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A huge thank you to my co-authors Judith Verstegen @utrechtuniversity.bsky.social, George van Voorn @w-u-r.bsky.social, Sabin Roman from the Jozef Stefan Institute and Arend Ligtenberg @w-u-r.bsky.social for their work during this process.

On a side note, I started work on this topic during my PhD after getting funding from my graduate school @pe-rc.bsky.social at @w-u-r.bsky.social in late 2020. We first submitted the manuscript in July 2022. In other words, we spent more time in the publication process than on the actual research!

We hope this work paves the way towards a principled, measurable, and replicable science of scenario generation.

Evaluated using three distinct criteria for scenario sets (diversity, plausibility, and comprehensiveness), we find that our proposed approach performs equally to or better than the three existing approaches.

We compare our proposed method "scenario search" against three other scenario generation methods (clustering model outputs, generic archetypes, and scenario matrices) using Schelling's segregation model as a case study.