Mahesh Shantaram
@thecontrarian.in
🇮🇳📸 MFA Photography (2024) @UlsterUni | MATRIMANIA https://bbc.in/2E2Bxru
pic👆🏽jordan | visual artist living rent free in a v̶s̶c̶o̶d̶e̶ windsurf workspace
https://gravatar.com/thecont1
pic👆🏽jordan | visual artist living rent free in a v̶s̶c̶o̶d̶e̶ windsurf workspace
https://gravatar.com/thecont1
These inconsistencies and irregularities are worrying. A public institution fumbling with numbers instead of fostering trust. Transparency in ridership data isn’t merely a favour to the public—it’s a civic obligation.
So, @OfficialBMRCL… kehna kya chahte ho bhai?
So, @OfficialBMRCL… kehna kya chahte ho bhai?
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
These inconsistencies and irregularities are worrying. A public institution fumbling with numbers instead of fostering trust. Transparency in ridership data isn’t merely a favour to the public—it’s a civic obligation.
So, @OfficialBMRCL… kehna kya chahte ho bhai?
So, @OfficialBMRCL… kehna kya chahte ho bhai?
Mistakes happen. Upward revising the data to account for some 65,000 QR tickets, we get a more realistic ridership of 867,165.
415,499 Smart Cards
225,172 Tokens
214,194 QR
12,081 NCMC
219 Group Tokens
= 867,165
...a record beaten by two previous days!!
415,499 Smart Cards
225,172 Tokens
214,194 QR
12,081 NCMC
219 Group Tokens
= 867,165
...a record beaten by two previous days!!
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Mistakes happen. Upward revising the data to account for some 65,000 QR tickets, we get a more realistic ridership of 867,165.
415,499 Smart Cards
225,172 Tokens
214,194 QR
12,081 NCMC
219 Group Tokens
= 867,165
...a record beaten by two previous days!!
415,499 Smart Cards
225,172 Tokens
214,194 QR
12,081 NCMC
219 Group Tokens
= 867,165
...a record beaten by two previous days!!
I noticed a not-so-glaring error in the data.
1081 paper tickets – assume this is people returning from Diljit Dosanjh's concert at night – overwrites Namma Metro QR tickets.
See attached. This is open data so I invite you to help audit this dataset.
github.com/thecont1/na...
1081 paper tickets – assume this is people returning from Diljit Dosanjh's concert at night – overwrites Namma Metro QR tickets.
See attached. This is open data so I invite you to help audit this dataset.
github.com/thecont1/na...
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
I noticed a not-so-glaring error in the data.
1081 paper tickets – assume this is people returning from Diljit Dosanjh's concert at night – overwrites Namma Metro QR tickets.
See attached. This is open data so I invite you to help audit this dataset.
github.com/thecont1/na...
1081 paper tickets – assume this is people returning from Diljit Dosanjh's concert at night – overwrites Namma Metro QR tickets.
See attached. This is open data so I invite you to help audit this dataset.
github.com/thecont1/na...
Let's turn our attention to another record date in the pre-fare hike era: December 6, 2024.
In this case, BMRCL did publish official ridership data. And went on to contradict themselves. 920,562 or a more humble 770,287?
In this case, BMRCL did publish official ridership data. And went on to contradict themselves. 920,562 or a more humble 770,287?
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Let's turn our attention to another record date in the pre-fare hike era: December 6, 2024.
In this case, BMRCL did publish official ridership data. And went on to contradict themselves. 920,562 or a more humble 770,287?
In this case, BMRCL did publish official ridership data. And went on to contradict themselves. 920,562 or a more humble 770,287?
In the same report, we see a different counting method:
🟣 Purple Line (488,316)
🟢 Green Line (338,567)
🟰 826,883
Again, this raises doubts. Sum the payment methods and you get only
~716,309.
BMRCL needs to be clear on which laws of arithmetic they follow.
🟣 Purple Line (488,316)
🟢 Green Line (338,567)
🟰 826,883
Again, this raises doubts. Sum the payment methods and you get only
~716,309.
BMRCL needs to be clear on which laws of arithmetic they follow.
