Stu Donovan
@studonovan.bsky.social
Economist researching cities, transport, housing, & energy. I focus on New Zealand & Australia, with European dalliances. And some chaff.
⭐ New Zealand polling update⭐
As we wait on new polling data following the recent budget here in New Zealand, I thought I'd crank the handle on my model that aggregates political polling data and infers the "average" levels of support for individual parties.
As we wait on new polling data following the recent budget here in New Zealand, I thought I'd crank the handle on my model that aggregates political polling data and infers the "average" levels of support for individual parties.
May 28, 2025 at 5:58 AM
⭐ New Zealand polling update⭐
As we wait on new polling data following the recent budget here in New Zealand, I thought I'd crank the handle on my model that aggregates political polling data and infers the "average" levels of support for individual parties.
As we wait on new polling data following the recent budget here in New Zealand, I thought I'd crank the handle on my model that aggregates political polling data and infers the "average" levels of support for individual parties.
The post finishes by observing how improving infrastructure in New Zealand's remote / rural communities can also deliver tangible value to urban areas, by providing access to obscenely beautiful natural environments. Like Wharariki Beach.
May 12, 2025 at 10:13 PM
The post finishes by observing how improving infrastructure in New Zealand's remote / rural communities can also deliver tangible value to urban areas, by providing access to obscenely beautiful natural environments. Like Wharariki Beach.
Infrastructure "cross-subsidies" from urban to rural areas are already happening, of course, and have happened for eons. For me, the focus should be on ensuring New Zealand has a sufficiently large and prosperous urban core to sustain these cross-subsidies into the future.
May 12, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Infrastructure "cross-subsidies" from urban to rural areas are already happening, of course, and have happened for eons. For me, the focus should be on ensuring New Zealand has a sufficiently large and prosperous urban core to sustain these cross-subsidies into the future.
The post discusses how adopting policies to strengthen the urban core, such as upzoning to enable housing, can support remote, rural communities.
How? Well, it spreads the fixed costs of providing infrastructure over more people, reducing costs per person. E.g. the road to Rangiwhakaoma.
How? Well, it spreads the fixed costs of providing infrastructure over more people, reducing costs per person. E.g. the road to Rangiwhakaoma.
May 12, 2025 at 10:13 PM
The post discusses how adopting policies to strengthen the urban core, such as upzoning to enable housing, can support remote, rural communities.
How? Well, it spreads the fixed costs of providing infrastructure over more people, reducing costs per person. E.g. the road to Rangiwhakaoma.
How? Well, it spreads the fixed costs of providing infrastructure over more people, reducing costs per person. E.g. the road to Rangiwhakaoma.
Main takeaways:
- the evidence suggests upzoning in Auckland led to more supply and lower rents
- these findings hold under plausible assumptions and are very robust to changes in those assumptions
- all available evidence indicates upzoning had large effects
The conclusions sum up where we stand.
- the evidence suggests upzoning in Auckland led to more supply and lower rents
- these findings hold under plausible assumptions and are very robust to changes in those assumptions
- all available evidence indicates upzoning had large effects
The conclusions sum up where we stand.
February 12, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Main takeaways:
- the evidence suggests upzoning in Auckland led to more supply and lower rents
- these findings hold under plausible assumptions and are very robust to changes in those assumptions
- all available evidence indicates upzoning had large effects
The conclusions sum up where we stand.
- the evidence suggests upzoning in Auckland led to more supply and lower rents
- these findings hold under plausible assumptions and are very robust to changes in those assumptions
- all available evidence indicates upzoning had large effects
The conclusions sum up where we stand.
🚨 urban economics research siren 🚨
In this recently published (open access) paper in "Land Use Policy", my co-author (Matthew Maltman) and I review critiques of the economic evidence on the effects of upzoning in Auckland.
We find these critiques have little to no merit.
doi.org/10.1016/j.la...
In this recently published (open access) paper in "Land Use Policy", my co-author (Matthew Maltman) and I review critiques of the economic evidence on the effects of upzoning in Auckland.
We find these critiques have little to no merit.
doi.org/10.1016/j.la...
February 12, 2025 at 8:27 PM
🚨 urban economics research siren 🚨
In this recently published (open access) paper in "Land Use Policy", my co-author (Matthew Maltman) and I review critiques of the economic evidence on the effects of upzoning in Auckland.
We find these critiques have little to no merit.
doi.org/10.1016/j.la...
In this recently published (open access) paper in "Land Use Policy", my co-author (Matthew Maltman) and I review critiques of the economic evidence on the effects of upzoning in Auckland.
We find these critiques have little to no merit.
doi.org/10.1016/j.la...
And just like in Auckland, the synthetic control method shows rents falling soon after the reforms with the size of the effect growing with time.
Honestly, this is beautiful.
Honestly, this is beautiful.
January 20, 2025 at 8:44 AM
And just like in Auckland, the synthetic control method shows rents falling soon after the reforms with the size of the effect growing with time.
