October 14, 2025 at 8:15 AM
I quickly threw the ChatGPT Midwest proposal in railmapper.net and ridership is decent at 27,000 per rail-km (2.5x Spain).
The economic viability stands or falls (as always) with the construction cost assumption. With ChatGPT’s assumed $21.5m per kilometer, you get a manageable -7% loss margin.
The economic viability stands or falls (as always) with the construction cost assumption. With ChatGPT’s assumed $21.5m per kilometer, you get a manageable -7% loss margin.
October 13, 2025 at 8:43 PM
I quickly threw the ChatGPT Midwest proposal in railmapper.net and ridership is decent at 27,000 per rail-km (2.5x Spain).
The economic viability stands or falls (as always) with the construction cost assumption. With ChatGPT’s assumed $21.5m per kilometer, you get a manageable -7% loss margin.
The economic viability stands or falls (as always) with the construction cost assumption. With ChatGPT’s assumed $21.5m per kilometer, you get a manageable -7% loss margin.
India is looking good (and indeed why I had to fix the performance issues): railmapper.net/project/indi...
September 29, 2025 at 10:30 AM
India is looking good (and indeed why I had to fix the performance issues): railmapper.net/project/indi...
You can read more about how Rail Mapper works in this document: docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Feel free to leave comments!
(I do recommend reading it in the mobile app or on the desktop, as images are embarrassingly low quality on mobile web)
Feel free to leave comments!
(I do recommend reading it in the mobile app or on the desktop, as images are embarrassingly low quality on mobile web)
September 2, 2025 at 8:05 PM
You can read more about how Rail Mapper works in this document: docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Feel free to leave comments!
(I do recommend reading it in the mobile app or on the desktop, as images are embarrassingly low quality on mobile web)
Feel free to leave comments!
(I do recommend reading it in the mobile app or on the desktop, as images are embarrassingly low quality on mobile web)
By default, the tool includes a dozen example networks to give an idea of how it works.
Take a look at for example:
France railmapper.net/project/fran...
US northeast railmapper.net/project/nort...
Indonesia railmapper.net/project/indo...
India railmapper.net/project/indi...
Take a look at for example:
France railmapper.net/project/fran...
US northeast railmapper.net/project/nort...
Indonesia railmapper.net/project/indo...
India railmapper.net/project/indi...
September 2, 2025 at 8:05 PM
By default, the tool includes a dozen example networks to give an idea of how it works.
Take a look at for example:
France railmapper.net/project/fran...
US northeast railmapper.net/project/nort...
Indonesia railmapper.net/project/indo...
India railmapper.net/project/indi...
Take a look at for example:
France railmapper.net/project/fran...
US northeast railmapper.net/project/nort...
Indonesia railmapper.net/project/indo...
India railmapper.net/project/indi...
A few people, like @alonlevy.bsky.social, take a different approach and try to ground their high speed rail proposals in the reality of usage and costs.
Like their plan for the United States: pedestrianobservations.com/2021/03/22/h...
Like their plan for the United States: pedestrianobservations.com/2021/03/22/h...
September 2, 2025 at 8:05 PM
A few people, like @alonlevy.bsky.social, take a different approach and try to ground their high speed rail proposals in the reality of usage and costs.
Like their plan for the United States: pedestrianobservations.com/2021/03/22/h...
Like their plan for the United States: pedestrianobservations.com/2021/03/22/h...
I love high speed trains and have used them in France, Germany, Italy, England, China, Japan, United States, and Indonesia!
September 2, 2025 at 7:59 PM
I love high speed trains and have used them in France, Germany, Italy, England, China, Japan, United States, and Indonesia!
All distances in the Northwest are under 500km, so the additional distance between Everett/Tacoma and Portland isn’t penalized but Portland does benefit from the increased passenger-kilometers. Hence the higher predicted revenue.
railmapper.net/project/nort...
railmapper.net/project/nort...
September 2, 2025 at 1:41 PM
All distances in the Northwest are under 500km, so the additional distance between Everett/Tacoma and Portland isn’t penalized but Portland does benefit from the increased passenger-kilometers. Hence the higher predicted revenue.
railmapper.net/project/nort...
railmapper.net/project/nort...
Alon has a travel time version (2h15m instead of 500km minimum threshold?) of the model.
The tool currently doesn’t take that into account, but I’m going to see if I can implement it in version 2.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
The tool currently doesn’t take that into account, but I’m going to see if I can implement it in version 2.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
September 2, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Alon has a travel time version (2h15m instead of 500km minimum threshold?) of the model.
The tool currently doesn’t take that into account, but I’m going to see if I can implement it in version 2.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
The tool currently doesn’t take that into account, but I’m going to see if I can implement it in version 2.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Made my programming slightly less terrible and brought matrix calculation down from 10 minutes to 58 milliseconds
August 26, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Made my programming slightly less terrible and brought matrix calculation down from 10 minutes to 58 milliseconds
It does look like the PPP conversion of €30 is 200k Rp, which makes 125k seem reasonable?
chrislross.com/PPPConverter/
chrislross.com/PPPConverter/
August 23, 2025 at 5:54 AM
It does look like the PPP conversion of €30 is 200k Rp, which makes 125k seem reasonable?
chrislross.com/PPPConverter/
chrislross.com/PPPConverter/
Though the apparent current plan seems set on failing, with the first red line avoiding lots of large cities (Damanhour, Tanta, Banha, Mansoura, Zagazig) for seemingly no reason
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-sp...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-sp...
