Stephen Stapczynski
@sstapczynski.bsky.social
The LNG nerd on Bluesky
Energy & commodities reporter at Bloomberg News in Singapore. Opinions my own
Interests include natural gas, LNG, oil, power, coal, nuclear, renewables, climate change
Energy & commodities reporter at Bloomberg News in Singapore. Opinions my own
Interests include natural gas, LNG, oil, power, coal, nuclear, renewables, climate change
Meanwhile, stocks for turbine suppliers have rallied
October 2, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Meanwhile, stocks for turbine suppliers have rallied
The good news is that suppliers are taking step to lift production capacity
GE Vernova announced plans to expand capacity to 70-80 heavy-duty gas turbines a year from 2026, up from 55 turbines
Mitsubishi Heavy is urgently seeking to add gas-turbine capacity in the next 2 years
GE Vernova announced plans to expand capacity to 70-80 heavy-duty gas turbines a year from 2026, up from 55 turbines
Mitsubishi Heavy is urgently seeking to add gas-turbine capacity in the next 2 years
October 2, 2025 at 2:26 PM
The good news is that suppliers are taking step to lift production capacity
GE Vernova announced plans to expand capacity to 70-80 heavy-duty gas turbines a year from 2026, up from 55 turbines
Mitsubishi Heavy is urgently seeking to add gas-turbine capacity in the next 2 years
GE Vernova announced plans to expand capacity to 70-80 heavy-duty gas turbines a year from 2026, up from 55 turbines
Mitsubishi Heavy is urgently seeking to add gas-turbine capacity in the next 2 years
This is also driving up the cost of power plants
A new combined cycle-gas plant cost about $800/kW in 2021
Now it is as high as $2,800/kW
So in developed nations relying on more gas, power prices could also rise even higher
A new combined cycle-gas plant cost about $800/kW in 2021
Now it is as high as $2,800/kW
So in developed nations relying on more gas, power prices could also rise even higher
October 2, 2025 at 2:26 PM
This is also driving up the cost of power plants
A new combined cycle-gas plant cost about $800/kW in 2021
Now it is as high as $2,800/kW
So in developed nations relying on more gas, power prices could also rise even higher
A new combined cycle-gas plant cost about $800/kW in 2021
Now it is as high as $2,800/kW
So in developed nations relying on more gas, power prices could also rise even higher
Anyway, so as rich nations scoop up more gas turbines that risks leaving fewer for emerging nations (which had adopted aggressive gas power strategies)
Lets take Vietnam. They want to build at least 22 gas-fired power plants by 2030. This isnt an AI boom thing, its just growth
Lets take Vietnam. They want to build at least 22 gas-fired power plants by 2030. This isnt an AI boom thing, its just growth
October 2, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Anyway, so as rich nations scoop up more gas turbines that risks leaving fewer for emerging nations (which had adopted aggressive gas power strategies)
Lets take Vietnam. They want to build at least 22 gas-fired power plants by 2030. This isnt an AI boom thing, its just growth
Lets take Vietnam. They want to build at least 22 gas-fired power plants by 2030. This isnt an AI boom thing, its just growth
🇺🇸 US power demand is slated to grow 25% by 2030, a reversal of relatively flat consumption since 2010. This is due in part to the AI boom, and data centers are turning to gas to feed energy needs
October 2, 2025 at 2:24 PM
🇺🇸 US power demand is slated to grow 25% by 2030, a reversal of relatively flat consumption since 2010. This is due in part to the AI boom, and data centers are turning to gas to feed energy needs
The three suppliers have tight control over their IP. You cant easily enter the space because you need decades of testing and experience
While China is trying to develop their own turbine, theyre still far behind. China depends on equipment from the big three
While China is trying to develop their own turbine, theyre still far behind. China depends on equipment from the big three
October 2, 2025 at 2:22 PM
The three suppliers have tight control over their IP. You cant easily enter the space because you need decades of testing and experience
While China is trying to develop their own turbine, theyre still far behind. China depends on equipment from the big three
While China is trying to develop their own turbine, theyre still far behind. China depends on equipment from the big three
That history, along with a few decades of lackluster sales and plateauing power requirements in the US and Europe, meant the suppliers were largely unprepared when electricity consumption accelerated after the pandemic, ushering in the new race for turbines
October 2, 2025 at 2:21 PM
That history, along with a few decades of lackluster sales and plateauing power requirements in the US and Europe, meant the suppliers were largely unprepared when electricity consumption accelerated after the pandemic, ushering in the new race for turbines
The technology’s deployment surged in the 1990s with the US power market’s deregulation. Gas turbines were favored for their speed of installation and efficiency, triggering a rush in orders
October 2, 2025 at 2:20 PM
The technology’s deployment surged in the 1990s with the US power market’s deregulation. Gas turbines were favored for their speed of installation and efficiency, triggering a rush in orders
Since the 1960s, the hot gas exiting the process has often been harnessed to generate steam and power a second turbine, creating the combined cycle design that’s more efficient at converting fuel into electricity and has become the standard in large power plants
October 2, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Since the 1960s, the hot gas exiting the process has often been harnessed to generate steam and power a second turbine, creating the combined cycle design that’s more efficient at converting fuel into electricity and has become the standard in large power plants
So, what is a gas turbine?