Honestly, this is beautiful.
Honestly, this is beautiful.
Like Auckland, the paper presents data showing a big spike in housing permits especially for apartments and townhouses.
January 20, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Like Auckland, the paper presents data showing a big spike in housing permits especially for apartments and townhouses.
Kia ora from Island Bay, Wellington, New Zealand, where the clouds are doing something a little special.
January 2, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Kia ora from Island Bay, Wellington, New Zealand, where the clouds are doing something a little special.
Pleased to confirm that we have absolutely, positively arrived in Wellington, New Zealand. And it was "on a good day", as they say.
In a few weeks, I'll get busy trying to help make this place into a shining city on a hill. But for now, bring on the summer holidays.
In a few weeks, I'll get busy trying to help make this place into a shining city on a hill. But for now, bring on the summer holidays.
December 29, 2024 at 5:24 AM
Pleased to confirm that we have absolutely, positively arrived in Wellington, New Zealand. And it was "on a good day", as they say.
In a few weeks, I'll get busy trying to help make this place into a shining city on a hill. But for now, bring on the summer holidays.
In a few weeks, I'll get busy trying to help make this place into a shining city on a hill. But for now, bring on the summer holidays.
That paper reports a very strong bid-rent curve for Auckland that is consistent with a monocentric city model (cf Figure 2)
December 21, 2024 at 3:53 AM
That paper reports a very strong bid-rent curve for Auckland that is consistent with a monocentric city model (cf Figure 2)
🚨urban economics research siren🚨
This new paper analyses the effects of upzoning in Auckland by first specifying and second estimating an urban economic model.
The results imply upzoning led to:
- a 24% increase in floorspace; and
- a 15 to 27% fall in house prices.
Paper here: t.co/VhlUfIgsTD
This new paper analyses the effects of upzoning in Auckland by first specifying and second estimating an urban economic model.
The results imply upzoning led to:
- a 24% increase in floorspace; and
- a 15 to 27% fall in house prices.
Paper here: t.co/VhlUfIgsTD
December 20, 2024 at 8:38 PM
🚨urban economics research siren🚨
This new paper analyses the effects of upzoning in Auckland by first specifying and second estimating an urban economic model.
The results imply upzoning led to:
- a 24% increase in floorspace; and
- a 15 to 27% fall in house prices.
Paper here: t.co/VhlUfIgsTD
This new paper analyses the effects of upzoning in Auckland by first specifying and second estimating an urban economic model.
The results imply upzoning led to:
- a 24% increase in floorspace; and
- a 15 to 27% fall in house prices.
Paper here: t.co/VhlUfIgsTD
THE ABSOLUTE STATE OF THIS PLACE
December 7, 2024 at 2:52 AM
THE ABSOLUTE STATE OF THIS PLACE
If I'm to follow Nietzsche's advice and celebrate the maggots in the bread of life, then I want to do it while enjoying this sort of scenery at least some of the time.
December 7, 2024 at 2:52 AM
If I'm to follow Nietzsche's advice and celebrate the maggots in the bread of life, then I want to do it while enjoying this sort of scenery at least some of the time.
Find yourself a country that looks at you the way New Zealand does.
December 7, 2024 at 2:52 AM
Find yourself a country that looks at you the way New Zealand does.
I'm giving a keynote address, alongside the Minister, David Levinson, Geoff Cooper, and Stephanie Ward.
In my talk, I'll draw on urban economics research to highlight the myriad ways in which transport affects the location choices of people and firms ("land use"). Some obvious, some less so.
In my talk, I'll draw on urban economics research to highlight the myriad ways in which transport affects the location choices of people and firms ("land use"). Some obvious, some less so.
November 30, 2024 at 8:32 AM
I'm giving a keynote address, alongside the Minister, David Levinson, Geoff Cooper, and Stephanie Ward.
In my talk, I'll draw on urban economics research to highlight the myriad ways in which transport affects the location choices of people and firms ("land use"). Some obvious, some less so.
In my talk, I'll draw on urban economics research to highlight the myriad ways in which transport affects the location choices of people and firms ("land use"). Some obvious, some less so.
The theme for the Conference is "Transport’s role in economic and social prosperity". The conference program looks like a cracker -- check it out using this link:
www.transportknowledgeconference.co.nz/_files/ugd/6...
www.transportknowledgeconference.co.nz/_files/ugd/6...
November 30, 2024 at 8:32 AM
The theme for the Conference is "Transport’s role in economic and social prosperity". The conference program looks like a cracker -- check it out using this link:
www.transportknowledgeconference.co.nz/_files/ugd/6...
www.transportknowledgeconference.co.nz/_files/ugd/6...
An interesting junction has been reached: Interest rates in New Zealand are typically higher than Australia but, with today's cut, the positions have shifted.
And with the RBNZ predicting further cuts while the RBA holds, the interest rate gap between NZ and AU looks set to widen before it narrows.
