Wolfs is fun

@benshimshon.bsky.social and I did a bit of polling on this earlier in the year- quite interesting on who cares most about the broken promise
www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Thanks for writing it! Nice to come across that rogue called Wesley Ball too

Feels like a point that gets missed in the Labour political analysis - huge issue on doorstep/media, but has no track record of being decisive in general elections

Do you think it’s fair to say that, despite the prominence it plays during several parliaments, it hasn’t actually been decisive as an issue at a general election since 1970? Eg 2005 it’s obvs not decisive as the Tories lose, 2010 it helps Cameron but it’s not the big factor etc?

Have there been any general elections in your lifetime where immigration was more prominent than 2005 as an issue in the campaign?

And the correlation between trust answers in surveys, and trusting behaviour is often not that strong e.g. people say they wouldn't hand over their phones if asked, but many actually do heinonline.org/HOL/LandingP...

From a trust POV, trust only matters to behaviour when people are exposed to risk, so some of this assets-as-insurance idea could also explain why people can vote for politicians they don't see as trustworthy (in the sense of being reliable/credible/competent/low-risk)

If you've not seen it, this study's great on that point - eurosceptic policy preferences + having property that could protect you from economic instabilty combined to drive the Brexit vote www.cambridge.org/core/service...

They need to drill down much more into whose trust we need, what do we need them to trust in - and whether those institutions are yet deserving of that greater trust. More details here: www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Anthony Price’s Our Man in Camelot is a fun thriller that plays with this stuff, good holiday read

Instead of a binary platform / no platform policy, could someone like the BBC publish ratings of its on-the-record sources e.g. AAA if it's completely factual, balanced, and honest about gaps in knowledge, AA if it doesn't lie, uses good evidence to support its agenda... right the way down to junk.

Also that the people who know most and care most about the letter of Labour’s promises are… people who chose Reform over Labour in 2024 (if I remember right)