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@th271.bsky.social
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October 21, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Nice chart! Any chance to see a similar one for 10 year maturity?
September 6, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Congratulations! Already ordered and looking forward to reading it !
July 29, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Thank you, looking forward! Great timing 😅
April 11, 2025 at 4:47 PM
What's the name of the podcast good sir?
April 11, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Yes, but
April 9, 2025 at 5:06 AM
Interesting, whats the reason for the increase in services and primary income deficit vis a vis US in recent years?
April 5, 2025 at 6:37 PM
So by USTR *methodology* the *reciprocal tariff* on imports from Russia should be (2.5/3) = 0.833, divided by 2 = 0.416 or 41% which would put them near the top of the list at the same level as the Falkland Islands. But clearly the islands' exports of USD 27.4mn of frozen fish were more important
April 3, 2025 at 7:39 PM
FTAV is doing the lord's work these days
April 3, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Thank you! source says white house and on the white house website there is only annex 1 with the "big" countries. Is the remainder (Gabon, Tokelau etc) from the pictures posted by White House on X?
April 3, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Amazing. Where did you find the full list of countries?
April 3, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Where can I find this info graphic / table?
April 3, 2025 at 7:38 AM
On this page:

Let ε<0 represent the elasticity of imports with respect to import prices

The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4.

The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25.

This implies ε * φ = 1

Am I having a stroke
April 3, 2025 at 7:01 AM
Also, ɛ < 0 and ɛ = 4 is certainly... a way to put it
April 3, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Hahahhaha
April 3, 2025 at 6:39 AM
Ah yes there it is bsky.app/profile/alph...
April 3, 2025 at 6:06 AM
Has anyone checked if this "methodology" works for countries other than Indonesia? Here's some other suggestion for how they dreamt up the numbers using AI bsky.app/profile/amyh...
amyhoy.bsky.social Amy Hoy @amyhoy.bsky.social · Apr 3
guess where they got their weird trade deficit math from?

