António Afonso
@theiiiman.bsky.social
🇪🇺 🇵🇹 Professor of Economics, ISEG, University of Lisbon. President, REM–Research in Economics and Mathematics. Previous: ECB, CGD, IGCP, Ministry of Finance. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6926-2653
Also https://x.com/theIIIman
Also https://x.com/theIIIman
New 3-bedroom flat, 150 sq m, Avenidas Novas, Lisbon, 1500000 EUR. New 3-bedroom flat, 164 sq m, Porte de Namur, Brussels, 1000000 EUR. Price in Lisbon is 50% higher than in Brussels. Per capita income in Brussels is 100% higher than in Lisbon.
November 10, 2025 at 8:27 PM
New 3-bedroom flat, 150 sq m, Avenidas Novas, Lisbon, 1500000 EUR. New 3-bedroom flat, 164 sq m, Porte de Namur, Brussels, 1000000 EUR. Price in Lisbon is 50% higher than in Brussels. Per capita income in Brussels is 100% higher than in Lisbon.
Stock and sovereign returns linkages: time-varying causality and extreme-quantile determinants. Forthcoming, International Review of Financial Analysis. António Afonso, José Alves, Wojciech Grabowski, Sofia Monteiro.
October 19, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Stock and sovereign returns linkages: time-varying causality and extreme-quantile determinants. Forthcoming, International Review of Financial Analysis. António Afonso, José Alves, Wojciech Grabowski, Sofia Monteiro.
Happy to be in the World's top 1%! Elsevier Data Repository, Aug 2025. "Updated science-wide author databases of standardized citation indicators" elsevier.digitalcommonsdata.com/datasets/btc...
September 21, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Happy to be in the World's top 1%! Elsevier Data Repository, Aug 2025. "Updated science-wide author databases of standardized citation indicators" elsevier.digitalcommonsdata.com/datasets/btc...
www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu... A discretionary positive shock to the primary balance leads to a decrease in real government debt, a result consistent with a Monetary Dominant regime and sustainable fiscal practices.
September 6, 2025 at 12:02 PM
www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu... A discretionary positive shock to the primary balance leads to a decrease in real government debt, a result consistent with a Monetary Dominant regime and sustainable fiscal practices.
14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/events/2026/... Keynote: Roel Beetsma
August 28, 2025 at 7:22 PM
14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/events/2026/... Keynote: Roel Beetsma
August 7, 2025 at 3:05 PM
July 10, 2025 at 5:41 PM
lnkd.in/dkjH8fbV "Greater skewness is associated with higher sovereign bond yields and higher short-term interest rates. In contrast, an increase in debt concentration tends to reduce both sovereign bond yields and short-term interest rates."
June 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
lnkd.in/dkjH8fbV "Greater skewness is associated with higher sovereign bond yields and higher short-term interest rates. In contrast, an increase in debt concentration tends to reduce both sovereign bond yields and short-term interest rates."
lnkd.in/deQA9iiP Copernicus proposed a single unifying theory: the Quantity Theory of Money. In his 1526 tract, Copernicus identified the single common cause of all inflation as the general increase in the quantity of coins minted from any given metal basis.
June 11, 2025 at 9:54 AM
lnkd.in/deQA9iiP Copernicus proposed a single unifying theory: the Quantity Theory of Money. In his 1526 tract, Copernicus identified the single common cause of all inflation as the general increase in the quantity of coins minted from any given metal basis.
António Afonso, Jorge Ferreira. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/ "With 1,368 euro-denominated sovereign bonds issued between Q1:2018 and Q1:2022 in 19 Eurozone countries, we find that the PEPP was more effective in low-debt countries, but its effects diminished with higher debt levels."
May 5, 2025 at 5:44 PM
António Afonso, Jorge Ferreira. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/ "With 1,368 euro-denominated sovereign bonds issued between Q1:2018 and Q1:2022 in 19 Eurozone countries, we find that the PEPP was more effective in low-debt countries, but its effects diminished with higher debt levels."
