Switchbox
@switch.box
A new think tank producing rigorous, accessible data on state climate policy for advocates, policymakers, & the public. www.switch.box
The data is clear: if the DPU stopped overcharging heat pumps, they’d be more than able to compete with natural gas. In fact, they’d turn into a potent vehicle for energy affordability in MA, and in other cold states.
August 15, 2025 at 6:34 PM
The data is clear: if the DPU stopped overcharging heat pumps, they’d be more than able to compete with natural gas. In fact, they’d turn into a potent vehicle for energy affordability in MA, and in other cold states.
Think of it this way: Under 2.0 rates, heat pump customers would pay fewer cents per kWh for delivery, but they’d consume more kWh overall, so the total delivery payment would be approximately the same on average.
August 15, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Think of it this way: Under 2.0 rates, heat pump customers would pay fewer cents per kWh for delivery, but they’d consume more kWh overall, so the total delivery payment would be approximately the same on average.
Here’s a crucial point: this wouldn’t cost the state, or other ratepayers, anything. The 2.0 rates are specifically designed so that the electric utilities would collect the same amount in poles-and-wires payments before and after homes electrify, on average.
August 15, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Here’s a crucial point: this wouldn’t cost the state, or other ratepayers, anything. The 2.0 rates are specifically designed so that the electric utilities would collect the same amount in poles-and-wires payments before and after homes electrify, on average.
How much would homes save?
• Homes switching from natural gas would save a median of $361, per winter
• Those currently on heating oil would save a median of $1,071
• Homes with electric resistance heating would save a whopping $1,755
And no added costs for other ratepayers.
• Homes switching from natural gas would save a median of $361, per winter
• Those currently on heating oil would save a median of $1,071
• Homes with electric resistance heating would save a whopping $1,755
And no added costs for other ratepayers.
August 15, 2025 at 6:33 PM
How much would homes save?
• Homes switching from natural gas would save a median of $361, per winter
• Those currently on heating oil would save a median of $1,071
• Homes with electric resistance heating would save a whopping $1,755
And no added costs for other ratepayers.
• Homes switching from natural gas would save a median of $361, per winter
• Those currently on heating oil would save a median of $1,071
• Homes with electric resistance heating would save a whopping $1,755
And no added costs for other ratepayers.
But would it make homes’ winter energy bills lower than before they installed heat pumps? For the large majority of homes in Massachusetts, yes: 82% would see savings from switching to a heat pump, up from 45% today.
August 15, 2025 at 6:31 PM
But would it make homes’ winter energy bills lower than before they installed heat pumps? For the large majority of homes in Massachusetts, yes: 82% would see savings from switching to a heat pump, up from 45% today.
Our report models new rates (“2.0 rates”) proposed by MA’s own Department of Energy Resources (DOER)that would correct the overcharge. For the average household with heat pumps, the 2.0 rates would cut electricity bills by 23%.
August 15, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Our report models new rates (“2.0 rates”) proposed by MA’s own Department of Energy Resources (DOER)that would correct the overcharge. For the average household with heat pumps, the 2.0 rates would cut electricity bills by 23%.
Massachusetts has started rolling out new rates that offer lower delivery rates during winter for heat pump homes (“1.0” rates). It’s a step in the right direction—but not enough to fully correct the overcharge, or close the operating cost gap. 4/
August 15, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Massachusetts has started rolling out new rates that offer lower delivery rates during winter for heat pump homes (“1.0” rates). It’s a step in the right direction—but not enough to fully correct the overcharge, or close the operating cost gap. 4/
Today, utilities are paying back loans for the grid they’ve already built to serve the summer peak. Because these costs are fixed, increased revenue from electrifying households allows utilities to reduce rates, which lowers electric bills for non-heat pump customers.
August 15, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Today, utilities are paying back loans for the grid they’ve already built to serve the summer peak. Because these costs are fixed, increased revenue from electrifying households allows utilities to reduce rates, which lowers electric bills for non-heat pump customers.
In fact, only around 80% of the New England grid’s capacity is currently used during the winter. When a cold-climate heat pump is installed today, its heating load simply taps into this spare wintertime capacity.
August 15, 2025 at 6:27 PM
In fact, only around 80% of the New England grid’s capacity is currently used during the winter. When a cold-climate heat pump is installed today, its heating load simply taps into this spare wintertime capacity.
But today, and for the next decade, heat pump installations are not triggering widespread grid upgrades, because MA grid is already designed to serve heat pumps: the millions of one-way heat pumps—also known as air-conditioners—that 87% of MA homes use to keep cool during the summer.
August 15, 2025 at 6:27 PM
But today, and for the next decade, heat pump installations are not triggering widespread grid upgrades, because MA grid is already designed to serve heat pumps: the millions of one-way heat pumps—also known as air-conditioners—that 87% of MA homes use to keep cool during the summer.
