In retrospect, insanity

This challenges the idea that opposition movements should boycott rigged elections.

Sometimes, governing, even in a limited capacity, can make a real difference.

9/

These governance changes had real political consequences, if only Putin hadn’t invaded Ukraine.

Using a survey experiment I show that Russian voters prefer opposition candidates with elected experience over ruling party candidates without it.

7/

Using a difference-in-differences design, I find that opposition control reduced the income earned in office by deputies from Putin’s political party United Russia

Why?

Because opposition councils cracked down on opportunities to abuse office for corruption and rent-seeking.

5/

This created a unique experiment for studying governance under an autocratic regime

We can compare municipal outcomes, such as corruption, in places held by Putin’s opposition versus those held by his ruling party

I collected thousands of income disclosures as well as budget and spending data

4/

In 2017, a new “Political Uber” strategy helped opposition candidates surprise the regime and take control of a quarter of municipal councils in Moscow.

They even swept all the seats in Putin’s "home" district.

Check out @ygorokho.bsky.social 's amazing work for how they did it.

3/

Most dictatorships allow some form of opposition to contest power.

What happens when the opposition actually wins elections, say at lower levels?

We often assume limited power means little change.

2/

Crypto exchanges: ‘We’re about freedom and disruption!’

Also crypto exchanges: ‘Please don’t sue us, President Trump. We'll list your meme coin.’

using ChatGPT to clean some recent Russian election data and very relieved to see that it does not recognize the illegally occupied territories as Russian