The Devil's DNA
@thedevilsdna.bsky.social
👔: Football Tactical Analysis / Data Viz / Writer
🔍: Manchester United / EPL / Europe's top 5 leagues
🌐: www.thedevilsdna.com
🐦: @TheDevilsDNA
✉️: thedevilsdna@gmail.com
✍️: Analytics FC, Goalkeeper xG, UtdDistrict
🎙️: GetFootball Tactics Podcast
🔍: Manchester United / EPL / Europe's top 5 leagues
🌐: www.thedevilsdna.com
🐦: @TheDevilsDNA
✉️: thedevilsdna@gmail.com
✍️: Analytics FC, Goalkeeper xG, UtdDistrict
🎙️: GetFootball Tactics Podcast
Overall, I still stand by the idea that Hojlund can become an elite CF at his peak. His physical & technical profile enables him to be a good mover & efficient shooter. If he can scale up his shot numbers as United improve under Amorim, he can enjoy a great peak. That's the hope
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Overall, I still stand by the idea that Hojlund can become an elite CF at his peak. His physical & technical profile enables him to be a good mover & efficient shooter. If he can scale up his shot numbers as United improve under Amorim, he can enjoy a great peak. That's the hope
3) Coaching: Hojlund's ability to generate shots can improve. Some potentia areas:
- Right foot usage
- Shots from non comfort zone positions (RHS, distance)
- Use of (his good) carrying to create separation for shot
- Aerial threat (Hojlund's run-and-jump timing can be better)
- Right foot usage
- Shots from non comfort zone positions (RHS, distance)
- Use of (his good) carrying to create separation for shot
- Aerial threat (Hojlund's run-and-jump timing can be better)
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
3) Coaching: Hojlund's ability to generate shots can improve. Some potentia areas:
- Right foot usage
- Shots from non comfort zone positions (RHS, distance)
- Use of (his good) carrying to create separation for shot
- Aerial threat (Hojlund's run-and-jump timing can be better)
- Right foot usage
- Shots from non comfort zone positions (RHS, distance)
- Use of (his good) carrying to create separation for shot
- Aerial threat (Hojlund's run-and-jump timing can be better)
With Rashford's (& maybe Zirkzee's) future in doubt, it would be wise to recruit an off-ball threat SS type profile who can play both AM & CF. Would help Hojlund when both are on pitch & rotate at CF to reduce goal burden. Would compliment Bruno, Amad, Mount & Garnacho too.
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
With Rashford's (& maybe Zirkzee's) future in doubt, it would be wise to recruit an off-ball threat SS type profile who can play both AM & CF. Would help Hojlund when both are on pitch & rotate at CF to reduce goal burden. Would compliment Bruno, Amad, Mount & Garnacho too.
Hojlund had this with Lookman, who profiles close to Rashford. Even as AM Lookman would make opposing channel & box runs to Hojlund so that one of them could be the foil to the other at a given time. Rashford was being played RAM before the exile & I think LF-RF split was idea.
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Hojlund had this with Lookman, who profiles close to Rashford. Even as AM Lookman would make opposing channel & box runs to Hojlund so that one of them could be the foil to the other at a given time. Rashford was being played RAM before the exile & I think LF-RF split was idea.
So, what are the solutions?
1) Team building: Amorim's ideal 3-4-3 has 1 AM who joins CF like a SS often forming a front 2 & splitting striker runs (like far post & near post). My hope was Rashford could split run-and-finish work with Hojlund, but his exile has hurt this plan.
1) Team building: Amorim's ideal 3-4-3 has 1 AM who joins CF like a SS often forming a front 2 & splitting striker runs (like far post & near post). My hope was Rashford could split run-and-finish work with Hojlund, but his exile has hurt this plan.
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
So, what are the solutions?
1) Team building: Amorim's ideal 3-4-3 has 1 AM who joins CF like a SS often forming a front 2 & splitting striker runs (like far post & near post). My hope was Rashford could split run-and-finish work with Hojlund, but his exile has hurt this plan.
1) Team building: Amorim's ideal 3-4-3 has 1 AM who joins CF like a SS often forming a front 2 & splitting striker runs (like far post & near post). My hope was Rashford could split run-and-finish work with Hojlund, but his exile has hurt this plan.
In a sense, he's gone further into his comfort zones instead of breaking out of them. The ideal development was for him to add variety in shooting & find more ways to generate shots. We rarely see awkward or odd-position or dirty shots from Hojlund - a trait good scorers have.
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
In a sense, he's gone further into his comfort zones instead of breaking out of them. The ideal development was for him to add variety in shooting & find more ways to generate shots. We rarely see awkward or odd-position or dirty shots from Hojlund - a trait good scorers have.
