Thomas Aubrey
@thomasaubreycca.bsky.social
Credit risk, asset allocation, infrastructure, productivity, liberalism. @lse-ei.bsky.social @imperialcollegeldn (CSEP), @bennettschool.cam.ac.uk Author & founder @ http://creditcapitaladvisory.com 歐 睿
This chart gets to the heart of the issue. I led a team that did the MTM for the various vintages of sub-prime assets. The question you need to ask is why did investors buy 2006 and 2007 when the MTM valuation was less then 30 cents to the dollar? And House prices hasd been falling since 2006?
November 11, 2025 at 6:52 AM
This chart gets to the heart of the issue. I led a team that did the MTM for the various vintages of sub-prime assets. The question you need to ask is why did investors buy 2006 and 2007 when the MTM valuation was less then 30 cents to the dollar? And House prices hasd been falling since 2006?
played around with wage data, closed economies become more inflationary. Here is a summary of my econometric analysis for the UK.
October 14, 2025 at 3:54 PM
played around with wage data, closed economies become more inflationary. Here is a summary of my econometric analysis for the UK.
A land value tax is complex to implement but a proportional council tax gets you most of the way there. For infrastructure you would need land value capture (see £ by region) & business rates needs to remove plant & machinery from valuation centreforprogressivecapitalism-archive.net/wp-content/u...
September 29, 2025 at 11:28 AM
A land value tax is complex to implement but a proportional council tax gets you most of the way there. For infrastructure you would need land value capture (see £ by region) & business rates needs to remove plant & machinery from valuation centreforprogressivecapitalism-archive.net/wp-content/u...
standards and included public corporation debt that is paid back by market sources in its fiscal rule – in stark contrast to the pro-growth fiscally conservative rules devised by the Bundesbank for the EU resulting in a much higher infrastructure stock. The UK's centralised approach means that
September 23, 2025 at 8:59 AM
standards and included public corporation debt that is paid back by market sources in its fiscal rule – in stark contrast to the pro-growth fiscally conservative rules devised by the Bundesbank for the EU resulting in a much higher infrastructure stock. The UK's centralised approach means that
the UK’s strategy of relying on increases in future taxation to pay back sovereign debt as the far riskier bet compared to the Dutch public corporation model based on hypothecated cash flows (modelled on the UK's prior approach!) But HMT has unilaterally diverged from international accounting
September 23, 2025 at 8:59 AM
the UK’s strategy of relying on increases in future taxation to pay back sovereign debt as the far riskier bet compared to the Dutch public corporation model based on hypothecated cash flows (modelled on the UK's prior approach!) But HMT has unilaterally diverged from international accounting
Looking forward to talking about how liberalism can reinvent itself through a new public policy framework at the Henry George Foundation Open Day. schoolofphilosophy.org/products/hgf...
September 18, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Looking forward to talking about how liberalism can reinvent itself through a new public policy framework at the Henry George Foundation Open Day. schoolofphilosophy.org/products/hgf...