Its a 500-ton machine that is just like the jet engine, but to produce electricity instead of flight
Natural gas is burned to spin blades at speeds higher than 3,000 rotations a minute to powers a connected generator
Its a 500-ton machine that is just like the jet engine, but to produce electricity instead of flight
Natural gas is burned to spin blades at speeds higher than 3,000 rotations a minute to powers a connected generator
October 2, 2025 at 2:19 PM
So, what is a gas turbine?
Its a 500-ton machine that is just like the jet engine, but to produce electricity instead of flight
Natural gas is burned to spin blades at speeds higher than 3,000 rotations a minute to powers a connected generator
Its a 500-ton machine that is just like the jet engine, but to produce electricity instead of flight
Natural gas is burned to spin blades at speeds higher than 3,000 rotations a minute to powers a connected generator
The crux of the issue is that the gas turbine market is dominated by three companies -- Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, Mitsubishi Heavy
Theyve been caught flat footed by an acceleration in orders over the last few years. And they aren’t able (or willing) to quickly boost output
Theyve been caught flat footed by an acceleration in orders over the last few years. And they aren’t able (or willing) to quickly boost output
October 2, 2025 at 2:18 PM
The crux of the issue is that the gas turbine market is dominated by three companies -- Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, Mitsubishi Heavy
Theyve been caught flat footed by an acceleration in orders over the last few years. And they aren’t able (or willing) to quickly boost output
Theyve been caught flat footed by an acceleration in orders over the last few years. And they aren’t able (or willing) to quickly boost output
GAS TURBINE SHORTAGE 🚨⚡
Orders for turbines for natural gas power plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand
🧵 Thread on how we got here and what it means for power-hungry nations
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
Orders for turbines for natural gas power plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand
🧵 Thread on how we got here and what it means for power-hungry nations
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
October 2, 2025 at 2:17 PM
GAS TURBINE SHORTAGE 🚨⚡
Orders for turbines for natural gas power plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand
🧵 Thread on how we got here and what it means for power-hungry nations
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
Orders for turbines for natural gas power plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand
🧵 Thread on how we got here and what it means for power-hungry nations
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
NEW LNG IMPORTER SOON? 🇳🇿🚢
New Zealand moves forward with plans to build a new LNG import terminal as domestic gas production falters
www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/01/g...
New Zealand moves forward with plans to build a new LNG import terminal as domestic gas production falters
www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/01/g...
October 1, 2025 at 10:20 AM
NEW LNG IMPORTER SOON? 🇳🇿🚢
New Zealand moves forward with plans to build a new LNG import terminal as domestic gas production falters
www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/01/g...
New Zealand moves forward with plans to build a new LNG import terminal as domestic gas production falters
www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/01/g...
