
Everyone buying $NVDA today at 730+ where were you 5 years ago at 39?
February 16, 2024 at 3:36 PM
Everyone buying $NVDA today at 730+ where were you 5 years ago at 39?
They say you can't time markets, but every trade is timing the market. Are you timing it at a good price or a bad price? #StockMarket
If you bought $SPX at the top of dotcom you're up 200%+. If you waited 9 years and bought at the bottom of the housing bust you're up 600%+.
If you bought $SPX at the top of dotcom you're up 200%+. If you waited 9 years and bought at the bottom of the housing bust you're up 600%+.
February 16, 2024 at 2:38 PM
They say you can't time markets, but every trade is timing the market. Are you timing it at a good price or a bad price? #StockMarket
If you bought $SPX at the top of dotcom you're up 200%+. If you waited 9 years and bought at the bottom of the housing bust you're up 600%+.
If you bought $SPX at the top of dotcom you're up 200%+. If you waited 9 years and bought at the bottom of the housing bust you're up 600%+.
Requiring workers to work in-office will increase pollution and global warming due to commute and office energy requirements. It seems the environmentally responsible thing to do would be to encourage more remote work, not less. #returntooffice #pollution
February 15, 2024 at 6:04 PM
Requiring workers to work in-office will increase pollution and global warming due to commute and office energy requirements. It seems the environmentally responsible thing to do would be to encourage more remote work, not less. #returntooffice #pollution
February 15, 2024 at 7:46 AM
Down the Sideways Market: Stock Markets Don't Always Go Up #stockmarkets #sideways
open.substack.com/pub/intrinsi...
open.substack.com/pub/intrinsi...
February 14, 2024 at 5:25 PM
Down the Sideways Market: Stock Markets Don't Always Go Up #stockmarkets #sideways
open.substack.com/pub/intrinsi...
open.substack.com/pub/intrinsi...
With #AI the talk of the town, now is the time to get into chip stocks. Despite the recent run-up, being #overweight in the sector could result in hefty gains.
February 14, 2024 at 2:47 PM
With #AI the talk of the town, now is the time to get into chip stocks. Despite the recent run-up, being #overweight in the sector could result in hefty gains.
Using #FederalReserve assets as a proxy, the US has been in a #recession since 2007.
February 14, 2024 at 2:24 PM
Using #FederalReserve assets as a proxy, the US has been in a #recession since 2007.
#California bill #AB1228 will increase fast food worker minimum wage to $20 starting April 1. This will effectively make the statewide minimum $20 as businesses compete for labor. More #inflation to come. Oh, and my #FrontierFios bill just went up 12.5%. #HigherForLonger
February 14, 2024 at 1:07 PM
#California bill #AB1228 will increase fast food worker minimum wage to $20 starting April 1. This will effectively make the statewide minimum $20 as businesses compete for labor. More #inflation to come. Oh, and my #FrontierFios bill just went up 12.5%. #HigherForLonger
#AI is in the early hype phase that fuels all bubbles. It's exciting. It's going to change the world. And ultimately it will become a #commodity. Common knowledge will come cheap. The value will be in the uncommon, and likely proprietary, knowledge.
February 14, 2024 at 12:49 PM
#AI is in the early hype phase that fuels all bubbles. It's exciting. It's going to change the world. And ultimately it will become a #commodity. Common knowledge will come cheap. The value will be in the uncommon, and likely proprietary, knowledge.
If you bought $NVDA for $1.8T, current market cap, and wanted just a 10% return, a paltry expectation, FCF needs to be $180B, 3x annualized Q4 revenue. Assuming a generous 30% FCF margin, today's revenue needs to be $600B, 8x annualized Q4. Good luck.
February 14, 2024 at 5:59 AM
If you bought $NVDA for $1.8T, current market cap, and wanted just a 10% return, a paltry expectation, FCF needs to be $180B, 3x annualized Q4 revenue. Assuming a generous 30% FCF margin, today's revenue needs to be $600B, 8x annualized Q4. Good luck.
The Opportunity of Being Wrong
intrinsiccontrarian.substack.com/p/the-opport...
intrinsiccontrarian.substack.com/p/the-opport...
February 13, 2024 at 11:57 PM
The Opportunity of Being Wrong
intrinsiccontrarian.substack.com/p/the-opport...
intrinsiccontrarian.substack.com/p/the-opport...
The only time you should be happy about prices going up is when you're selling.
February 13, 2024 at 3:55 PM
The only time you should be happy about prices going up is when you're selling.
During periods of euphoria like we have with Bitcoin, the Mag 7, etc., you have to ask yourself who is right, the buyers or the sellers? The sellers seem more than happy to sell into the buyer-driven frenzy.
Bitcoin climbed to the highest price since December 2021, aided by the record-breaking debut of US exchange-traded funds for the token
Bitcoin Eyes Longest Winning Run in a Year as ETFs Attracts Inflows
Bitcoin climbed to the highest price since December 2021, aided by the record-breaking debut of US exchange-traded funds for the token.
www.bloomberg.com
February 13, 2024 at 3:25 PM
During periods of euphoria like we have with Bitcoin, the Mag 7, etc., you have to ask yourself who is right, the buyers or the sellers? The sellers seem more than happy to sell into the buyer-driven frenzy.
It's difficult to bring down inflation when you're running $2 trillion deficits and Federal debt to GDP is at 120% and climbing. Irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies continue to fuel the two decade long bubble.
Breaking: US consumer prices rose by more than forecast in January, highlighting the bumpy road to disinflation
Live: Analysis of US CPI Report for January
www.bloomberg.com
February 13, 2024 at 1:54 PM
It's difficult to bring down inflation when you're running $2 trillion deficits and Federal debt to GDP is at 120% and climbing. Irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies continue to fuel the two decade long bubble.
Reposted by The Intrinsic Contrarian
Breaking: US consumer prices rose by more than forecast in January, highlighting the bumpy road to disinflation
Live: Analysis of US CPI Report for January
www.bloomberg.com
February 13, 2024 at 1:39 PM
Breaking: US consumer prices rose by more than forecast in January, highlighting the bumpy road to disinflation
Every Bitcoin purchased by an ETF is a Bitcoin removed from circulation rendering it useless for anything but speculation.
February 12, 2024 at 8:17 PM
Every Bitcoin purchased by an ETF is a Bitcoin removed from circulation rendering it useless for anything but speculation.
Buying is Selling
open.substack.com/pub/intrinsi...
open.substack.com/pub/intrinsi...
February 12, 2024 at 8:50 AM
Buying is Selling
open.substack.com/pub/intrinsi...
open.substack.com/pub/intrinsi...