August 23, 2025 at 5:24 AM
Though the apparent current plan seems set on failing, with the first red line avoiding lots of large cities (Damanhour, Tanta, Banha, Mansoura, Zagazig) for seemingly no reason
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-sp...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-sp...
Nice! I have added my version of an Egyptian network:
- Almost 2 billion passengers
- 1.22m passengers per rail-km
- $24b construction
- 30% profit margin
Though I expect fares should be $0.025 instead of $0.03 per km, but the tool can’t do that.
railmapper.net/project/egyp...
- Almost 2 billion passengers
- 1.22m passengers per rail-km
- $24b construction
- 30% profit margin
Though I expect fares should be $0.025 instead of $0.03 per km, but the tool can’t do that.
railmapper.net/project/egyp...
August 22, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Nice! I have added my version of an Egyptian network:
- Almost 2 billion passengers
- 1.22m passengers per rail-km
- $24b construction
- 30% profit margin
Though I expect fares should be $0.025 instead of $0.03 per km, but the tool can’t do that.
railmapper.net/project/egyp...
- Almost 2 billion passengers
- 1.22m passengers per rail-km
- $24b construction
- 30% profit margin
Though I expect fares should be $0.025 instead of $0.03 per km, but the tool can’t do that.
railmapper.net/project/egyp...
August 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
August 20, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Local NIMBYs obviously went all the way to the Supreme Court to try to block dedicated cycling infrastructure, so a bunch of the plans were delayed
www.raadvanstate.nl/@132662/2021...
www.raadvanstate.nl/@132662/2021...
August 20, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Local NIMBYs obviously went all the way to the Supreme Court to try to block dedicated cycling infrastructure, so a bunch of the plans were delayed
www.raadvanstate.nl/@132662/2021...
www.raadvanstate.nl/@132662/2021...
August 20, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Actually, 0.5^-2 = 4x. No?
August 17, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Actually, 0.5^-2 = 4x. No?
Though my model comes out lower than ChatGPT thinks HS2’s own estimates are (I haven’t checked that math yet)
August 17, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Though my model comes out lower than ChatGPT thinks HS2’s own estimates are (I haven’t checked that math yet)
That’s a much larger ridership increase than the 2x previous travel time elasticity analysis would suggest
pedestrianobservations.com/2022/06/05/i...
pedestrianobservations.com/2022/06/05/i...
August 17, 2025 at 4:33 PM
That’s a much larger ridership increase than the 2x previous travel time elasticity analysis would suggest
pedestrianobservations.com/2022/06/05/i...
pedestrianobservations.com/2022/06/05/i...
My model estimates that increasing the speed (and roughly halving the travel time) would increase ridership by about 2.5-3.5x
railmapper.net/project/hs2-...
railmapper.net/project/hs2-...
August 17, 2025 at 4:28 PM
My model estimates that increasing the speed (and roughly halving the travel time) would increase ridership by about 2.5-3.5x
railmapper.net/project/hs2-...
railmapper.net/project/hs2-...
My ~200,000 constant comes from trying to match your original NEC example.
I basically took the same model, changed the populations and then tried to match the overall ridership by adjusting the constant.
I basically took the same model, changed the populations and then tried to match the overall ridership by adjusting the constant.
August 16, 2025 at 1:42 AM
My ~200,000 constant comes from trying to match your original NEC example.
I basically took the same model, changed the populations and then tried to match the overall ridership by adjusting the constant.
I basically took the same model, changed the populations and then tried to match the overall ridership by adjusting the constant.
If you use the cities menu (button at the bottom of the screen on desktop), you can add coordinates while in manual mode
August 16, 2025 at 12:53 AM
If you use the cities menu (button at the bottom of the screen on desktop), you can add coordinates while in manual mode
Do you happen to have an idea why Siemens thinks they can build 2000km of rail in Egypt for just $8.7 billion?
That seems very cheap.
www.dw.com/en/egypt-sig...
That seems very cheap.
www.dw.com/en/egypt-sig...
August 14, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Do you happen to have an idea why Siemens thinks they can build 2000km of rail in Egypt for just $8.7 billion?
That seems very cheap.
www.dw.com/en/egypt-sig...
That seems very cheap.
www.dw.com/en/egypt-sig...
I added a high speed rail example network for Nigeria, which is a beast!
1.35 billion annual passengers, 4000 km network, 340k passengers per rail-km, +9.9% profit margin (despite 16% bond rate)
railmapper.net/project/nige...
1.35 billion annual passengers, 4000 km network, 340k passengers per rail-km, +9.9% profit margin (despite 16% bond rate)
railmapper.net/project/nige...
August 14, 2025 at 8:50 PM
I added a high speed rail example network for Nigeria, which is a beast!
1.35 billion annual passengers, 4000 km network, 340k passengers per rail-km, +9.9% profit margin (despite 16% bond rate)
railmapper.net/project/nige...
1.35 billion annual passengers, 4000 km network, 340k passengers per rail-km, +9.9% profit margin (despite 16% bond rate)
railmapper.net/project/nige...