Thibault Guinaldo
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tguinaldo.bsky.social
Thibault Guinaldo
@tguinaldo.bsky.social
Ocean/climate. Research scientist #CNRM @meteofrance working on observations from #satellites (marine heatwaves, ocean color). Cyclist enthusiastic from the Pyrénées, climate refugee in Brittany back in Toulouse
Merci pour cet article Nicolas!
October 21, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Dans une vue + large, le Pacifique reste a des niveaux très élevées ainsi que toute la zone Arctique et l’Atl.tropical.
Sans préjugés des conditions atmosphériques, cela reste un réservoir d’énergie/d’humidité conséquents et une souffrance pour tous les écosystèmes
October 15, 2025 at 5:09 PM
However, I agree with you, we do not know (yet?) why this event lasted so long and what the probability is over the total duration.
By the way, I’m not downplaying the role of aerosols (sulphur, dust, …), I'm just surprised at how this narrative has been imposed, hidding other main factors
September 21, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Thanks for your detailed and interesting/informative thread.
I’ll simply answer that we looked at this event compared to the 19th century and found this is a 1-in-10 year event or 1-in-100 event dependent on the region. This is a rare but plausible/excepted event at current global warming level
September 21, 2025 at 11:16 PM