They've even bought their way in to the US, and some of them don't even try to hide it.

#5 Support from allies runs out, and Ukraine is forced to yield to Russia's maximalist demands. Especially if the AfD comes to power in Germany and similar forces in other EU countries. But this is unlikely due to the position of the eastern EU countries, which fear Russia.

#4 The Russian economy deteriorates, and Putin has to start negotiations. For the first time during the war, there is real concern in the Kremlin about the rapid worsening of the Russian military economy in recent months and negative forecasts for 2026.

#3 The war continues in 2026 despite attempts to stop it. One of the most likely scenarios, because Ukraine will not surrender, and Putin cannot exit the war without something that could be called a victory.

#2 The war expands to the eastern NATO countries. Any provocation, for example in the Baltic region, could escalate into a full-scale war.

#1 Trump increases pressure on Russia and imposes a fragile peace. Analysts believe this is unlikely in the near future, as for the Kremlin this war is "existential," and it will continue it at any cost. Negotiations cannot end the war, they can only pause it.

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Sorry, sketchy link.
Alternate:
open.spotify.com/episode/2J9H...