Left-side bias in shooting that @jakeent.bsky.social mentions was something I noticed at Atalanta too. And with shot opportunities reducing due to poor creation at Man Utd, both volume & bias issues have become worse - he takes much lesser shots & much more from preferred left-side.
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Left-side bias in shooting that @jakeent.bsky.social mentions was something I noticed at Atalanta too. And with shot opportunities reducing due to poor creation at Man Utd, both volume & bias issues have become worse - he takes much lesser shots & much more from preferred left-side.
In fact, it can be argued that shooting a lot with avg or slightly above avg conversion rates is probably better than shooting less with high conversion rate. You'd rather be an elite shot-generator than have elite efficiency. In the long run, CFs who shoot a lot score a lot.
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
In fact, it can be argued that shooting a lot with avg or slightly above avg conversion rates is probably better than shooting less with high conversion rate. You'd rather be an elite shot-generator than have elite efficiency. In the long run, CFs who shoot a lot score a lot.
Firstly, point on shooting less is valid. I hyped his shooting efficiency & goals/shot from Atalanta time. He was scoring a goal every 6 shots & only an in-form Osimhen fared better. But that came while shooting less. Trend of high conversion but low volume continues at Man Utd.
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Firstly, point on shooting less is valid. I hyped his shooting efficiency & goals/shot from Atalanta time. He was scoring a goal every 6 shots & only an in-form Osimhen fared better. But that came while shooting less. Trend of high conversion but low volume continues at Man Utd.
Hojlund's next steps to evolve - THREAD
Great piece below on Hojlund. Nuanced & insightful. Matches my thoughts from the article I did on him + threads on him since move to Man Utd. Have comments on issues raised & solutions to help him evolve & reach his potential.
Short 🧵
Great piece below on Hojlund. Nuanced & insightful. Matches my thoughts from the article I did on him + threads on him since move to Man Utd. Have comments on issues raised & solutions to help him evolve & reach his potential.
Short 🧵
January 7, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Hojlund's next steps to evolve - THREAD
Great piece below on Hojlund. Nuanced & insightful. Matches my thoughts from the article I did on him + threads on him since move to Man Utd. Have comments on issues raised & solutions to help him evolve & reach his potential.
Short 🧵
Great piece below on Hojlund. Nuanced & insightful. Matches my thoughts from the article I did on him + threads on him since move to Man Utd. Have comments on issues raised & solutions to help him evolve & reach his potential.
Short 🧵
Amad main reason but his vertical threat also creates space for opposite WB/AM to execute more carries into final 3rd. Notice we take shots closer to goal in winger scenario.
My suggestions:
- Always start Amad/Antony at RWB
- Try Garnacho at LWB (my Amorim article hot take)
My suggestions:
- Always start Amad/Antony at RWB
- Try Garnacho at LWB (my Amorim article hot take)
December 29, 2024 at 6:37 AM
Amad main reason but his vertical threat also creates space for opposite WB/AM to execute more carries into final 3rd. Notice we take shots closer to goal in winger scenario.
My suggestions:
- Always start Amad/Antony at RWB
- Try Garnacho at LWB (my Amorim article hot take)
My suggestions:
- Always start Amad/Antony at RWB
- Try Garnacho at LWB (my Amorim article hot take)
[Impact of winger at wingback, Amorim's first 7 Manchester United games, EPL 24/25]
When a winger plays WB, team has ~2x carries & 30% more progressive carries & carries into final 3rd. This leads to better shots within box, resulting in 9 goals compared to 0 when FBs play WBs.
When a winger plays WB, team has ~2x carries & 30% more progressive carries & carries into final 3rd. This leads to better shots within box, resulting in 9 goals compared to 0 when FBs play WBs.
December 29, 2024 at 6:37 AM
[Impact of winger at wingback, Amorim's first 7 Manchester United games, EPL 24/25]
When a winger plays WB, team has ~2x carries & 30% more progressive carries & carries into final 3rd. This leads to better shots within box, resulting in 9 goals compared to 0 when FBs play WBs.
When a winger plays WB, team has ~2x carries & 30% more progressive carries & carries into final 3rd. This leads to better shots within box, resulting in 9 goals compared to 0 when FBs play WBs.
My guess is: as we evolve as a team & become confident & clear - 1) Amorim will push for more central progression patterns 2) Playmaker CMs, build up CBs & vertically progressive WBs might be targeted in future.
That's all I had. This took some time, so RTs appreciated.
(End)
That's all I had. This took some time, so RTs appreciated.