This makes sense if the household’s new winter-time electricity use creates a need for an upgrade to those poles and wires. In that case, the household would need to pay for these new costs to avoid imposing them on other customers.
August 15, 2025 at 6:27 PM
This makes sense if the household’s new winter-time electricity use creates a need for an upgrade to those poles and wires. In that case, the household would need to pay for these new costs to avoid imposing them on other customers.
This isn’t because “gas is cheap.” It’s because heat pumps are being overcharged for the grid. When homes electrify, they consume roughly 2x as much electricity. Under today’s largely volumetric rates, that means they pay 2x for the electrons, and 2x for the poles and wires that deliver them.
August 15, 2025 at 6:26 PM
This isn’t because “gas is cheap.” It’s because heat pumps are being overcharged for the grid. When homes electrify, they consume roughly 2x as much electricity. Under today’s largely volumetric rates, that means they pay 2x for the electrons, and 2x for the poles and wires that deliver them.
Here’s the problem: under current electric rates, switching to a heat pump *increases* winter heating bills for over half of MA homes. That’s a major barrier to clean energy adoption. 2/
August 15, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Here’s the problem: under current electric rates, switching to a heat pump *increases* winter heating bills for over half of MA homes. That’s a major barrier to clean energy adoption. 2/
But of course :) www.switch.box/mahprates
Report: MA Heat Pump Rates
www.switch.box
July 22, 2025 at 7:17 PM
But of course :) www.switch.box/mahprates
Probably nothing could have stopped the blackout once the 2 big plants went offline @ 12:33:16.5 (an "N-2" event). But the grid _did_ manage the initial generation loss ("N-1") at 12:32:57.3.
May 9, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Probably nothing could have stopped the blackout once the 2 big plants went offline @ 12:33:16.5 (an "N-2" event). But the grid _did_ manage the initial generation loss ("N-1") at 12:32:57.3.
Absolutely possible with just GFM inverters: some island grids (eg Kauai) operate 90+% inverter-based resources (IBR) for most of the year, but rotational mass helps. The best is GFM + batteries: GFM mimics rotating inertia for the first few seconds as batteries ramp up to handle any imbalances.
Getting the Grid to Net Zero
An emerging technology, grid-forming inverters, are letting utilities install more renewable energy facilities, such as solar photovoltaics and wind turbines. The inverters are often connected to util...
spectrum.ieee.org
May 9, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Absolutely possible with just GFM inverters: some island grids (eg Kauai) operate 90+% inverter-based resources (IBR) for most of the year, but rotational mass helps. The best is GFM + batteries: GFM mimics rotating inertia for the first few seconds as batteries ramp up to handle any imbalances.
Credit to Rick Wallace Kenyon et al at #NREL for the graphic! They very literally wrote the roadmap for grid forming inverter research (link ⤵️)
www2.nrel.gov/news/detail/...
www2.nrel.gov/news/detail/...
Technical Roadmap Guides Research Direction for Grid-Forming Inverters | NREL
www2.nrel.gov
May 9, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Credit to Rick Wallace Kenyon et al at #NREL for the graphic! They very literally wrote the roadmap for grid forming inverter research (link ⤵️)
www2.nrel.gov/news/detail/...
www2.nrel.gov/news/detail/...
May 9, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Switchbox’s general stance: open data → curiosity → dialogue → insight. For the #apagon of April 28, we’re still in the open data phase (curiosity is kind of always on). Ask us questions if you’re curious about technical details! (9/9)
May 9, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Switchbox’s general stance: open data → curiosity → dialogue → insight. For the #apagon of April 28, we’re still in the open data phase (curiosity is kind of always on). Ask us questions if you’re curious about technical details! (9/9)
So the blackout of April 28, unfortunate though it was, will be a training set for how solar, wind, and battery plants can and should (_and shouldn’t_) operate. But the lessons will come from researchers and engineers and modelers, and they need data. (8/9)
May 9, 2025 at 12:04 AM
So the blackout of April 28, unfortunate though it was, will be a training set for how solar, wind, and battery plants can and should (_and shouldn’t_) operate. But the lessons will come from researchers and engineers and modelers, and they need data. (8/9)
So it’s not a hardware problem, its a software problem (solar and wind generally vs the controllers that feed their generation into the grid). Good news…software is cheap! And to develop good software, we need lots of training data. And standards! More for nerds 👇 (7/9)
www.energy.gov
May 9, 2025 at 12:04 AM
So it’s not a hardware problem, its a software problem (solar and wind generally vs the controllers that feed their generation into the grid). Good news…software is cheap! And to develop good software, we need lots of training data. And standards! More for nerds 👇 (7/9)