Stephen Pettigrew
spettigrew.bsky.social
Stephen Pettigrew
@spettigrew.bsky.social
Data scientist and political scientist at UPenn. Senior Elections Analyst for NBC News Decision Desk. PhD
Ballot counts in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee all lagged considerably behind their states
November 20, 2024 at 12:51 PM
The number of votes (relative to 2020) from Republican countries far out-paced the number in Democratic counties
November 20, 2024 at 12:50 PM
In addition to having some of the highest error rates of any of the 4 jurisdictions in 2020 and 2022, SF's ballot rejection rates in RCV races were significantly higher than those in every other category of non-RCV races.
December 20, 2023 at 2:41 PM
These errors have a huge impact on how many ballots get thrown out during tabulation. In every jurisdiction and election date we analyzed, the ballot rejection rate is significantly higher in RCV races than non-RCV ones. On average, the RCV rejection rates are 10 times higher.
December 20, 2023 at 2:41 PM
We also find that rates of over-voting, which can occur on ranked and non-ranked offices, are significantly higher in ranked choice races than non-ranked choice ones *that appear on the same ballot*
December 20, 2023 at 2:41 PM
We find that in a typical ranked-choice race, about 5% of marked ballots contain at least one type of ballot marking error. There is variation between jurisdictions--AK's error rate is about 2%, while the other 3 jurisdictions hover around 6 or 7%. Each dot represents an RCV race
December 20, 2023 at 2:41 PM
"Over-ranking" is when a voter selects the same candidate for multiple rankings. In the example above, whether the voter's preference for Murkowski is counted depends on the jurisdiction's RCV law.
December 20, 2023 at 2:41 PM
"Skipping" occurs when a voter leaves a ranking blank but fills in subsequent rankings. The example here shows a "front skip"--no first-choice preference expressed, as well as an "interior skip"--no choice for ranking 3.
December 20, 2023 at 2:41 PM
"Overvotes" occur when a voter selects multiple candidates for the same ranking. Overvotes are the biggest contributor to rejected ballots. The example here is a real ballot cast in the Nov '22 AK House race. The vote was uncounted because of an overvote for ranking 1.
December 20, 2023 at 2:41 PM