(End)
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
My guess is: as we evolve as a team & become confident & clear - 1) Amorim will push for more central progression patterns 2) Playmaker CMs, build up CBs & vertically progressive WBs might be targeted in future.
That's all I had. This took some time, so RTs appreciated.
(End)
That's all I had. This took some time, so RTs appreciated.
(End)
- Another reason for Amorim - safety against turnovers, which was a big defensive issue under ETH. Under Amorim, we dont go long from deep & when we progress via wide areas, we don't concede easy central turnovers.
- Other issues - Dalot at LWB, Rashford exile, Case/Eriksen age
- Other issues - Dalot at LWB, Rashford exile, Case/Eriksen age
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
- Another reason for Amorim - safety against turnovers, which was a big defensive issue under ETH. Under Amorim, we dont go long from deep & when we progress via wide areas, we don't concede easy central turnovers.
- Other issues - Dalot at LWB, Rashford exile, Case/Eriksen age
- Other issues - Dalot at LWB, Rashford exile, Case/Eriksen age
- This has been a consistent gap. ETH bypassed midfield by going long & over the opponent into final 3rd. Amorim is bypassing midfield by circulating the ball safely within back 5 before progressing via wide combinations of LCB-LWB-LAM.
- 1 reason is limitation of pivot players
- 1 reason is limitation of pivot players
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
- This has been a consistent gap. ETH bypassed midfield by going long & over the opponent into final 3rd. Amorim is bypassing midfield by circulating the ball safely within back 5 before progressing via wide combinations of LCB-LWB-LAM.
- 1 reason is limitation of pivot players
- 1 reason is limitation of pivot players
Summary
- Putting it all together, the intent & limitations of progression so far become clear
- Most of the wide positions in the system show good progression. But all 4 central spots look lacking
- Team-wide intent seems to be to go out when deep & then enter box from wide
- Putting it all together, the intent & limitations of progression so far become clear
- Most of the wide positions in the system show good progression. But all 4 central spots look lacking
- Team-wide intent seems to be to go out when deep & then enter box from wide
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
Summary
- Putting it all together, the intent & limitations of progression so far become clear
- Most of the wide positions in the system show good progression. But all 4 central spots look lacking
- Team-wide intent seems to be to go out when deep & then enter box from wide
- Putting it all together, the intent & limitations of progression so far become clear
- Most of the wide positions in the system show good progression. But all 4 central spots look lacking
- Team-wide intent seems to be to go out when deep & then enter box from wide
CCB
- 0 prog carries so far! Only short safe carries
- Majority passing progression comes via Maguire
- Comparitively cautious role but this looks bad
CF
- Understandably tough to progress when advanced
- Majority actions are via Zirkzee dropping deep & carrying or passing
- 0 prog carries so far! Only short safe carries
- Majority passing progression comes via Maguire
- Comparitively cautious role but this looks bad
CF
- Understandably tough to progress when advanced
- Majority actions are via Zirkzee dropping deep & carrying or passing
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
CCB
- 0 prog carries so far! Only short safe carries
- Majority passing progression comes via Maguire
- Comparitively cautious role but this looks bad
CF
- Understandably tough to progress when advanced
- Majority actions are via Zirkzee dropping deep & carrying or passing
- 0 prog carries so far! Only short safe carries
- Majority passing progression comes via Maguire
- Comparitively cautious role but this looks bad
CF
- Understandably tough to progress when advanced
- Majority actions are via Zirkzee dropping deep & carrying or passing
Attacking Midfield
- Bruno & Amad playmaking power is clear
- Bruno on either side roams a lot & plays many balls into box
- Garnacho has many wide-to-in diagonal carries but not as threatening. Amad more vertical again
- Rashford pass-first mentality at RAM helped progression
- Bruno & Amad playmaking power is clear
- Bruno on either side roams a lot & plays many balls into box
- Garnacho has many wide-to-in diagonal carries but not as threatening. Amad more vertical again
- Rashford pass-first mentality at RAM helped progression
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
Attacking Midfield
- Bruno & Amad playmaking power is clear
- Bruno on either side roams a lot & plays many balls into box
- Garnacho has many wide-to-in diagonal carries but not as threatening. Amad more vertical again
- Rashford pass-first mentality at RAM helped progression
- Bruno & Amad playmaking power is clear
- Bruno on either side roams a lot & plays many balls into box
- Garnacho has many wide-to-in diagonal carries but not as threatening. Amad more vertical again
- Rashford pass-first mentality at RAM helped progression
Center Midfield
- Among the worst carrying power in the squad is in midfield
- Even for passing, not very promising. Most attribution comes from some Casemiro long balls.