"The Paradox of Macroprudential Policy and Sovereign Risk", forthcoming. António Afonso, André Teixeira. "Macroprudential policy lowers sovereign risk. The effect diminishes with excessive regulation or high debt. Paradoxically, macroprudential policy may increase public debt."
April 10, 2025 at 6:46 PM
"The Paradox of Macroprudential Policy and Sovereign Risk", forthcoming. António Afonso, André Teixeira. "Macroprudential policy lowers sovereign risk. The effect diminishes with excessive regulation or high debt. Paradoxically, macroprudential policy may increase public debt."
“Monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability: the case of the Euro Area” forthcoming, 2025. António Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta. In the Euro Area, Germany, Italy, Portugal, in Ricardian regimes, output and prices contract after monetary tightening.
April 8, 2025 at 10:32 AM
“Monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability: the case of the Euro Area” forthcoming, 2025. António Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta. In the Euro Area, Germany, Italy, Portugal, in Ricardian regimes, output and prices contract after monetary tightening.
“Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: a panel analysis of the Euro Area” forthcoming, 2025, JIMF. António Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta. "From 2001Q4 to 2021Q4 for 19 Euro Area countries, in the high-debt, low-sustainability regime, monetary tightening raises prices."
April 7, 2025 at 10:46 PM
“Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: a panel analysis of the Euro Area” forthcoming, 2025, JIMF. António Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta. "From 2001Q4 to 2021Q4 for 19 Euro Area countries, in the high-debt, low-sustainability regime, monetary tightening raises prices."
2024 REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics (rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt) Young Researcher Award. Congratulations to the students Gabriel Pereira, Tomás Kapandoglu, Maryam Moshkelgosha, Fernando Reis, and to the supervisors, Isabel Proença, Raquel Bernardino, Maria João Guedes, Luís Costa
April 3, 2025 at 11:57 AM
2024 REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics (rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt) Young Researcher Award. Congratulations to the students Gabriel Pereira, Tomás Kapandoglu, Maryam Moshkelgosha, Fernando Reis, and to the supervisors, Isabel Proença, Raquel Bernardino, Maria João Guedes, Luís Costa
20000 citations in Google Scholar! scholar.google.com/citations?us...
March 25, 2025 at 6:08 PM
20000 citations in Google Scholar! scholar.google.com/citations?us...
RHEINMETALL AG stock price spiking (Deutsche Börse): war economy?!
March 16, 2025 at 10:03 AM
RHEINMETALL AG stock price spiking (Deutsche Börse): war economy?!
2025 ISEG Master in Monetary and Financial Economics iseg.ulisboa.pt/study/master... Yes, you can still enroll!
March 13, 2025 at 6:23 PM
2025 ISEG Master in Monetary and Financial Economics iseg.ulisboa.pt/study/master... Yes, you can still enroll!
"Does fiscal policy boost economic growth in the LDCs? The role of fiscal ratings and key fiscal variables", forthcoming (lnkd.in/d66ScYAN) A. Afonso, M. Blanco-Arana. Fiscal policy rating positively enhance economic growth in LDCs, and government effectiveness positively influences growth.
March 13, 2025 at 12:52 PM
"Does fiscal policy boost economic growth in the LDCs? The role of fiscal ratings and key fiscal variables", forthcoming (lnkd.in/d66ScYAN) A. Afonso, M. Blanco-Arana. Fiscal policy rating positively enhance economic growth in LDCs, and government effectiveness positively influences growth.