is why the Chancellor must be focus on growth in her Autumn budget. A disaggregation of the data shows 2 bright spots. Financial Services grew due to increased labour share as it is a high value-added sector. Information & Communication grew due to an increase in both value-added & labour share. But
September 9, 2025 at 8:30 AM
is why the Chancellor must be focus on growth in her Autumn budget. A disaggregation of the data shows 2 bright spots. Financial Services grew due to increased labour share as it is a high value-added sector. Information & Communication grew due to an increase in both value-added & labour share. But
the spread differential averaged 100 bps. The UK budget caused yields to jump by 30 bps and has subsequently drifted much wider to 180bps above NL yields. HMT's rejection of international accounting standards means they actively distinguish between PPP contingent liabilities and public corporation
September 1, 2025 at 4:32 PM
the spread differential averaged 100 bps. The UK budget caused yields to jump by 30 bps and has subsequently drifted much wider to 180bps above NL yields. HMT's rejection of international accounting standards means they actively distinguish between PPP contingent liabilities and public corporation
Good piece Simon. In my lecture to the Chartered Institute for Securities Investment earlier this year I forecast much higher UK yields due to the Reeves Oct 24 budget. There are two main reasons for the negative bond market reaction. 1) The budget rejected ESA 2010 public finance accounting rules
September 1, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Good piece Simon. In my lecture to the Chartered Institute for Securities Investment earlier this year I forecast much higher UK yields due to the Reeves Oct 24 budget. There are two main reasons for the negative bond market reaction. 1) The budget rejected ESA 2010 public finance accounting rules
projects need to be run by central government (eg. MOD) which results in challenging governance arrangements (no skin in the game), many infrastructure projects (below) could be run at arms length using self-funded public corporations resulting in improved governance and delivery. However HMT
August 20, 2025 at 8:47 AM
projects need to be run by central government (eg. MOD) which results in challenging governance arrangements (no skin in the game), many infrastructure projects (below) could be run at arms length using self-funded public corporations resulting in improved governance and delivery. However HMT
Latest NISTA Annual Report out on the UK infrastructure pipeline. www.gov.uk/government/p... Highlights include an increasing number of projects falling into RED (Successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable) as the overall no. of projects falls. See chart below. While many of these
August 20, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Latest NISTA Annual Report out on the UK infrastructure pipeline. www.gov.uk/government/p... Highlights include an increasing number of projects falling into RED (Successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable) as the overall no. of projects falls. See chart below. While many of these
hardly any investment through self-funding public corporations whereas FR, DE & NL fund between 68% -87% of GDP. In essence HMT has taken the fiscal conservative measures from ESA 2010 but discarded the pro-growth ones. The rising economic challenges faced by the government are largely self-imposed.
August 6, 2025 at 6:48 AM
hardly any investment through self-funding public corporations whereas FR, DE & NL fund between 68% -87% of GDP. In essence HMT has taken the fiscal conservative measures from ESA 2010 but discarded the pro-growth ones. The rising economic challenges faced by the government are largely self-imposed.
Very sad to hear that Meghnad Desai has passed away. He was one of the most brilliant thinkers of his generation and extremely gracious with his time. Testing Monetarism & Marx’s Revenge remain important books relevant to today’s challenges. When he set up the Global Governance Institute at the LSE
July 31, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Very sad to hear that Meghnad Desai has passed away. He was one of the most brilliant thinkers of his generation and extremely gracious with his time. Testing Monetarism & Marx’s Revenge remain important books relevant to today’s challenges. When he set up the Global Governance Institute at the LSE
Enjoyed the piece. There are strong reasons for liberal economies to put in place capital controls due to exchange rate distortions. Debt & equity portfolios + debt instruments should remain unrestricted with the focus on FDI (Property and overall company control). From my 2022 book on liberalism..
July 22, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Enjoyed the piece. There are strong reasons for liberal economies to put in place capital controls due to exchange rate distortions. Debt & equity portfolios + debt instruments should remain unrestricted with the focus on FDI (Property and overall company control). From my 2022 book on liberalism..
Why does the market keep underestimating UK inflation? Services inflation will continue to remain elevated given the UK economy has become more closed. It's not that complicated. www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest
July 16, 2025 at 6:37 AM
Why does the market keep underestimating UK inflation? Services inflation will continue to remain elevated given the UK economy has become more closed. It's not that complicated. www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest
contingent liabilities should be treated the same by HMT in accordance with international accounting rules as per my note with Con Keating here. longfinance.net/news/pamphle... Below is the NAO
summary of HS1 costs for UK tax payers.
summary of HS1 costs for UK tax payers.