- Ugarte clearly better carrier than passer, but not too progressive overall
- Big progression gap in pivot
- Among the worst carrying power in the squad is in midfield
- Even for passing, not very promising. Most attribution comes from some Casemiro long balls.
- Ugarte clearly better carrier than passer, but not too progressive overall
- Big progression gap in pivot
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
Center Midfield
- Among the worst carrying power in the squad is in midfield
- Even for passing, not very promising. Most attribution comes from some Casemiro long balls.
- Ugarte clearly better carrier than passer, but not too progressive overall
- Big progression gap in pivot
- Among the worst carrying power in the squad is in midfield
- Even for passing, not very promising. Most attribution comes from some Casemiro long balls.
- Ugarte clearly better carrier than passer, but not too progressive overall
- Big progression gap in pivot
Wingbacks
- Most carrying power in team comes at RWB, mainly thanks to Amad. Notice vertical carries.
- Dalot from LWB has only been able to use his passing, mainly short diagonals into box
- Only few high threat passes into box on either side. More will be expected from WBs
- Most carrying power in team comes at RWB, mainly thanks to Amad. Notice vertical carries.
- Dalot from LWB has only been able to use his passing, mainly short diagonals into box
- Only few high threat passes into box on either side. More will be expected from WBs
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
Wingbacks
- Most carrying power in team comes at RWB, mainly thanks to Amad. Notice vertical carries.
- Dalot from LWB has only been able to use his passing, mainly short diagonals into box
- Only few high threat passes into box on either side. More will be expected from WBs
- Most carrying power in team comes at RWB, mainly thanks to Amad. Notice vertical carries.
- Dalot from LWB has only been able to use his passing, mainly short diagonals into box
- Only few high threat passes into box on either side. More will be expected from WBs
Wide CBs
- Lisandro's high progression indicates what Amorim wants from this role. But comes most via passing
- Carrying power on both sides is sub-par
- Mazraoui & esp Yoro can be more progressive
- Note how carries & passes are out to wing when deep & then inward in final 3rd
- Lisandro's high progression indicates what Amorim wants from this role. But comes most via passing
- Carrying power on both sides is sub-par
- Mazraoui & esp Yoro can be more progressive
- Note how carries & passes are out to wing when deep & then inward in final 3rd
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
Wide CBs
- Lisandro's high progression indicates what Amorim wants from this role. But comes most via passing
- Carrying power on both sides is sub-par
- Mazraoui & esp Yoro can be more progressive
- Note how carries & passes are out to wing when deep & then inward in final 3rd
- Lisandro's high progression indicates what Amorim wants from this role. But comes most via passing
- Carrying power on both sides is sub-par
- Mazraoui & esp Yoro can be more progressive
- Note how carries & passes are out to wing when deep & then inward in final 3rd
Before we begin, take a look at some gametime insights on who's played where & how much. That sets the understanding for the following thread. My first step was to split position wise data after which I made the plots based on Progression action formulas.
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
Before we begin, take a look at some gametime insights on who's played where & how much. That sets the understanding for the following thread. My first step was to split position wise data after which I made the plots based on Progression action formulas.
[Manchester United Progression Patterns under Amorim - Data Viz Thread]
Where do Amorim's United progress from? Which players are contributing most/least? I divide each player's playing time by position in the 3-4-3, plot their prog passes & carries & derive insights.
Lets go!🧵
Where do Amorim's United progress from? Which players are contributing most/least? I divide each player's playing time by position in the 3-4-3, plot their prog passes & carries & derive insights.
Lets go!🧵
December 25, 2024 at 4:58 PM
[Manchester United Progression Patterns under Amorim - Data Viz Thread]
Where do Amorim's United progress from? Which players are contributing most/least? I divide each player's playing time by position in the 3-4-3, plot their prog passes & carries & derive insights.
Lets go!🧵
Where do Amorim's United progress from? Which players are contributing most/least? I divide each player's playing time by position in the 3-4-3, plot their prog passes & carries & derive insights.
Lets go!🧵
From @optaanalyst.optajoe.com's xG explainer piece. Important to remember.
December 24, 2024 at 7:21 AM
From @optaanalyst.optajoe.com's xG explainer piece. Important to remember.
Bournemouth had only ten shots. Their 3 goals are in the top 4 xG shots and two of them are designated big chances.
They had clearer chances and we didn't. We just had a higher total because of number of shots.
They had clearer chances and we didn't. We just had a higher total because of number of shots.
December 24, 2024 at 7:21 AM
Bournemouth had only ten shots. Their 3 goals are in the top 4 xG shots and two of them are designated big chances.
They had clearer chances and we didn't. We just had a higher total because of number of shots.
They had clearer chances and we didn't. We just had a higher total because of number of shots.