Testimonials of students/former students:
António Martins, Video: lnkd.in/df92-p_Q
Philemon Opoku, Video. lnkd.in/dbcUmCTY
Zoë Venter, Video: lnkd.in/d8g_t7hK
Joana Sousa Leite, Video: lnkd.in/dvAdS7iZ
Eduardo Sá Fortes, Video; lnkd.in/dsByD-_k
António Martins, Video: lnkd.in/df92-p_Q
Philemon Opoku, Video. lnkd.in/dbcUmCTY
Zoë Venter, Video: lnkd.in/d8g_t7hK
Joana Sousa Leite, Video: lnkd.in/dvAdS7iZ
Eduardo Sá Fortes, Video; lnkd.in/dsByD-_k
March 8, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Testimonials of students/former students:
António Martins, Video: lnkd.in/df92-p_Q
Philemon Opoku, Video. lnkd.in/dbcUmCTY
Zoë Venter, Video: lnkd.in/d8g_t7hK
Joana Sousa Leite, Video: lnkd.in/dvAdS7iZ
Eduardo Sá Fortes, Video; lnkd.in/dsByD-_k
António Martins, Video: lnkd.in/df92-p_Q
Philemon Opoku, Video. lnkd.in/dbcUmCTY
Zoë Venter, Video: lnkd.in/d8g_t7hK
Joana Sousa Leite, Video: lnkd.in/dvAdS7iZ
Eduardo Sá Fortes, Video; lnkd.in/dsByD-_k
REM WP 0371-2025 rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/. António Afonso, Catarina Miranda. "COMPLIANCE WITH FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE EURO". We find that euro membership has decreased the average responsiveness of primary balances to debt shocks as compared to the period before the euro.
March 7, 2025 at 12:17 PM
REM WP 0371-2025 rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/. António Afonso, Catarina Miranda. "COMPLIANCE WITH FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE EURO". We find that euro membership has decreased the average responsiveness of primary balances to debt shocks as compared to the period before the euro.
ISEG PhD in Economics, thesis defense "Essays on tax policies for developing economies", 05.03.2025. Congratulations Lucas Menescal. António Afonso, Joao Madeira, Manuel Mota Freitas Martins, José Alves.
March 5, 2025 at 1:43 PM
ISEG PhD in Economics, thesis defense "Essays on tax policies for developing economies", 05.03.2025. Congratulations Lucas Menescal. António Afonso, Joao Madeira, Manuel Mota Freitas Martins, José Alves.
ISEG PhD in Economics, thesis defense "Essays in Monetary and Fiscal Policies", 27.02.2025. Congratulations Francisco Gomes Pereira. António Afonso, Diana Bonfim, Piotr Stanek, José Alves.
February 27, 2025 at 5:23 PM
ISEG PhD in Economics, thesis defense "Essays in Monetary and Fiscal Policies", 27.02.2025. Congratulations Francisco Gomes Pereira. António Afonso, Diana Bonfim, Piotr Stanek, José Alves.
February 23, 2025 at 11:21 PM
ABS 4*, ABS 4 authors having lunch at ISEG, during the (not alarming) earthquake in Lisbon: 17.02.2024, 1:20pm. Research never stops! Luis Catao, António Afonso (@theiiiman.bsky.social), Pedro Gomes (@pedromaiagomespt.bsky.social)
February 17, 2025 at 3:48 PM
ABS 4*, ABS 4 authors having lunch at ISEG, during the (not alarming) earthquake in Lisbon: 17.02.2024, 1:20pm. Research never stops! Luis Catao, António Afonso (@theiiiman.bsky.social), Pedro Gomes (@pedromaiagomespt.bsky.social)
António Afonso, José Alves, José Coelho, Jamel Saadaoui. REM WP0369-2025. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/ "Peripheral countries have lower sustainability; non-Eurozone countries have higher sustainability; after the 2008 GFC, fiscal and external sustainability improved"
February 14, 2025 at 11:00 AM
António Afonso, José Alves, José Coelho, Jamel Saadaoui. REM WP0369-2025. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/ "Peripheral countries have lower sustainability; non-Eurozone countries have higher sustainability; after the 2008 GFC, fiscal and external sustainability improved"