Stephen Spiller
@spillersas.bsky.social
Professor of Marketing & Behavioral Decision Making at UCLA Anderson. Studies decisions. Has opinions about graphs. Thinks we should say "I don't know" more.
Not *exactly* this, but related:
A colleague has a paper "Gender Differences in Politician Persistence" (Wasserman, 2023, REStat). Regression discontinuity on differential likelihood of running for office by men vs women after winning vs losing close elections
direct.mit.edu/rest/article...
A colleague has a paper "Gender Differences in Politician Persistence" (Wasserman, 2023, REStat). Regression discontinuity on differential likelihood of running for office by men vs women after winning vs losing close elections
direct.mit.edu/rest/article...
October 22, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Not *exactly* this, but related:
A colleague has a paper "Gender Differences in Politician Persistence" (Wasserman, 2023, REStat). Regression discontinuity on differential likelihood of running for office by men vs women after winning vs losing close elections
direct.mit.edu/rest/article...
A colleague has a paper "Gender Differences in Politician Persistence" (Wasserman, 2023, REStat). Regression discontinuity on differential likelihood of running for office by men vs women after winning vs losing close elections
direct.mit.edu/rest/article...
How much of the change in predictions following White Smoke and before announcement is (a) rational market reactions (decision reached fairly quickly; more likely it was a predictable favorite), (b) concluding most-likely-as-more-likely without supporting information, or I guess (c) insider trading?
May 8, 2025 at 4:58 PM
How much of the change in predictions following White Smoke and before announcement is (a) rational market reactions (decision reached fairly quickly; more likely it was a predictable favorite), (b) concluding most-likely-as-more-likely without supporting information, or I guess (c) insider trading?
There has to be a better way
March 13, 2025 at 8:28 PM
There has to be a better way
Sticker at our Airbnb providing scale "guidance":
★★★★★ "I enjoyed my stay here"
★★★★ "There are many issues to fix"
★★★ "Major problems with my stay"
★★ "This should not be listed"
★ "I left early it was so terrible"
Tees up a discussion of measurement invariance (and attempts to shape usage...)
★★★★★ "I enjoyed my stay here"
★★★★ "There are many issues to fix"
★★★ "Major problems with my stay"
★★ "This should not be listed"
★ "I left early it was so terrible"
Tees up a discussion of measurement invariance (and attempts to shape usage...)
December 22, 2024 at 11:27 PM
Sticker at our Airbnb providing scale "guidance":
★★★★★ "I enjoyed my stay here"
★★★★ "There are many issues to fix"
★★★ "Major problems with my stay"
★★ "This should not be listed"
★ "I left early it was so terrible"
Tees up a discussion of measurement invariance (and attempts to shape usage...)
★★★★★ "I enjoyed my stay here"
★★★★ "There are many issues to fix"
★★★ "Major problems with my stay"
★★ "This should not be listed"
★ "I left early it was so terrible"
Tees up a discussion of measurement invariance (and attempts to shape usage...)
Yup! Here's a related paper (LaTour & LaTour, 2010, JCR) where they give people who enjoy wine but don't have the words to describe it an "aroma wheel" and find that ability to accurately identify which wine they tasted from a set increases.
December 20, 2024 at 9:39 PM
Yup! Here's a related paper (LaTour & LaTour, 2010, JCR) where they give people who enjoy wine but don't have the words to describe it an "aroma wheel" and find that ability to accurately identify which wine they tasted from a set increases.
"[Consumption vocabulary] helps you understand details and identify what *you* like." Of course @dieworkwear.bsky.social is right - and there's science behind it!
My favorite paper on quilts (West, Brown, & Hoch, 1996, JCR): People who developed a quilt vocabulary had more-consistent preferences.
My favorite paper on quilts (West, Brown, & Hoch, 1996, JCR): People who developed a quilt vocabulary had more-consistent preferences.
December 19, 2024 at 11:47 PM
"[Consumption vocabulary] helps you understand details and identify what *you* like." Of course @dieworkwear.bsky.social is right - and there's science behind it!
My favorite paper on quilts (West, Brown, & Hoch, 1996, JCR): People who developed a quilt vocabulary had more-consistent preferences.
My favorite paper on quilts (West, Brown, & Hoch, 1996, JCR): People who developed a quilt vocabulary had more-consistent preferences.
See also favorite figure from Holbrook & Schindler (1989) "Some exploratory findings on the development of musical tastes" Journal of Consumer Research.
(Based on ratings of individual songs, not music-by-decade. X-axis is participant-age-when-song-released. Y-axis is standardized rating.)
(Based on ratings of individual songs, not music-by-decade. X-axis is participant-age-when-song-released. Y-axis is standardized rating.)
December 17, 2024 at 10:18 PM
See also favorite figure from Holbrook & Schindler (1989) "Some exploratory findings on the development of musical tastes" Journal of Consumer Research.
