※彼らが戦争に無関心になったわけではない。友人は毎日９時には戦死者に黙祷を捧げる。もう二度とロシア語は話さないと決意を語る。ロシアへの憎悪は全く小さくなっていない。それとこれとは別の話。

※実際20項目とか、ゼxトラ会談とか、安全の保証とか、国民投票実施の条件とかの細かい話を追えている人は、ウクライナでもだいぶ少数派だろうとは思う。「プーチンは続ける」という大前提が消え去ったように見えない限り、その他細部をいくら議論したところで時間の無駄だという意見も、まあわかる。

4/ Russian milbloggers also acknowledged that Russia’s failures in Kupyansk indicate that Russia does not have sufficient manpower or materiel to imminently defeat the northern part of the Fortress Belt while simultaneously continuing offensive operations elsewhere.

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar122425

2/ Russian forces continue to strike energy infrastructure in Ukraine & particularly targeted critical infrastructure in Chernihiv Obl. Consecutive strikes on energy infrastructure in western and eastern Ukraine are likely part of the Russian ongoing campaign to split Ukraine’s energy grid in half.

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar122325

6/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

5/ The Russian Baltic Fleet is reportedly reforming its 336th Naval Infantry Brigade into the 120th Naval Infantry Division – the ninth new maneuver division that Russia has formed since 2022.

4/ Russian gains likely will continue to be constrained to a slow foot pace, and any sudden Russian operational-level breakthrough remains unlikely.

3/ Combat footage showing failed Russian mechanized assaults continue to demonstrate that Russian forces have been unable to restore mechanized maneuver to the battlefield.

Other Key Takeaways:

2/ Russian forces conducted a reduced battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Dobropillya direction and a reduced-platoon sized mechanized assault in the Kostyantynivka direction on December 22.

Other Key Takeaways:
A constitutional crisis in Taiwan risks preventing the passage of the special defense budget in the short term. Failure to pass the budget promptly will undermine Taiwanese efforts to implement an asymmetric defense strategy.