Very Grumpy Statistician
@statistic.bsky.social
• 26
• he/him
• bri'ish
• Somewhere on the left
• PhD Researcher in AI and Stats
• Kofola Addict
• Ćevapi Lover
• Opinion Poll Plotter
• Speak: 🇳🇱🇩🇪
• he/him
• bri'ish
• Somewhere on the left
• PhD Researcher in AI and Stats
• Kofola Addict
• Ćevapi Lover
• Opinion Poll Plotter
• Speak: 🇳🇱🇩🇪
I wouldn't normally ever look at polling subsamples, but even with the clear instability of such a small sample size, Labour had a clear lead of basically 50% with 18-24 years olds for the entirety of the last parliament.
Compare that to this year:
never over 50% and since Oct a widening green lead
Compare that to this year:
never over 50% and since Oct a widening green lead
November 17, 2025 at 1:28 PM
I wouldn't normally ever look at polling subsamples, but even with the clear instability of such a small sample size, Labour had a clear lead of basically 50% with 18-24 years olds for the entirety of the last parliament.
Compare that to this year:
never over 50% and since Oct a widening green lead
Compare that to this year:
never over 50% and since Oct a widening green lead
It's wild and unfathomable to Labour that as soon as a party (the Greens) starts talking about hope and a brighter future and pulling people up instead of attacking and demonising a different minority group each week that they surge in the polls!
November 17, 2025 at 1:28 PM
It's wild and unfathomable to Labour that as soon as a party (the Greens) starts talking about hope and a brighter future and pulling people up instead of attacking and demonising a different minority group each week that they surge in the polls!
What in the ever loving FPTP is this
November 17, 2025 at 12:22 PM
What in the ever loving FPTP is this
Well got my referral letter:
Undisplaced fracture of the proximal humerus Greater Tuberosity
Aka the image in the left I think. Which isn't too bad I think?
Undisplaced fracture of the proximal humerus Greater Tuberosity
Aka the image in the left I think. Which isn't too bad I think?
November 16, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Well got my referral letter:
Undisplaced fracture of the proximal humerus Greater Tuberosity
Aka the image in the left I think. Which isn't too bad I think?
Undisplaced fracture of the proximal humerus Greater Tuberosity
Aka the image in the left I think. Which isn't too bad I think?
de meest onstabiele verkiezingen...ooit?
letterlijk wat de fok is deze 5-daags gemiddelde?
letterlijk wat de fok is deze 5-daags gemiddelde?
October 29, 2025 at 1:07 AM
de meest onstabiele verkiezingen...ooit?
letterlijk wat de fok is deze 5-daags gemiddelde?
letterlijk wat de fok is deze 5-daags gemiddelde?
ik, in de tijdmachine:
October 26, 2025 at 9:35 PM
ik, in de tijdmachine:
Voorlopige analyse van de verkiezinguitslag
October 26, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Voorlopige analyse van de verkiezinguitslag
Ik kom uit de toekomst, met een visie, een vreselijke visie...
October 26, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Ik kom uit de toekomst, met een visie, een vreselijke visie...
Er zijn geen mogelijke coalities...
October 26, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Er zijn geen mogelijke coalities...
Minister-President.....Rob Jetten?
D66 regering....?? wat de fok
D66 regering....?? wat de fok
October 25, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Minister-President.....Rob Jetten?
D66 regering....?? wat de fok
D66 regering....?? wat de fok
The Harmandir Sahib has been lit up and looks beautiful this morning!
October 21, 2025 at 1:37 AM
The Harmandir Sahib has been lit up and looks beautiful this morning!
Happy Bandi Chhor Divas, Day of Liberation! It celebrates the day in 1619 when Guru Hargobind Ji liberated 52 prisoners from Gwalior prison who were being held hostage by the Mughals under Jahangir. May we fight for the freedom of all those unjustly imprisoned around the world!
October 21, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Happy Bandi Chhor Divas, Day of Liberation! It celebrates the day in 1619 when Guru Hargobind Ji liberated 52 prisoners from Gwalior prison who were being held hostage by the Mughals under Jahangir. May we fight for the freedom of all those unjustly imprisoned around the world!