![[LEFT] Text-based graphic with the heading “Record-Breaking Ridership” in bold red and black. It reports that 4,88,316 passengers used the Purple Line (Whitefield to Challaghatta), while 3,38,567 passengers used the Green Line (Silk Institute to Nagasandra) on a specific Tuesday. These figures suggest exceptionally high line-wise ridership, implying a peak operational day for Bangalore’s Namma Metro. [RIGHT] Continuation of a record-day report. Text states that BMRCL generated revenue exceeding ₹2 crore on that Tuesday. Among passengers, 4.68 lakh used contactless smart cards, 1,94,367 used tokens (though the number appears likely mistyped), 12,778 used National Common Mobility Cards (NCMC), and 41,164 used QR tickets. The distribution underscores heavy reliance on smart cards and digital payments.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:peke2m5g2v6ocwvf7c3kfz4f/bafkreidtbv3uepdppmdgkuyz3xocfzyit2tfatfjjejrjho23dacm7ofeq@jpeg)
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
In the same report, we see a different counting method:
🟣 Purple Line (488,316)
🟢 Green Line (338,567)
🟰 826,883
Again, this raises doubts. Sum the payment methods and you get only
~716,309.
BMRCL needs to be clear on which laws of arithmetic they follow.
🟣 Purple Line (488,316)
🟢 Green Line (338,567)
🟰 826,883
Again, this raises doubts. Sum the payment methods and you get only
~716,309.
BMRCL needs to be clear on which laws of arithmetic they follow.
My scepticism is confirmed by a reported record-breaker from as recently as August 6, 2024 (thanking the rain gods this time).
Majestic, Namma Metro's busiest station, clocks "footfall" (=ticketing entries) of 36,220. Much more believable.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengal...
Majestic, Namma Metro's busiest station, clocks "footfall" (=ticketing entries) of 36,220. Much more believable.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengal...
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
My scepticism is confirmed by a reported record-breaker from as recently as August 6, 2024 (thanking the rain gods this time).
Majestic, Namma Metro's busiest station, clocks "footfall" (=ticketing entries) of 36,220. Much more believable.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengal...
Majestic, Namma Metro's busiest station, clocks "footfall" (=ticketing entries) of 36,220. Much more believable.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengal...
Let's dig deeper into those April 17 numbers.
We see a new method of arriving at total ridership. I'm assuming (because no confirmation) this is the sum of those who entered at
🟣 36 Purple Line stations
🟢 31 Green Line stations and
🚸 Majestic (which serves both lines).
We see a new method of arriving at total ridership. I'm assuming (because no confirmation) this is the sum of those who entered at
🟣 36 Purple Line stations
🟢 31 Green Line stations and
🚸 Majestic (which serves both lines).
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Let's dig deeper into those April 17 numbers.
We see a new method of arriving at total ridership. I'm assuming (because no confirmation) this is the sum of those who entered at
🟣 36 Purple Line stations
🟢 31 Green Line stations and
🚸 Majestic (which serves both lines).
We see a new method of arriving at total ridership. I'm assuming (because no confirmation) this is the sum of those who entered at
🟣 36 Purple Line stations
🟢 31 Green Line stations and
🚸 Majestic (which serves both lines).
In a post-Feb 9 fare hike era, it's going to take a long time before we hit 9 lakh/day.
One can imagine why, just days before the fare hike, BMRCL did not advertise these record numbers with the same enthusiasm.
One can imagine why, just days before the fare hike, BMRCL did not advertise these record numbers with the same enthusiasm.
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
In a post-Feb 9 fare hike era, it's going to take a long time before we hit 9 lakh/day.
One can imagine why, just days before the fare hike, BMRCL did not advertise these record numbers with the same enthusiasm.
One can imagine why, just days before the fare hike, BMRCL did not advertise these record numbers with the same enthusiasm.
Did Metro carry 908,153 passengers on an otherwise unremarkable Thursday?
Statistically speaking, there is less than 1% chance to attain these numbers – unless Taylor Swift performed at Rangoli Metro Art Centre and I didn't get the memo.
Details: github.com/thecont1/na...
Statistically speaking, there is less than 1% chance to attain these numbers – unless Taylor Swift performed at Rangoli Metro Art Centre and I didn't get the memo.
Details: github.com/thecont1/na...
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Did Metro carry 908,153 passengers on an otherwise unremarkable Thursday?
Statistically speaking, there is less than 1% chance to attain these numbers – unless Taylor Swift performed at Rangoli Metro Art Centre and I didn't get the memo.
Details: github.com/thecont1/na...
