Teo Lombardo
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teolombardo.bsky.social
Teo Lombardo
@teolombardo.bsky.social
Analyst on batteries and transport at the International Energy Agency.
Chemist, passionate by learning, interested in energy, politics, history, economy, physics, biology and a bunch of other cool stuff.
Opinions are my own.
60% of the global traded value pass by at least one of the 10 main chokepoints, with the Strait of Malacca alone accounting for over 30% of traded oil (in value-terms) over half for clean energy technologies, and roughly 20% of critical minerals.
November 19, 2024 at 6:55 PM
4) 🚢🚢🚢 But international trade could not be possible without its backbone: shipping.
November 19, 2024 at 6:55 PM
... net imports of clean energy technologies, one-third of which come from China, reach $140 billion in 2035, which is offset by the gains from lowering the fossil fuel import bill.
November 19, 2024 at 6:55 PM
International trade will also support this growth, with the value of traded clean tech set to triple to $575 billion by 2035, over 50% higher than the value of natural gas trade today.
November 19, 2024 at 6:55 PM
2) 💲💲💲 The market value of clean technologies is expected to soar rapidly, from $0.7 trillion in 2023 to $2.1 trillion in 2035 under current policy settings, close to the value of today's crude oil market.
November 19, 2024 at 6:55 PM
But industrial and trade policies also play a big role. For example, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) makes battery (cell) production costs in the US about 10% lower compared to China, down from about 40% higher without the IRA.
November 19, 2024 at 6:55 PM
1) 🏭🏭🏭 Fundamentals matter. Production cost, access to skilled workforce and integrated supply chains are major determinants of where technologies are produced.
November 19, 2024 at 6:55 PM