tavirafox.bsky.social
@tavirafox.bsky.social
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#AVAP.L new note from CG today, all you need to read from it
September 10, 2025 at 7:38 AM
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#AVAP.L just announced the completion of the sale of B777 at a material profit and generated material cash as a result. No figures given which is frustrating but we will find out by FY results. More cash to buy back bonds (and maybe some more shares from Rangeley and Co who are the clear sellers).
September 9, 2025 at 9:47 AM
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#AVAP.L unsecured debt outstanding now at $298m, finance costs already significantly lower versus last year. Nice statement out today highlighting the total value of debt repayments over the last 5 years probably setting the mood for bond refi, also highlighting the improved credit rating.
September 8, 2025 at 6:16 AM
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More evidence of the increasing popularity of the turboprops specifically ATR 72-600.

www.aviation24.be/airlines/bra...
Braathens Airline to phase out Airbus fleet, focus on ATR72-600 for ACMI growth
Braathens Airline has announced a strategic shift in its fleet plan, deciding to gradually retire its Airbus aircraft by 2027 and focus exclusively on the
www.aviation24.be
August 28, 2025 at 6:24 AM
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#AVAP.L

Again not sure how accurate this is but if true would seem to suggest the B777 deal has completed. Big movement from $303m a few hours earlier. We will probably find out next week.
August 8, 2025 at 3:01 PM
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Bofa High Yield Index under 7% (6.93%) for the first time in a while. #AVAP.L should be targeting c6.75% on a $250m ticker assuming they will use B777 proceeds to buyback debt and refinance unencumbered aircraft (ticker cld even be lower than $250m). Overall a 200bps reduction in cost of debt likely
#AVAP.L this is from Canaccord's recent note. I reckon Avation is on track to achieve a 150bps to 200bps reduction.

This is such a unique case of buying £1 chips for 50p with significant upward pressure on NAV. Takeover by y/e?
June 25, 2025 at 5:21 PM
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so #AVAP.L are basically saying that true NAV is anywhere between 380p-390p per share before re-financing. Share price 148p.
#AVAP.L There you go , AVAP saying that they believe the market value of their fleet (excl B777) is higher by c$82m vs book value. That is 91p per share in additional NAV not accounted for. Jeez! A seller providing the best opportunity out there.
June 12, 2025 at 8:47 AM
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#AVAP.L Those unsecured bonds are almost certain to be refinanced by end of this year probably at a $250m ticker. Avation will save big on finance costa going forward. Paris airshow next week with ATR booming. All stacking up nicely. Expect TP upgrades.
#AVAP.L It was coming wasn't it. Avation sells its B777-300ER for a material profit above book value. Transaction to release $33m in cash after payment of debt. Lets go!
June 11, 2025 at 12:19 PM
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India's new regional airline adds 2 more ATRs and has plans to add 30 ATRs in the next 5 years. Regional travel picking up in many parts of the world

I am quite optimistic about #AVAP.L's ATR fleet, order book and purchase options.

www.gomantaktimes.com/news/goa/goa...
Goa's FLY91 gets more wings, adds 2 ATR aircraft to its fleet
It’s been a year since FLY91 began commercial operations from Goa, with its maiden flight taking off from Goa, and the island of Lakshadweep as its destination.
www.gomantaktimes.com
April 26, 2025 at 9:03 AM
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#AVAP.L more positive news for ATR. Deliveries for these new order expected in September next year.

Difficult to stay calm in turbulent markets but important to look at the overall picture. Will we see increase in regional trade and cooperation in RoW?

www.flightglobal.com/airframers/c...
Canada’s Hydro-Quebec orders three ATR turboprops
Canadian hydroelectric provider Hydro-Quebec has ordered three ATR 72-600 turboprops, with deliveries set to start in September next year.
www.flightglobal.com
April 5, 2025 at 3:12 AM
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#AVAP.L US bond yields down significantly over the last week. Who knows what they will be at by year end. But this could prove to be significant when AVAP goes to refinance its bonds. I think AVAP will be a net winner post Tariffs. DYOR
April 4, 2025 at 7:44 AM
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#AVAP.L This is not even the main event. The main event will be later this year when the remaining bonds are re-financed. Lower finance costs and improving market values of aircraft + improving value of ATR options when already at a >50% discount to NAV is a setup I absolutely love.
#AVAP.L better than what I was hoping for.

"The facility's interest coupon is substantially lower than the market for unsecured bond financing. Once fully drawn, this facility has the potential to improve the Company's cash flow by up to US$400,000 per month."
February 14, 2025 at 8:03 AM
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#AVAP.L market cap at 140p is $116m which is almost equal to the value of the ATR purchase rights as at 30th June 2024 and then you have a fleet of 32 aircraft which is worth c170p/share using June 2024 figures. Bond refinance will create further value late this year/early next year.
February 11, 2025 at 12:09 PM
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#AVAP.L They have posted a new corporate presentation. This chart stands out. Note that Avation's B777-300ER is only 7 years old and will generate c$36m in lease payments until it becomes 10 years old. 40% increase YoY not yet reflected in NAV.
February 1, 2025 at 12:40 PM
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#AVAP.L

"It's just a bigger industry. It's more commoditized ... I think consolidation is inevitable," said Peter Barrett, CEO of Top 3 lessor SMBC Aviation Capital.

www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Global air financiers see jet shortages dragging on as values soar
The world's largest aircraft lessors forecast on Monday that manufacturing delays would drag on until the end of the decade at least, keeping prices high and limiting the entry of new players into an industry that controls half of the world's jets.
www.reuters.com
January 15, 2025 at 1:23 PM
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#AVAP.L Total volume so far today 142k, of which 92% were ATs. Just a large buyer and seller playing games. 2 broker notes days before the AGM. 36% of all shares traded in the last 2 months. AGM next Thursday. A very interesting week ahead.
December 13, 2024 at 2:05 PM
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#AVAP.L sudden surge in volume 5o 477k already. Enjoying watching the book atm. A buyer vs a seller.
#AVAP.L sudden spike up. Interesting
November 19, 2024 at 12:01 PM