Statistically speaking, there is less than 1% chance to attain these numbers – unless Taylor Swift performed at Rangoli Metro Art Centre and I didn't get the memo.
Details: github.com/thecont1/na...
Fortunately, I have enough historical data to call BMRCL's bluff today.
Currently, here are the numbers that Metro pulls daily.
Currently, here are the numbers that Metro pulls daily.
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Fortunately, I have enough historical data to call BMRCL's bluff today.
Currently, here are the numbers that Metro pulls daily.
Currently, here are the numbers that Metro pulls daily.
About that record-breaking 908,153 figure, BMRCL expects us to take their word for it. Because what other choice do we have? They did not publish numbers for April 17.
In fact, BMRCL has lately become terribly sloppy with this commitment. Look at the gaps in the last 30 days...
In fact, BMRCL has lately become terribly sloppy with this commitment. Look at the gaps in the last 30 days...
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
About that record-breaking 908,153 figure, BMRCL expects us to take their word for it. Because what other choice do we have? They did not publish numbers for April 17.
In fact, BMRCL has lately become terribly sloppy with this commitment. Look at the gaps in the last 30 days...
In fact, BMRCL has lately become terribly sloppy with this commitment. Look at the gaps in the last 30 days...
How many users ride the metro on any given day? Metro publishes the previous day's ridership data... almost daily.
english.bmrc.co.in/ridership/
It's a simple calculation that counts all the payment methods used to enter the Namma Metro system. (Smart Cards + Tokens + NCMC...)
english.bmrc.co.in/ridership/
It's a simple calculation that counts all the payment methods used to enter the Namma Metro system. (Smart Cards + Tokens + NCMC...)
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
How many users ride the metro on any given day? Metro publishes the previous day's ridership data... almost daily.
english.bmrc.co.in/ridership/
It's a simple calculation that counts all the payment methods used to enter the Namma Metro system. (Smart Cards + Tokens + NCMC...)
english.bmrc.co.in/ridership/
It's a simple calculation that counts all the payment methods used to enter the Namma Metro system. (Smart Cards + Tokens + NCMC...)
How we love absolute values! The media-at-large were quick to pick it up and, uncritically, run with the story generally centred on the suggestion that metro users are back on the coaches after swallowing the bitter pill of the Feb 9 fare hike.
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
How we love absolute values! The media-at-large were quick to pick it up and, uncritically, run with the story generally centred on the suggestion that metro users are back on the coaches after swallowing the bitter pill of the Feb 9 fare hike.
[ Why is Metro's Math Not Mathing? 😵💫 ]
Last week, @OfficialBMRCL put out a celebratory tweet announcing "a milestone of record boarding" and the "highest-ever footfall". They thanked us, the public, for this moment.
I have doubts… I have such doubts 🧵
x.com/OfficialBMR...
Last week, @OfficialBMRCL put out a celebratory tweet announcing "a milestone of record boarding" and the "highest-ever footfall". They thanked us, the public, for this moment.
I have doubts… I have such doubts 🧵
x.com/OfficialBMR...
April 25, 2025 at 5:05 AM
[ Why is Metro's Math Not Mathing? 😵💫 ]
Last week, @OfficialBMRCL put out a celebratory tweet announcing "a milestone of record boarding" and the "highest-ever footfall". They thanked us, the public, for this moment.
I have doubts… I have such doubts 🧵
x.com/OfficialBMR...
Last week, @OfficialBMRCL put out a celebratory tweet announcing "a milestone of record boarding" and the "highest-ever footfall". They thanked us, the public, for this moment.
I have doubts… I have such doubts 🧵
x.com/OfficialBMR...
🚨 Was this a deliberate disruption to increase Smart Card adoption?
🚨 If so, was it a pre-meditated operation weeks in the planning?
🚨 Was the fare hike timing connected to this sudden migration venture?
🚨 Can BMRCL confirm there was no unethical practice on their part?
🚨 If so, was it a pre-meditated operation weeks in the planning?
🚨 Was the fare hike timing connected to this sudden migration venture?
🚨 Can BMRCL confirm there was no unethical practice on their part?
March 10, 2025 at 2:06 AM
🚨 Was this a deliberate disruption to increase Smart Card adoption?
🚨 If so, was it a pre-meditated operation weeks in the planning?
🚨 Was the fare hike timing connected to this sudden migration venture?