i went to the pit for y'all and brought back the screenshots with alt text
chatgpt log: What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%. Reasoned about trade tariffs and deficits for 10 seconds v A straightforward (if naïve) method is to set the tariff rate for each trading partner equal to the percentage share of the trade deficit relative to that country's total imports-always no less than 10%. In formula form: Tariff Rate (%) = max(10, (Trade Deficit ÷ Total Imports) * 100) For example, if the US runs a $20 billion deficit on $100 billion worth of imports from a country, the calculated rate is (20/100)×100 = 20%. If the deficit were only 5%, you'd still impose a 10% floor. This method ignores the intricate dynamics of international trade-such as elasticities, retaliatory measures, and supply chain nuances-but it provides a blunt, proportional rule to "level the playing field." One might implement it in Python like so: [code] Gemini answer: Okay, let's break down the idea of using tariffs to achieve an "even playing field" defined as eliminating the US trade deficit. While the goal of balancing trade is understandable, devising an "easy way" to calculate tariffs to achieve this is extremely complex, and most economists would argue it's not feasible or desirable for several reasons. However, let's outline a highly simplified conceptual approach based only on the numbers, ignoring the vast real-world complexities and consequences: Simplified (and Problematic) Calculation Idea: 1. Identify the Bilateral Deficit: Determine the trade deficit the US has with a specific country (Country X). Deficit_X = Value of Imports from X - Value of • Exports to X 2. Target Reduction: The goal is to reduce imports from Country X (or increase their cost to US buyers) by the amount of the deficit, so that the value effectively balances out. 3. Calculate Required Tariff (Ignoring Economics): • If you assume, very unrealistically, that a tariff directly reduces the value of imports by a corresponding percentage (which it doesn't - it increases the price), you could try: Required Reduction % = Deficit_X / Value of • Imports from X Claude: What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%. To calculate tariffs that could theoretically level the playing field for trade deficits, I'd suggest a straightforward approach based on the trade imbalance percentage: 1. Calculate the bilateral trade deficit with each trading partner: Trade Deficit - US Imports from Country - US Exports to Country 2. Express this as a percentage of total bilateral trade: Deficit Percentage - (Trade Deficit / Total Bilateral Trade) × 100 3. Apply a tariff rate that corresponds to this percentage, with your minimum 10% floor: Tariff Rate = max(Deficit Percentage, 10%) This creates a proportional response where countries with larger trade surpluses with the US would face higher tariffs. For example: • If Country A has a 25% trade surplus with the US (meaning the US has a 25% deficit), apply a 25% tariff • If Country B has a 5% trade surplus with the US, apply the minimum 10% tariff This method is relatively simple to calculate and directly ties tariff levels to trade imbalances. However, I should note that economists generally caution that trade deficits alone don't necessarily indicate unfair trade practices, and tariffs can have complex economic consequences including increased consumer prices and potential retaliation. Would you like me to elaborate on any part of this approach or discuss potential refinements to make it more sophisticated? Grok: the deficit. The deficit as a percentage of total trade is $295B/$582B = 50.69%. Using the formula Tariff% = 10% + (Deficit% × Scaling Factor), we choose a scaling factor of 50 for illustration: • Tariff = 10% + (50.69% × 50) = 10% + 25.345% = 35.345%, rounded to 35.3%. This means a 35.3% tariff on Chinese goods could be proposed to offset the imbalance, aiming to reduce imports and encourage domestic production or exports. Extending to Other Countries To provide a broader view, here's a table of top US trading partners with 2024 deficits, using data from The Motley Fool and similar calculations (assuming scaling factor of 50 for consistency): [data table headings] Country Deficit (USD Billion) Total Trade (USD Billion) Deficit % Calculate d Tariff % China -295 582 50.69% 35.3% Mexico -172 840 20.48% 20.2% Vietnam -123 (Data incomplet e, estimate) ~30% 25.0% Ireland -87 (Data incomplet e, estimate) ~25% 22.5% Germany -85 (Data incomplete estimate) ~20% 20.0%
April 3, 2025 at 4:31 AM
Surely you must be talking to Mr "thinking the unthinkable" @nktpnd.bsky.social who I believe has quasi trademarked this term
March 13, 2025 at 11:29 AM
"if I turned it off"

No European taxpayer money should flow to this man and his companies, least of all for vital security equipment
March 9, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Vielen Dank für diesen Artikel. Sind Ihrer Meinung nach die Berichte, dass Orban eine Polizeieinheit nach BiH geschickt haben soll, um Dodik im Fall einer Verhaftung zu evakuieren glaubwürdig?
szabolcspanyi.bsky.social Szabolcs Panyi @szabolcspanyi.bsky.social · Mar 6
💥🔥Bombshell: After a Budapest meeting between Viktor Orbán, Aleksandar Vučić, and Milorad Dodik, Orbán’s chief bodyguard was tasked to send special police forces to Banja Luka in case they needed to help Dodik escape arrest by a Bosnian court, @vsquare.bsky.social's investigation has found.
Orbán’s Covert Bosnia Operation: Special Forces Stood Ready to Extract Dodik - VSquare.org
After a Budapest meeting between Viktor Orbán, Aleksandar Vučić, and Milorad Dodik, Orbán’s chief bodyguard was tasked with deploying a large contingent of counter-terrorism police to Banja Luka in ca...
vsquare.org
March 8, 2025 at 4:31 AM
Credit where credit is due: bsky.app/profile/kati...
katie0martin.ft.com Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · Mar 6
They're really putting the FFS into tariffs is what they're doing
lesliepicker.bsky.social Leslie Picker @lesliepicker.bsky.social · Mar 6
They're really putting the "if" in tariff
March 7, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Putting the ffs in tariffs must be a key contender here
March 7, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Gibt es einen live stream?
March 7, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Hm. No easy solutions. Thanks for your insights
March 4, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Right. I'm also not sure entirely who this bank would lend to ultimately- assuming it's AAA rated, onlending to defence industry could provide cheaper funding to the industry vs recent past, but isn't the issue rather lack of govt long term orders rather than lack of Capex funding?
March 4, 2025 at 1:53 PM