(Based on ratings of individual songs, not music-by-decade. X-axis is participant-age-when-song-released. Y-axis is standardized rating.)
(Based on ratings of individual songs, not music-by-decade. X-axis is participant-age-when-song-released. Y-axis is standardized rating.)
This shark / mosquito comparison reminds me of this slide I put together in an introduction to the Availability heuristic.
I think it ranks pretty highly in terms of the appreciation-gap between myself and my students.
I think it ranks pretty highly in terms of the appreciation-gap between myself and my students.
November 24, 2024 at 3:32 AM
This shark / mosquito comparison reminds me of this slide I put together in an introduction to the Availability heuristic.
I think it ranks pretty highly in terms of the appreciation-gap between myself and my students.
I think it ranks pretty highly in terms of the appreciation-gap between myself and my students.
California sometimes conjures up extra red tape.
Voting is not one of those times.
May everyone someday have the opportunity to have a voting experience this smooth!
Voting is not one of those times.
May everyone someday have the opportunity to have a voting experience this smooth!
October 29, 2024 at 3:28 PM
California sometimes conjures up extra red tape.
Voting is not one of those times.
May everyone someday have the opportunity to have a voting experience this smooth!
Voting is not one of those times.
May everyone someday have the opportunity to have a voting experience this smooth!
There have got to be multiple ways to describe what happened that vary by more than 2 letters, right?
September 11, 2024 at 5:41 AM
There have got to be multiple ways to describe what happened that vary by more than 2 letters, right?
Important points about Social Security!
The fact that even with no fix, most promised benefits can still be paid (Point #3) is underappreciated.
A Pew poll found 40% of US adults think there will be no benefits when they retire. (2018; there's probably more-recent data out there.)
BUT...
1/n
The fact that even with no fix, most promised benefits can still be paid (Point #3) is underappreciated.
A Pew poll found 40% of US adults think there will be no benefits when they retire. (2018; there's probably more-recent data out there.)
BUT...
1/n
June 5, 2024 at 6:19 PM
Important points about Social Security!
The fact that even with no fix, most promised benefits can still be paid (Point #3) is underappreciated.
A Pew poll found 40% of US adults think there will be no benefits when they retire. (2018; there's probably more-recent data out there.)
BUT...
1/n
The fact that even with no fix, most promised benefits can still be paid (Point #3) is underappreciated.
A Pew poll found 40% of US adults think there will be no benefits when they retire. (2018; there's probably more-recent data out there.)
BUT...
1/n
That’s weird, right? It sure like a ridiculous set of forecasts given past data. And it keeps happening!
So lets turn to see what the original IEA reports said. Here’s the chart from 2017. The orange line shows historical and projected Solar PV.
3/n
So lets turn to see what the original IEA reports said. Here’s the chart from 2017. The orange line shows historical and projected Solar PV.
3/n
May 29, 2024 at 4:59 AM
That’s weird, right? It sure like a ridiculous set of forecasts given past data. And it keeps happening!
So lets turn to see what the original IEA reports said. Here’s the chart from 2017. The orange line shows historical and projected Solar PV.
3/n
So lets turn to see what the original IEA reports said. Here’s the chart from 2017. The orange line shows historical and projected Solar PV.
3/n
Whenever discussion of solar panel installation hit The Other Site, some version of the graphs below would make the rounds. Despite increasing growth in installations, somehow the forecast was always that the rate of growth stops and we suddenly flatten out. Huh?
2/n
2/n
May 29, 2024 at 4:57 AM
Whenever discussion of solar panel installation hit The Other Site, some version of the graphs below would make the rounds. Despite increasing growth in installations, somehow the forecast was always that the rate of growth stops and we suddenly flatten out. Huh?
2/n
2/n
My BlueSky timeline nicely paired these posts on solar panel installation by @smotus.bsky.social and rates of change and derivatives by @qjurecic.bsky.social cial, so I can’t help myself but to tie them together. Time for a thread!
1/n
1/n
May 29, 2024 at 4:55 AM
My BlueSky timeline nicely paired these posts on solar panel installation by @smotus.bsky.social and rates of change and derivatives by @qjurecic.bsky.social cial, so I can’t help myself but to tie them together. Time for a thread!
1/n
1/n
When the sign didn't work, someone opted for a move from John Snow's playbook and just removed the handle...
April 11, 2024 at 3:19 PM
When the sign didn't work, someone opted for a move from John Snow's playbook and just removed the handle...
See also one of my favorite figures in Holbrook & Schindler, 1989, "Some Exploratory Findings on the Development of Musical Tastes," JCR academic.oup.com/jcr/article-...
March 16, 2024 at 7:31 PM
See also one of my favorite figures in Holbrook & Schindler, 1989, "Some Exploratory Findings on the Development of Musical Tastes," JCR academic.oup.com/jcr/article-...