🧵 1/ Yesterday, a meeting was held between representatives of armed factions in #Daraa and Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS. Previous tensions were reportedly diffused, with an agreement reached to integrate local factions into the military institution.

2/ Meetings indicate agreement on broad principles, such as integration into a military institution. However, many leaders perceive HTS’s approach as a coercive effort to impose its institutional model & cadres, disregarding or failing to co-opt pre-existing structures.

🧵 Challenges to #HTS approach in southern #Syria:

1/ Meetings between Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS and many leaders of armed factions in #Daraa Governorate seem to reveal a broad yet fragile consensus that conceals underlying tensions.

Map shows locations of #Israeli airstrikes in #Daraa and #Quneitra, which targeted military sites and weapons stockpiles.

Israeli forces reportedly conducted an incursion in Quneitra & crossed the disengagement line into the Yarmouk Basin in southwestern Daraa

Thus far, Israel has conducted at lest 10 airstrikes in Daraa and Quneitra provinces, targeting military sites and warehouses.

Israel carried out incursions into Quneitra Province in southern Syria. For Israel, the collapse of the Syrian army & its withdrawal from positions near the border means the breakdown of the 1974 agreement.

Israel is expected to seize the buffer zone & strike weapons warehouses in the region.

A graph illustrating the gains of local armed factions in #Daraa province in southern Syria so far, including their seizure of checkpoints, security apparatus headquarters, military bases, and police stations, with circle size denoting the intensity and number of attacks (ranging from 1 to 5).

A follow-up video shows rebels from al-Qalamoun preparing to join ongoing battles against regime forces in Hama.

A circulating video features a group of rebels declaring the reactivation of insurgent operations in al-Qalamoun in Rural Damascus, following coordination with rebel groups in northern Syria.

A detailed visualization of protests and clashes across Daraa province in southern Syria since November 29. At least 11 security personnel have been reportedly killed.

Protest in al-Hrak town in eastern Daraa province in support of military operations in north-western Syria, coinciding with flare shells fired by the 52nd Brigade of the Syrian army.

Members of the state security apparatus Inkhil city in Daraa province in southern Syria opened fire on protestors who had taken to the streets in support of military operations in north-western Syria.

Localized military escalations, rivalries among armed groups, vigilante operations, tribal clashes, and criminal activities are main drivers of violence in postwar southern Syria.

My latest for Fredrich-Ebert-Stiftung

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