Weak Chinese LNG demand is good news for Europe
🇨🇳🤝🇪🇺
📉 China's imports are poised to fall 22% in Sept due in part to milder weather, rising domestic output. China is the world's top LNG buyer
👍 That'll free-up supply for gas-hungry rivals elsewhere (like those in Europe)
🇨🇳🤝🇪🇺
📉 China's imports are poised to fall 22% in Sept due in part to milder weather, rising domestic output. China is the world's top LNG buyer
👍 That'll free-up supply for gas-hungry rivals elsewhere (like those in Europe)
October 1, 2025 at 9:41 AM
Weak Chinese LNG demand is good news for Europe
🇨🇳🤝🇪🇺
📉 China's imports are poised to fall 22% in Sept due in part to milder weather, rising domestic output. China is the world's top LNG buyer
👍 That'll free-up supply for gas-hungry rivals elsewhere (like those in Europe)
🇨🇳🤝🇪🇺
📉 China's imports are poised to fall 22% in Sept due in part to milder weather, rising domestic output. China is the world's top LNG buyer
👍 That'll free-up supply for gas-hungry rivals elsewhere (like those in Europe)
AI data centers are sending US power bills soaring, Bloomberg analysis shows
🇺🇸⚡📈
Wholesale prices more than doubled since 2020 in some markets, but those increases arent equal
Of the nodes where prices rose, over 70% are within 50 miles of significant data center activity
🇺🇸⚡📈
Wholesale prices more than doubled since 2020 in some markets, but those increases arent equal
Of the nodes where prices rose, over 70% are within 50 miles of significant data center activity
October 1, 2025 at 9:37 AM
AI data centers are sending US power bills soaring, Bloomberg analysis shows
🇺🇸⚡📈
Wholesale prices more than doubled since 2020 in some markets, but those increases arent equal
Of the nodes where prices rose, over 70% are within 50 miles of significant data center activity
🇺🇸⚡📈
Wholesale prices more than doubled since 2020 in some markets, but those increases arent equal
Of the nodes where prices rose, over 70% are within 50 miles of significant data center activity
MANY SUCH CASES: Louisiana’s utility regulator approved Entergy’s plan to build three new gas-fired plants to power Meta’s data center
August 20, 2025 at 10:19 PM
MANY SUCH CASES: Louisiana’s utility regulator approved Entergy’s plan to build three new gas-fired plants to power Meta’s data center
Power demand on the largest US grid is poised to surge thanks to the AI boom
🇺🇸 ⚡️📈
PJM Interconnection, which manages the 13-state system stretching from Washington DC to Illinois, expects peak summer demand to jump by 38% by 2035
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
🇺🇸 ⚡️📈
PJM Interconnection, which manages the 13-state system stretching from Washington DC to Illinois, expects peak summer demand to jump by 38% by 2035
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 25, 2025 at 2:46 AM
Power demand on the largest US grid is poised to surge thanks to the AI boom
🇺🇸 ⚡️📈
PJM Interconnection, which manages the 13-state system stretching from Washington DC to Illinois, expects peak summer demand to jump by 38% by 2035
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
🇺🇸 ⚡️📈
PJM Interconnection, which manages the 13-state system stretching from Washington DC to Illinois, expects peak summer demand to jump by 38% by 2035
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
More countries are looking to buy US oil & gas to make Trump happy 🇺🇸🛢️
🇰🇷 South Korea's trade minister said the country will consider buying more to reduce their trade surplus with the US
⚠️ Vietnam, EU & Taiwan are considering to do the same to avoid Trump's proposed tariffs
🇰🇷 South Korea's trade minister said the country will consider buying more to reduce their trade surplus with the US
⚠️ Vietnam, EU & Taiwan are considering to do the same to avoid Trump's proposed tariffs
January 16, 2025 at 2:19 PM
More countries are looking to buy US oil & gas to make Trump happy 🇺🇸🛢️
🇰🇷 South Korea's trade minister said the country will consider buying more to reduce their trade surplus with the US
⚠️ Vietnam, EU & Taiwan are considering to do the same to avoid Trump's proposed tariffs
🇰🇷 South Korea's trade minister said the country will consider buying more to reduce their trade surplus with the US
⚠️ Vietnam, EU & Taiwan are considering to do the same to avoid Trump's proposed tariffs
Vietnam aims to complete its first nuclear power plant by 2030 to boost energy security
