Anyway, here's a longer version of this argument ... truthandcons.substack.com/p/are-democr...

I'd argue Republicans have underperformed so badly in swing states because they nominate extremist candidates, don't moderate their policies, and fail to appeal to swing voters.

I'd argue Democrats have done this by doing precisely what pundits claim they need to do to win back the Senate -- moderating their policies, running to the center on hot-button GOP-dominant issues like immigration

The bottom line here is that in the most narrowly divided states in the country, Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates dominate and have been far more effective at both maintaining their political base but also winning over moderate/centrist/and split ticket voters.

b) The dropoff in male voters when Democrats nominate a female presidential candidate. Since the divides are so narrow in swing states, that leakage is magnified in ways that wouldn’t be the case in blue or red states.

Indeed, one of my favorite data points from the 2024 election is that Harris got more votes than Democratic Senate candidates in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania ... and Democratic Senate candidates still won in MI and NV

Trump’s success in these states is IMHO due to two sui generis factors a) Trump-only voters who support the president but don’t feel the same affinity for other Republicans ...

The obvious rejoinder to this argument is that Trump has won 14 of 21 elections in swing states over the last three presidential elections.

In governor’s races, the Democrats are just as dominant: they hold five of the seven governor’s mansions. Even when it comes to state attorneys general, Democrats hold a dominant position. In 5 of the seven swing states, Democrats hold that job.

Most notably, Democrats won four of the five Senate races in swing states in the 2024 election, even as Trump won all seven swing states. There are ten Democratic senators in states that Trump won in 2024. There is one Republican senator in a state that Harris won in 2024.

Since 2016, Democrats have won every Senate race in Nevada, Michigan, and all 4 Senate races in Arizona. Since 2020, they’ve won 3 separate Senate races in Georgia. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the two parties have gone 2-2, and Republicans have run the table in North Carolina.

And the Democratic track record in swing states is remarkably solid. In the seven swing states, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, Democrats control 10 of 14 Senate seats (70 percent).

Swing states offer a test case for how successful the two parties are in places where a) they aren't swimming against the tide of partisanship & b) there is a closely divided electorate. Also, it tells us how effective the two parties are at winning over the political center