Steffe
@stefan04.bsky.social
This makes so much sense, yet 10 year yields have been on a downtrend all of Trumps second term so far. I wonder what scenarios bond vigilantes see here. Who are the candidates that would ignore Trump and conduct a tighter policy than Hassett? And what is the likelihood for that?
December 2, 2025 at 7:06 PM
This makes so much sense, yet 10 year yields have been on a downtrend all of Trumps second term so far. I wonder what scenarios bond vigilantes see here. Who are the candidates that would ignore Trump and conduct a tighter policy than Hassett? And what is the likelihood for that?
I basically agree and don’t expect planned measures to go in the right direction. Having said that, there is the secular trend towards private equity away from public companies. That may be worth addressing. I do not know the issue but intuitively more transparency and access are good.
December 2, 2025 at 1:18 PM
I basically agree and don’t expect planned measures to go in the right direction. Having said that, there is the secular trend towards private equity away from public companies. That may be worth addressing. I do not know the issue but intuitively more transparency and access are good.
Math is not rewarded either for college admission or remuneration as you graduate from college or university. It just isn‘t.
November 23, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Math is not rewarded either for college admission or remuneration as you graduate from college or university. It just isn‘t.
What is the evidence that math skills are important to an individual student? I really don‘t see it.
November 23, 2025 at 11:35 PM
What is the evidence that math skills are important to an individual student? I really don‘t see it.
What does this mean? You think taxes should be 65% because now is no different from then? if I’m stupid, can I at least be informed about a. What my stupid opinion is and b. What your enlightened opinion is.
November 22, 2025 at 12:47 AM
What does this mean? You think taxes should be 65% because now is no different from then? if I’m stupid, can I at least be informed about a. What my stupid opinion is and b. What your enlightened opinion is.
The Democrats need to have competitive primaries where candidates don’t fold for no reason and don’t cave into establishment pressure. Eg Biden didn’t run in 2016 and candidates withdrew in 2020 as Biden won SC. Obama on the other hand went for it.
November 18, 2025 at 1:40 AM
The Democrats need to have competitive primaries where candidates don’t fold for no reason and don’t cave into establishment pressure. Eg Biden didn’t run in 2016 and candidates withdrew in 2020 as Biden won SC. Obama on the other hand went for it.
I do not share any of these feelings. my feelings are that markets and policy makers are hysterical. Business decisions and policies need to be robust too monthly variations. Of course, high quality statistics are essential, but not to calm markets and provide a false sense of certainty.
November 18, 2025 at 12:47 AM
I do not share any of these feelings. my feelings are that markets and policy makers are hysterical. Business decisions and policies need to be robust too monthly variations. Of course, high quality statistics are essential, but not to calm markets and provide a false sense of certainty.
100%
The Democrats must have real primaries where candidates try very hard to win the nomination and don’t fold or don’t run as soon as establishment figures say they should.
I then wish there is a really strong candidate who is not a democratic socialist who wins the nomination and presidency.
The Democrats must have real primaries where candidates try very hard to win the nomination and don’t fold or don’t run as soon as establishment figures say they should.
I then wish there is a really strong candidate who is not a democratic socialist who wins the nomination and presidency.
November 6, 2025 at 12:49 AM
100%
The Democrats must have real primaries where candidates try very hard to win the nomination and don’t fold or don’t run as soon as establishment figures say they should.
I then wish there is a really strong candidate who is not a democratic socialist who wins the nomination and presidency.
The Democrats must have real primaries where candidates try very hard to win the nomination and don’t fold or don’t run as soon as establishment figures say they should.
I then wish there is a really strong candidate who is not a democratic socialist who wins the nomination and presidency.
Really good and thought provoking read.
The closest parallell I cm think of is the internet / communications hardware investment boom in the 90s (not the dotcom boom). Most companies came out ok but there was definitely over investment and hype.
The closest parallell I cm think of is the internet / communications hardware investment boom in the 90s (not the dotcom boom). Most companies came out ok but there was definitely over investment and hype.
November 1, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Really good and thought provoking read.
The closest parallell I cm think of is the internet / communications hardware investment boom in the 90s (not the dotcom boom). Most companies came out ok but there was definitely over investment and hype.