🚨 Can BMRCL confirm there was no unethical practice on their part?
🚨 If so, was it a pre-meditated operation weeks in the planning?
🚨 Was the fare hike timing connected to this sudden migration venture?
🚨 Can BMRCL confirm there was no unethical practice on their part?
The stats speak for themselves–
That -10.7% drop in token usage happening alongside a +9.7% surge in Smart Card transactions is too sharp to be a coincidence.
And with a 99.9% confidence level, we’re not just speculating—this is as close to statistical certainty as it gets 💣
That -10.7% drop in token usage happening alongside a +9.7% surge in Smart Card transactions is too sharp to be a coincidence.
And with a 99.9% confidence level, we’re not just speculating—this is as close to statistical certainty as it gets 💣
March 10, 2025 at 2:06 AM
The stats speak for themselves–
That -10.7% drop in token usage happening alongside a +9.7% surge in Smart Card transactions is too sharp to be a coincidence.
And with a 99.9% confidence level, we’re not just speculating—this is as close to statistical certainty as it gets 💣
That -10.7% drop in token usage happening alongside a +9.7% surge in Smart Card transactions is too sharp to be a coincidence.
And with a 99.9% confidence level, we’re not just speculating—this is as close to statistical certainty as it gets 💣
🚩 Logically, when QR payments fail, users would likely buy tokens at the counter. Not Smart Cards with a ₹50 lock-in fee (₹90 after the hike).
🚩 If even half the +200K SC transactions on Jan 16 were new, that's quite a logistical feat by BMRCL!
🚩 If even half the +200K SC transactions on Jan 16 were new, that's quite a logistical feat by BMRCL!
March 10, 2025 at 2:06 AM
🚩 Logically, when QR payments fail, users would likely buy tokens at the counter. Not Smart Cards with a ₹50 lock-in fee (₹90 after the hike).
🚩 If even half the +200K SC transactions on Jan 16 were new, that's quite a logistical feat by BMRCL!
🚩 If even half the +200K SC transactions on Jan 16 were new, that's quite a logistical feat by BMRCL!
🚩 Despite the disruption in one payment system each day, total ridership did not decline significantly. This suggests one payment method effectively compensated for the other, allowing passengers to continue their journeys.
March 10, 2025 at 2:06 AM
🚩 Despite the disruption in one payment system each day, total ridership did not decline significantly. This suggests one payment method effectively compensated for the other, allowing passengers to continue their journeys.
3️⃣ On Thu Jan 16, the data shows *all* forms of ⚠️ QR payments (via WhatsApp, Paytm, and even Metro's own QR) collapsed to nearly zero.
This was accompanied by Smart Cards touching an unprecedented 650K – a 200K single-day spike like never seen before! 🚀
This was accompanied by Smart Cards touching an unprecedented 650K – a 200K single-day spike like never seen before! 🚀
March 10, 2025 at 2:05 AM
3️⃣ On Thu Jan 16, the data shows *all* forms of ⚠️ QR payments (via WhatsApp, Paytm, and even Metro's own QR) collapsed to nearly zero.
This was accompanied by Smart Cards touching an unprecedented 650K – a 200K single-day spike like never seen before! 🚀
This was accompanied by Smart Cards touching an unprecedented 650K – a 200K single-day spike like never seen before! 🚀
2️⃣ On Wed Jan 15, as people got back to work after an extended Sankranti holiday, something disrupted the ⚠️ Token system, causing a sharp drop to just 90K transactions – less than half the expected value.
Meanwhile, Smart Card transactions shot up to 550K 🚀
Meanwhile, Smart Card transactions shot up to 550K 🚀
March 10, 2025 at 2:05 AM
2️⃣ On Wed Jan 15, as people got back to work after an extended Sankranti holiday, something disrupted the ⚠️ Token system, causing a sharp drop to just 90K transactions – less than half the expected value.
Meanwhile, Smart Card transactions shot up to 550K 🚀
Meanwhile, Smart Card transactions shot up to 550K 🚀
🏆 The Bigger Picture: Migration vs. Abandonment
The statistical significance of these changes confirms they represent real shifts in user behaviour and not just normal variation. NCMC increased at the expense of Casual users.
Detailed analysis: github.com/thecont1/na...
The statistical significance of these changes confirms they represent real shifts in user behaviour and not just normal variation. NCMC increased at the expense of Casual users.