And with the RBNZ predicting further cuts while the RBA holds, the interest rate gap between NZ and AU looks set to widen before it narrows.
November 27, 2024 at 7:37 AM
An interesting junction has been reached: Interest rates in New Zealand are typically higher than Australia but, with today's cut, the positions have shifted.
And with the RBNZ predicting further cuts while the RBA holds, the interest rate gap between NZ and AU looks set to widen before it narrows.
And with the RBNZ predicting further cuts while the RBA holds, the interest rate gap between NZ and AU looks set to widen before it narrows.
P.p.s. X also has higher variance in the quality of replies, such as this thing of beauty from "Prof Mark Barber OBE"
November 26, 2024 at 11:10 AM
P.p.s. X also has higher variance in the quality of replies, such as this thing of beauty from "Prof Mark Barber OBE"
Sir, I believe you cited cf footnote 2
November 25, 2024 at 8:44 AM
Sir, I believe you cited cf footnote 2
In the conclusion, we advise people not to fall for a false equivalency on zoning reforms. There is:
1) strong evidence upzoning in Auckland helped to boost housing supply and reduce rents; and
2) no credible evidence they did not.
IMHO cities should not delay but instead upzone today!
1) strong evidence upzoning in Auckland helped to boost housing supply and reduce rents; and
2) no credible evidence they did not.
IMHO cities should not delay but instead upzone today!
November 25, 2024 at 6:18 AM
In the conclusion, we advise people not to fall for a false equivalency on zoning reforms. There is:
1) strong evidence upzoning in Auckland helped to boost housing supply and reduce rents; and
2) no credible evidence they did not.
IMHO cities should not delay but instead upzone today!
1) strong evidence upzoning in Auckland helped to boost housing supply and reduce rents; and
2) no credible evidence they did not.
IMHO cities should not delay but instead upzone today!
The strong evidence that upzoning led to more housing and lower rents in Auckland aligns with:
1) a large body of literature that uses different methods in other settings; and
2) the views of a large majority of economists.
Auckland's experience is really ... positive but unsurprising!?!
1) a large body of literature that uses different methods in other settings; and
2) the views of a large majority of economists.
Auckland's experience is really ... positive but unsurprising!?!
November 25, 2024 at 6:18 AM
The strong evidence that upzoning led to more housing and lower rents in Auckland aligns with:
1) a large body of literature that uses different methods in other settings; and
2) the views of a large majority of economists.
Auckland's experience is really ... positive but unsurprising!?!
1) a large body of literature that uses different methods in other settings; and
2) the views of a large majority of economists.
Auckland's experience is really ... positive but unsurprising!?!
In the intro, we note: "... all reasonable methods find that the AUP had economically and statistically significant effects. The consistency of this finding implies that the impacts of upzoning are robust ..."
Jump to Figure 8 and the associated text for some of the juicy deets.
Jump to Figure 8 and the associated text for some of the juicy deets.
November 25, 2024 at 6:18 AM
In the intro, we note: "... all reasonable methods find that the AUP had economically and statistically significant effects. The consistency of this finding implies that the impacts of upzoning are robust ..."
Jump to Figure 8 and the associated text for some of the juicy deets.
Jump to Figure 8 and the associated text for some of the juicy deets.
Our paper reviews these studies of upzoning in Auckland through the lens of informal critiques that have been levelled via blog posts and social media.
Per the abstract, we find that these critiques have little to no merit: They misunderstand the papers’ methods and rely on inappropriate analyses.
Per the abstract, we find that these critiques have little to no merit: They misunderstand the papers’ methods and rely on inappropriate analyses.
November 25, 2024 at 6:18 AM
Our paper reviews these studies of upzoning in Auckland through the lens of informal critiques that have been levelled via blog posts and social media.
Per the abstract, we find that these critiques have little to no merit: They misunderstand the papers’ methods and rely on inappropriate analyses.
Per the abstract, we find that these critiques have little to no merit: They misunderstand the papers’ methods and rely on inappropriate analyses.
In this working paper that was published today, Matthew Maltman and I review some of the economic evidence on the effects of ✨upzoning✨in Auckland in 2016.
tldr: We find remarkably robust evidence that upzoning led to more housing and lower rents in Auckland. Wow!
www.motu.nz/our-research...
tldr: We find remarkably robust evidence that upzoning led to more housing and lower rents in Auckland. Wow!
www.motu.nz/our-research...
November 25, 2024 at 6:18 AM
In this working paper that was published today, Matthew Maltman and I review some of the economic evidence on the effects of ✨upzoning✨in Auckland in 2016.
tldr: We find remarkably robust evidence that upzoning led to more housing and lower rents in Auckland. Wow!
www.motu.nz/our-research...
tldr: We find remarkably robust evidence that upzoning led to more housing and lower rents in Auckland. Wow!
www.motu.nz/our-research...