The closest parallell I cm think of is the internet / communications hardware investment boom in the 90s (not the dotcom boom). Most companies came out ok but there was definitely over investment and hype.
That makes sense, but the doctor in the video talks about resident doctors (?).
September 20, 2025 at 6:13 AM
That makes sense, but the doctor in the video talks about resident doctors (?).
Losing out on many of the “smarts” is a problem, but the guy in the video talks about fewer residents in the period after Trump’s current term ends. I don’t understand the mechanism for that scenario.
September 20, 2025 at 6:11 AM
Losing out on many of the “smarts” is a problem, but the guy in the video talks about fewer residents in the period after Trump’s current term ends. I don’t understand the mechanism for that scenario.
I don’t understand in terms of
numbers. How will fewer H1B visas result in fewer med students and graduates? Applicants exceed spots. Or is the effect fewer med graduates will be allowed to work in the US? That can be changed with a stroke of a pen.
numbers. How will fewer H1B visas result in fewer med students and graduates? Applicants exceed spots. Or is the effect fewer med graduates will be allowed to work in the US? That can be changed with a stroke of a pen.
September 20, 2025 at 5:51 AM
I don’t understand in terms of
numbers. How will fewer H1B visas result in fewer med students and graduates? Applicants exceed spots. Or is the effect fewer med graduates will be allowed to work in the US? That can be changed with a stroke of a pen.
numbers. How will fewer H1B visas result in fewer med students and graduates? Applicants exceed spots. Or is the effect fewer med graduates will be allowed to work in the US? That can be changed with a stroke of a pen.
I don’t think so. Presumably a queue in an English pub corresponds to a bar scrum.
September 18, 2025 at 4:55 PM
I don’t think so. Presumably a queue in an English pub corresponds to a bar scrum.
Unfortunately most of them won’t see anything wrong and will not see any need for prtetzeling. Just “own the libs” while trampling on the most basic conservative principles.
September 18, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Unfortunately most of them won’t see anything wrong and will not see any need for prtetzeling. Just “own the libs” while trampling on the most basic conservative principles.
Great questions BTW. Until you got the mic no one seem to have noticed the 800 pound gorilla sitting right behind the Chairman.
BTW.you
September 18, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Great questions BTW. Until you got the mic no one seem to have noticed the 800 pound gorilla sitting right behind the Chairman.
At the same time you only need 7 votes to change the fed funds rate trajectory (and block regional bank president reappointments IIRC). This can all change very fast. Your colleague Ferro made the point that by December all fed decisions will be made knowing who the next chairman will be.
September 18, 2025 at 8:09 AM
At the same time you only need 7 votes to change the fed funds rate trajectory (and block regional bank president reappointments IIRC). This can all change very fast. Your colleague Ferro made the point that by December all fed decisions will be made knowing who the next chairman will be.
Just like liberals miss George W Bush and conservatives miss Barack Obama?
September 18, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Just like liberals miss George W Bush and conservatives miss Barack Obama?
Bloomberg commentators labeled it an insurance cut of the feds funds rate. I think that describes it well. They are in a tricky situation. The 2% inflation target is losing credibility.
September 18, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Bloomberg commentators labeled it an insurance cut of the feds funds rate. I think that describes it well. They are in a tricky situation. The 2% inflation target is losing credibility.
Thank you for standing up and being tough.
August 22, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Thank you for standing up and being tough.
Non establishment candidates are needed. Period. Heard Kinzinger yesterday claiming that Democrats in congress appoint key positions by seniority while Republicans less so with more focus on impact. If that’s true, it’s a massive flaw and explains quite a bit of the deafening silence.
August 22, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Non establishment candidates are needed. Period. Heard Kinzinger yesterday claiming that Democrats in congress appoint key positions by seniority while Republicans less so with more focus on impact. If that’s true, it’s a massive flaw and explains quite a bit of the deafening silence.
I’m a policy expert. Why would I pay to read evaluation experts argue about the meaning of policy evaluation?
August 22, 2025 at 5:27 PM
I’m a policy expert. Why would I pay to read evaluation experts argue about the meaning of policy evaluation?
So, basically a 0% real rate floor.
August 22, 2025 at 4:57 PM
So, basically a 0% real rate floor.