Detailed analysis: github.com/thecont1/na...
March 10, 2025 at 2:05 AM
🏆 The Bigger Picture: Migration vs. Abandonment
The statistical significance of these changes confirms they represent real shifts in user behaviour and not just normal variation. NCMC increased at the expense of Casual users.
Detailed analysis: github.com/thecont1/na...
The statistical significance of these changes confirms they represent real shifts in user behaviour and not just normal variation. NCMC increased at the expense of Casual users.
Detailed analysis: github.com/thecont1/na...
Was there an exodus from NammaMetro due to the fare hike? Actually...
💡 The statistics show a complex adaptation pattern where some users changed behaviour (adopted NCMC ⬆︎) while others reduced usage.
💡 The statistics show a complex adaptation pattern where some users changed behaviour (adopted NCMC ⬆︎) while others reduced usage.
March 10, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Was there an exodus from NammaMetro due to the fare hike? Actually...
💡 The statistics show a complex adaptation pattern where some users changed behaviour (adopted NCMC ⬆︎) while others reduced usage.
💡 The statistics show a complex adaptation pattern where some users changed behaviour (adopted NCMC ⬆︎) while others reduced usage.
However, the confounding effect of @AeroIndiashow was ignored.
- Estimated footfall over 1M+ from Feb 10 to 14 (five weekdays)
- Yelahanka airbase is outside #NammaMetro reach. Metro commuters skipped a day of work to visit ✈️ #AeroIndia
- Estimated footfall over 1M+ from Feb 10 to 14 (five weekdays)
- Yelahanka airbase is outside #NammaMetro reach. Metro commuters skipped a day of work to visit ✈️ #AeroIndia
March 10, 2025 at 2:05 AM
However, the confounding effect of @AeroIndiashow was ignored.
- Estimated footfall over 1M+ from Feb 10 to 14 (five weekdays)
- Yelahanka airbase is outside #NammaMetro reach. Metro commuters skipped a day of work to visit ✈️ #AeroIndia
- Estimated footfall over 1M+ from Feb 10 to 14 (five weekdays)
- Yelahanka airbase is outside #NammaMetro reach. Metro commuters skipped a day of work to visit ✈️ #AeroIndia
[ Impact of the Fare Hike 💸 ]
Following the Fare Fixation Committee’s recommendation, BMRCL hiked metro fares on Feb 9.
The dip in ridership was widely reported as a protest response—and statistically, the trend bears out 📉. Ridership fell 11.1% below the pre-hike average.
Following the Fare Fixation Committee’s recommendation, BMRCL hiked metro fares on Feb 9.
The dip in ridership was widely reported as a protest response—and statistically, the trend bears out 📉. Ridership fell 11.1% below the pre-hike average.
March 10, 2025 at 2:05 AM
[ Impact of the Fare Hike 💸 ]
Following the Fare Fixation Committee’s recommendation, BMRCL hiked metro fares on Feb 9.
The dip in ridership was widely reported as a protest response—and statistically, the trend bears out 📉. Ridership fell 11.1% below the pre-hike average.
Following the Fare Fixation Committee’s recommendation, BMRCL hiked metro fares on Feb 9.
The dip in ridership was widely reported as a protest response—and statistically, the trend bears out 📉. Ridership fell 11.1% below the pre-hike average.
However, we can see the effect on Mahashivaratri (Feb 26).
In an uneventful week, Commuters (Smart Cards + NCMC) and Casual Users (Tokens + QR) appear as complementary waves.
But religious holidays have the effect of a deep discount ⏬ on ridership numbers of both user types
In an uneventful week, Commuters (Smart Cards + NCMC) and Casual Users (Tokens + QR) appear as complementary waves.
But religious holidays have the effect of a deep discount ⏬ on ridership numbers of both user types
March 10, 2025 at 2:05 AM
However, we can see the effect on Mahashivaratri (Feb 26).
In an uneventful week, Commuters (Smart Cards + NCMC) and Casual Users (Tokens + QR) appear as complementary waves.
But religious holidays have the effect of a deep discount ⏬ on ridership numbers of both user types
In an uneventful week, Commuters (Smart Cards + NCMC) and Casual Users (Tokens + QR) appear as complementary waves.
But religious holidays have the effect of a deep discount ⏬ on ridership numbers of both user types