Truly a great idea, lets make the US Senate even older!
STOP RUNNING PEOPLE PAST THE AGE OF RETIREMENT FOR SENATE, NO WONDER YOUNG PEOPLE ARE DISILLUSIONED WITH POLITICS, LOOK AT WHO IS REPRESENTING THEM!
STOP RUNNING PEOPLE PAST THE AGE OF RETIREMENT FOR SENATE, NO WONDER YOUNG PEOPLE ARE DISILLUSIONED WITH POLITICS, LOOK AT WHO IS REPRESENTING THEM!
October 16, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Truly a great idea, lets make the US Senate even older!
STOP RUNNING PEOPLE PAST THE AGE OF RETIREMENT FOR SENATE, NO WONDER YOUNG PEOPLE ARE DISILLUSIONED WITH POLITICS, LOOK AT WHO IS REPRESENTING THEM!
STOP RUNNING PEOPLE PAST THE AGE OF RETIREMENT FOR SENATE, NO WONDER YOUNG PEOPLE ARE DISILLUSIONED WITH POLITICS, LOOK AT WHO IS REPRESENTING THEM!
ND rise over,
PASOK stable in 2nd,
PE fall continues,
MERA25 surge?!
New Seat Projections (Changes with 26 day ago/2023):
ND: 116(-6/-42)
PASOK: 40(-2/+8)
PE: 37(-3/+29)
EL: 30(-1/+18)
KKE: 24(-2/+2)
SYRIZA: 20(+1/-27)
MERA25: 12(+12/+12)
FL: 11(+1/+11)
KD: 10(-/New)
NIKI: 0(-/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
PASOK stable in 2nd,
PE fall continues,
MERA25 surge?!
New Seat Projections (Changes with 26 day ago/2023):
ND: 116(-6/-42)
PASOK: 40(-2/+8)
PE: 37(-3/+29)
EL: 30(-1/+18)
KKE: 24(-2/+2)
SYRIZA: 20(+1/-27)
MERA25: 12(+12/+12)
FL: 11(+1/+11)
KD: 10(-/New)
NIKI: 0(-/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
July 18, 2025 at 10:45 PM
ND rise over,
PASOK stable in 2nd,
PE fall continues,
MERA25 surge?!
New Seat Projections (Changes with 26 day ago/2023):
ND: 116(-6/-42)
PASOK: 40(-2/+8)
PE: 37(-3/+29)
EL: 30(-1/+18)
KKE: 24(-2/+2)
SYRIZA: 20(+1/-27)
MERA25: 12(+12/+12)
FL: 11(+1/+11)
KD: 10(-/New)
NIKI: 0(-/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
PASOK stable in 2nd,
PE fall continues,
MERA25 surge?!
New Seat Projections (Changes with 26 day ago/2023):
ND: 116(-6/-42)
PASOK: 40(-2/+8)
PE: 37(-3/+29)
EL: 30(-1/+18)
KKE: 24(-2/+2)
SYRIZA: 20(+1/-27)
MERA25: 12(+12/+12)
FL: 11(+1/+11)
KD: 10(-/New)
NIKI: 0(-/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
The UK has become woke
June 24, 2025 at 12:58 PM
The UK has become woke
PASOK back in 2nd!
MERA25 and NIKI below threshold!
ND surge continues!?!
New Seat Projections (Changes with 16 day ago/2023):
ND: 122(+8/-36)
PASOK: 42(+3/+10)
PE: 40(-/+32)
EL: 31(+3/+19)
KKE: 26(+1/+4)
SYRIZA: 19(+1/-28)
KD: 10(+1/New)
FL: 10(+1/+10)
MERA25: 0(-9/-)
NIKI: 0(-9/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
MERA25 and NIKI below threshold!
ND surge continues!?!
New Seat Projections (Changes with 16 day ago/2023):
ND: 122(+8/-36)
PASOK: 42(+3/+10)
PE: 40(-/+32)
EL: 31(+3/+19)
KKE: 26(+1/+4)
SYRIZA: 19(+1/-28)
KD: 10(+1/New)
FL: 10(+1/+10)
MERA25: 0(-9/-)
NIKI: 0(-9/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
June 22, 2025 at 7:23 PM
PASOK back in 2nd!