🇻🇳❤️☢️
📝 Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ordered the REMARKABLY ambitious target today
⚠️ This comes after Vietnam was hit with blackouts in 2023 due to hot weather, coal power malfunctions
🇻🇳❤️☢️
📝 Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ordered the REMARKABLY ambitious target today
⚠️ This comes after Vietnam was hit with blackouts in 2023 due to hot weather, coal power malfunctions
January 15, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Vietnam aims to complete its first nuclear power plant by 2030 to boost energy security
🇻🇳❤️☢️
📝 Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ordered the REMARKABLY ambitious target today
⚠️ This comes after Vietnam was hit with blackouts in 2023 due to hot weather, coal power malfunctions
🇻🇳❤️☢️
📝 Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ordered the REMARKABLY ambitious target today
⚠️ This comes after Vietnam was hit with blackouts in 2023 due to hot weather, coal power malfunctions
More LNG ships divert to Europe in search of better profits 🚢🚢
🇪🇺 At least 6 ships changed course away from Asia to Europe since last week
📈 Europe needs more LNG after losing Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine
🙅♂️ Asia demand is subdued as winter ends (and prices too high)
🇪🇺 At least 6 ships changed course away from Asia to Europe since last week
📈 Europe needs more LNG after losing Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine
🙅♂️ Asia demand is subdued as winter ends (and prices too high)
January 15, 2025 at 10:03 AM
More LNG ships divert to Europe in search of better profits 🚢🚢
🇪🇺 At least 6 ships changed course away from Asia to Europe since last week
📈 Europe needs more LNG after losing Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine
🙅♂️ Asia demand is subdued as winter ends (and prices too high)
🇪🇺 At least 6 ships changed course away from Asia to Europe since last week
📈 Europe needs more LNG after losing Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine
🙅♂️ Asia demand is subdued as winter ends (and prices too high)
More LNG vessels are diverting to Europe to take advantage of better prices 🚢
📈 Four diversions from Asia to Europe in the last week. Europe needs LNG to replace the lost Russian pipeline gas supply via Ukraine
📉 Asia doesn't need the LNG as demand remains subdued
📈 Four diversions from Asia to Europe in the last week. Europe needs LNG to replace the lost Russian pipeline gas supply via Ukraine
📉 Asia doesn't need the LNG as demand remains subdued
January 13, 2025 at 7:28 AM
More LNG vessels are diverting to Europe to take advantage of better prices 🚢
📈 Four diversions from Asia to Europe in the last week. Europe needs LNG to replace the lost Russian pipeline gas supply via Ukraine
📉 Asia doesn't need the LNG as demand remains subdued
📈 Four diversions from Asia to Europe in the last week. Europe needs LNG to replace the lost Russian pipeline gas supply via Ukraine
📉 Asia doesn't need the LNG as demand remains subdued
January 12, 2025 at 2:23 PM
The US sanctioned two of Russia’s active LNG export plants 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 ⚠️
📝The restrictions targeted Portovaya and Vysotsk, Russia’s smaller LNG plants
🚢 The US (the world’s biggest LNG exporter) has been focused on halting Russia’s plans to expand gas sales
📝The restrictions targeted Portovaya and Vysotsk, Russia’s smaller LNG plants
🚢 The US (the world’s biggest LNG exporter) has been focused on halting Russia’s plans to expand gas sales
January 11, 2025 at 12:10 PM
The US sanctioned two of Russia’s active LNG export plants 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 ⚠️
📝The restrictions targeted Portovaya and Vysotsk, Russia’s smaller LNG plants
🚢 The US (the world’s biggest LNG exporter) has been focused on halting Russia’s plans to expand gas sales
📝The restrictions targeted Portovaya and Vysotsk, Russia’s smaller LNG plants
🚢 The US (the world’s biggest LNG exporter) has been focused on halting Russia’s plans to expand gas sales
The UK’s wind turbines have overtaken gas plants for the first time as the number one source of power 🇬🇧🌬️
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 6, 2025 at 10:10 AM
The UK’s wind turbines have overtaken gas plants for the first time as the number one source of power 🇬🇧🌬️
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...