On returns, the policy was a winner. Japanese equities have surged in recent years, and the BoJ's ETF holdings are now worth about double their book value. That's trillions of yen in paper gains--compare that to other central banks that have booked large bond losses.

In hindsight, those fears look overstated. The BoJ stuck to broad, diversified ETFs (first Nikkei 225, later TOPIX). That kept risks limited and avoided distorting corporate governance more than any other passive investor.

Most of the BoJ's ETFs were bought under former Governor Kuroda to ease policy by lowering capital costs and boosting risk-taking. Critics worried about distortions and losses. Few other central banks ever dared to buy equities.

About a week ago, the BoJ said it will start selling ETFs and J-REITs. Markets sold off at first but quickly calmed. ETF buying was always one of the BoJ's more contentious policies--but in hindsight, it proved surprisingly successful.

Governments worldwide are leveraging subsidies to attract chipmakers to their shores. The U.S. leads in project count. But looking beyond the U.S., most new investment favours Asia. Decades of centralisation have deeply embedded a chip supply chain across the region.

The U.S. stands out as a key player in both sourcing and attracting AI-related investment.

That investment surge continues, even though total cross-border investment has slowed amid intensifying trade friction and fragmenting supply chains.

The rise of large language models, which sparked the generative and agentic AI boom, has coincided with surging investment in data centres and semiconductors post-2022.

But that doesn't stack up. Official FX action would clash with Tokyo's efforts to keep trade tensions in check—tariff talks just got underway—and the data don't support it. Proxies that signalled intervention in 2024 are quiet this time. /5

The dust is still settling, but early data undercut the idea that Tokyo sparked the market jitters. Japanese investors did sell some foreign bonds—likely Treasuries—during the first two weeks of April... /2

U.S. Treasuries sold off in early April, sending yields surging and fuelling speculation about sales by Japanese, Chinese, and European investors. /1

Here's a chart of Japan's outward portfolio investment using balance of payments data. This includes all flows, not just retail. Outflows today are clearly lower than pre-pandemic (when the yen was much stronger, by the way).