MERA25 and NIKI below threshold!
ND surge continues!?!
New Seat Projections (Changes with 16 day ago/2023):
ND: 122(+8/-36)
PASOK: 42(+3/+10)
PE: 40(-/+32)
EL: 31(+3/+19)
KKE: 26(+1/+4)
SYRIZA: 19(+1/-28)
KD: 10(+1/New)
FL: 10(+1/+10)
MERA25: 0(-9/-)
NIKI: 0(-9/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
MERA25 and NIKI below threshold!
ND surge continues!?!
New Seat Projections (Changes with 16 day ago/2023):
ND: 122(+8/-36)
PASOK: 42(+3/+10)
PE: 40(-/+32)
EL: 31(+3/+19)
KKE: 26(+1/+4)
SYRIZA: 19(+1/-28)
KD: 10(+1/New)
FL: 10(+1/+10)
MERA25: 0(-9/-)
NIKI: 0(-9/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
This island is not a real place man
June 9, 2025 at 12:35 PM
This island is not a real place man
I have reasons to believe this might be an excessive number of bathrooms....
June 6, 2025 at 1:45 PM
I have reasons to believe this might be an excessive number of bathrooms....
TISZA lead widens!
June 6, 2025 at 12:24 AM
TISZA lead widens!
American healthcare: the most embarrassing thing on earth honestly....
June 2, 2025 at 12:36 PM
American healthcare: the most embarrassing thing on earth honestly....
The fact that India has never caught up with China on Life Expectancy, or the fact it got overtaken in the first place is kind of insane when you think about the fact that China was coming out of the great leap forward and a civil war that was preceded by horrific Japanese occupation
June 2, 2025 at 12:11 PM
The fact that India has never caught up with China on Life Expectancy, or the fact it got overtaken in the first place is kind of insane when you think about the fact that China was coming out of the great leap forward and a civil war that was preceded by horrific Japanese occupation
TISZA stays on top in Hungary!
May 30, 2025 at 10:52 PM
TISZA stays on top in Hungary!
17 POLLS IN ONE DAY WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU KOREA
May 30, 2025 at 10:43 PM
17 POLLS IN ONE DAY WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU KOREA
Mera25 back over threshold!
New Seat Projections (Changes with 1 day ago/2023):
ND: 119(-4/-39)
PE: 42(-2/+34)
PASOK: 41(-2/+9)
EL: 27(-/+15)
KKE: 25(-/+3)
SYRIZA: 17(-1/-30)
NIKI: 10(-/+1)
KD: 10(-/New)
MERA25: 9(+9/+9)
FL: 0(-/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
New Seat Projections (Changes with 1 day ago/2023):
ND: 119(-4/-39)
PE: 42(-2/+34)
PASOK: 41(-2/+9)
EL: 27(-/+15)
KKE: 25(-/+3)
SYRIZA: 17(-1/-30)
NIKI: 10(-/+1)
KD: 10(-/New)
MERA25: 9(+9/+9)
FL: 0(-/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
May 29, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Mera25 back over threshold!
New Seat Projections (Changes with 1 day ago/2023):
ND: 119(-4/-39)
PE: 42(-2/+34)
PASOK: 41(-2/+9)
EL: 27(-/+15)
KKE: 25(-/+3)
SYRIZA: 17(-1/-30)
NIKI: 10(-/+1)
KD: 10(-/New)
MERA25: 9(+9/+9)
FL: 0(-/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)
New Seat Projections (Changes with 1 day ago/2023):
ND: 119(-4/-39)
PE: 42(-2/+34)
PASOK: 41(-2/+9)
EL: 27(-/+15)
KKE: 25(-/+3)
SYRIZA: 17(-1/-30)
NIKI: 10(-/+1)
KD: 10(-/New)
MERA25: 9(+9/+9)
FL: 0(-/-)
SP: 0 (-/-12)