Yes, the EU are slow-walking ending dependency on Russian gas and there is an uptick in RU LNG imports, but it should be noted that we are now down to the last 2 sources of supply (UA transit ended Jan 1st). An EU ban on RU LNG in 2025 would still put it well ahead of its self imposed 2027 deadline.

Unlikely, higher prices are attracting lots more LNG and we are back to milder winter weather.

It has been 10 days since Russia stopped supplying gas to Austria's OMV. But the gas is still flowing, sold via a Slovakian middleman instead. Russia has a bigger need to sell this gas than Europe has to buy it, but without a political intervention to stop giving RU revenue, this gas will flow on

About time too

The next energy crisis framing is overly dramatic. The EU will have sufficient storage to last it through winter even if the colder weather persists (not likely, looks like next weeks will see milder winter weather return). ENTSOG modeling below. Though ofc emotion seems to trump reality in the TTF

Nor does Europe actually need additional LNG imports from the US in the coming years by the way. Existing and under construction US export capacity already outpaces expected EU demand. And the global LNG market is expected to tilt into oversupply from 2026 onwards. (4/5)

Javier argues the EU could just buy more US LNG. The US already supplies nearly 50% of EU LNG demand. That is a lot of leverage Trump has over EU energy security and gas prices which should make EU policy makers deeply uncomfortable. The last thing we should do is make that leverage bigger. (3/5)

The EU is already showing what that looks like in the power sector, where renewables have driven down gas demand by 15%.(source: EMBER) And it is trying to replicate that success through electrification in the buildings and industry sectors though progress there is arguably still much too slow.(2/5)

Let's go