July 7, 2025 at 6:04 AM
contingent liabilities should be treated the same by HMT in accordance with international accounting rules as per my note with Con Keating here. longfinance.net/news/pamphle... Below is the NAO
summary of HS1 costs for UK tax payers.
summary of HS1 costs for UK tax payers.
internationally recognized accounting rules shutting off massive amounts of investment not predicated on future taxation. In FR, NL & DE these liabilities (68% - 87% of GDP) create assets and crucially do not place additional pressure on the public finances. The 2% figure is the biggest own goal the
June 27, 2025 at 6:44 AM
internationally recognized accounting rules shutting off massive amounts of investment not predicated on future taxation. In FR, NL & DE these liabilities (68% - 87% of GDP) create assets and crucially do not place additional pressure on the public finances. The 2% figure is the biggest own goal the
The continual HS2 overspend is a function of the governance crisis at the heart of infrastructure policy as the UK is a Herrschaftstaat where overcentralisation struggles with Hayek's knowledge question. European projects tend to follow an ordoliberal Gemeinschaftstaat as noted in my last book.
June 22, 2025 at 6:30 AM
The continual HS2 overspend is a function of the governance crisis at the heart of infrastructure policy as the UK is a Herrschaftstaat where overcentralisation struggles with Hayek's knowledge question. European projects tend to follow an ordoliberal Gemeinschaftstaat as noted in my last book.
the UK. The extent of the increase in investment from public corporations can be inferred from overall liabilities. FR, DE & NL between 68%-87% of GDP. Eg. This includes the debt of KfW in DE and BNG in NL who finance large-scale projects Other off-balance sheet projects include the debt for the
June 15, 2025 at 7:17 AM
the UK. The extent of the increase in investment from public corporations can be inferred from overall liabilities. FR, DE & NL between 68%-87% of GDP. Eg. This includes the debt of KfW in DE and BNG in NL who finance large-scale projects Other off-balance sheet projects include the debt for the
UK gilt yields wider by by 6 bps this am on rumours of "Spending Splurge". Will be interesting to see if this widens further during the speech.
June 11, 2025 at 10:09 AM
UK gilt yields wider by by 6 bps this am on rumours of "Spending Splurge". Will be interesting to see if this widens further during the speech.
experienced growth in both within & between effects (green). Professional & Scientific breaks down into diverse subsectors which have little in common with each other. Although all subsectors experienced rapid growth in real GVA their value added per hour is starkly different reflecting level of
June 3, 2025 at 7:40 AM
experienced growth in both within & between effects (green). Professional & Scientific breaks down into diverse subsectors which have little in common with each other. Although all subsectors experienced rapid growth in real GVA their value added per hour is starkly different reflecting level of
UK Productivity Update! Between 2019-2024 productivity grew at just 0.4% pa compared to 2.6% pa between 1997-2006. www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/blog/accounting-firms-productivity-growth/ A disaggregation of the contribution by sectors reveals this performance has largely been driven by the public
June 3, 2025 at 7:40 AM
UK Productivity Update! Between 2019-2024 productivity grew at just 0.4% pa compared to 2.6% pa between 1997-2006. www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/blog/accounting-firms-productivity-growth/ A disaggregation of the contribution by sectors reveals this performance has largely been driven by the public
Annualised UK CPI jumps to 3.5% which is unsurprising, but services inflation at 5.4% continues to indicate persistent inflationary pressure. www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
May 21, 2025 at 6:19 AM
Annualised UK CPI jumps to 3.5% which is unsurprising, but services inflation at 5.4% continues to indicate persistent inflationary pressure. www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
A rainy day to be driving across Ukraine yesterday, but it was great to be in Ukraine!
May 11, 2025 at 7:07 AM
A rainy day to be driving across Ukraine yesterday, but it was great to be in Ukraine!
Good piece, Eric. One challenge for liberals is protectionism and a closed society is perhaps more of an "American value" than is generally assumed. lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2018/03/trum...
April 6, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Good piece, Eric. One challenge for liberals is protectionism and a closed society is perhaps more of an "American value" than is generally assumed. lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2018/03/trum...