PNS graph with Others = 100-Con-Lab-LD, which this year is a remarkable 48%.

BBC Projected National Share (PNS) share of the local election vote:

Con 15
Lab 20
LD 17
Green 11
Reform 30

By contrast, clear signs of tactical voting in Runcorn by-election. Pre-election polls clearly flagged close Labour-Reform contest. Change since 2019 shows the danger for the Conservatives of Reform becoming principal challenger on the right. In Runcorn Lab+LD+Grn > Reform+Con.

West of England result is enough to make Duverger turn in his grave. But perhaps unsurprising there was little tactical voting. Green and Labour expected top two. For different reasons, Con, LD and Reform supports don't care much for one over the other. Also, no one far behind. So huge uncertainty.