Smartguy725
smartguy725.bsky.social
Smartguy725
@smartguy725.bsky.social
History and politic nerd. Like/reposts are not endorsements. he/him
U.S. Senate:
🔵CHAMBER: Safe R -> Lean R
🔵IA: Safe R -> Likely R
🔵ME: Tilt R -> Tilt D
🔴MI: Lean D -> Tilt D
🔴MN: Safe D -> Likely D
🔵NE: Solid R -> Likely R
🔴NH: Likely D -> Lean D
🔵NC: Tilt D -> Lean D
🔵OH-Special: Safe R -> Lean R
🔵TX: Safe R -> Likely R
🔵VA: Safe D -> Solid D
October 31, 2025 at 10:41 PM
🔴TX-09: Solid D -> Solid R
🔴TX-28: Lean D -> Tilt R
🔴TX-32: Solid D -> Solid R
🔴TX-34: Lean D -> Lean R
🔴TX-35: Solid D -> Safe R
🔵VA-01: Safe R -> Likely R
🔵VA-02: Lean R -> Lean D
🔵VA-10: Lean D -> Likely D
🔴WA-03: Likely D -> Lean D
🔵WI-03: Lean R -> Tilt D
🔵WI-08: Solid R -> Safe R

(cont'd)
October 31, 2025 at 10:41 PM
🔴OH-01: Safe D -> Tilt D
🔴OH-09: Lean D -> Lean R
🔵OK-05: Solid R -> Safe R
🔵OR-04: Likely D -> Safe D
🔵OR-06: Likely D -> Safe D
🔵PA-01: Likely R -> Lean R
🔵PA-07: Lean R -> Tilt D
🔵PA-10: Lean R -> Tilt D
🔵PA-12: Safe D -> Solid D
🔵SC-01: Solid R -> Safe R

(cont'd)
October 31, 2025 at 10:41 PM
🔴MO-02: Likely R -> Safe R
🔴MO-05: Solid D -> Solid R
🔵NE-01: Solid R -> Safe R
🔵NE-02: Tilt D -> Lean D
🔴NH-01: Likely D -> Lean D
🔵NJ-07: Likely R -> Lean R
🔴NJ-09: Likely D -> Lean D
🔴NM-02: Likely D -> Lean D
🔵NY-17: Lean R -> Tilt R
🔴NC-01: Lean D -> Likely R
🔵NC-03: Solid R -> Safe R

(cont'd)
October 31, 2025 at 10:41 PM
🔵IA-01: Tilt R -> Tilt D
🔵IA-02: Safe R -> Likely R
🔵IA-03: Lean R -> Tilt D
🔵KY-06: Solid R -> Likely R
🔴ME-02: Lean D -> Tilt D
🔵MD-06: Lean D -> Likely D
🔵MI-04: Safe R -> Likely R
🔵MI-07: Lean R -> Tilt D
🔵MI-10: Likely R -> Lean R
🔴MN-02: Solid D -> Likely D

(cont'd)
October 31, 2025 at 10:41 PM
U.S. House:
🔵CHAMBER: Tilt R -> Tilt D
🔵AL-02: Likely D -> Safe D
🔵AZ-01: Tilt R -> Tilt D
🔵AZ-04: Likely D -> Safe D
🔵AZ-06: Tilt R -> Tilt D
🔵CA-13: Tilt D -> Lean D
🔵CA-49: Lean D -> Likely D
🔵CO-05: Safe R -> Likely R
🔵CO-08: Tilt R -> Tilt D
🔵FL-14: Safe D -> Solid D

(cont'd)
October 31, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Governorships:
🔵FL: Solid R -> Safe R
🔵IA: Safe R -> Likely R
🔴ME: Safe D -> Likely D
🔴MI: Lean D -> Tilt D
🔵NV: Likely R -> Lean R
🔴NY: Safe D -> Likely D
🔵OH: Safe R -> Lean R
🔵PA: Likely D -> Safe D
🔵TX: Safe R -> Likely R
🔵VA: Likely D -> Safe D
🔴WI: Lean D -> Tilt D

(cont'd)
October 31, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Changes from December 2024 (and the direction the races moved) below:
October 31, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Rating Changes:
Governorships:
NV: Likely R -> Lean R
NJ: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Likely D -> Safe D

U.S. House:
CA-13: Tilt D -> Lean D
NY-17: Lean R -> Tilt R
OK-05: Solid R -> Safe R
VA-02: Tilt D -> Lean D
WI-03: Tilt R -> Tilt D

no Senate rating changes
August 1, 2025 at 10:31 PM
U.S. Senate
*CHAMBER*: Safe R -> Likely R
ME: Lean R -> Tilt R
July 1, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Rating Changes:
Governorships:
MI: Lean D -> Tilt D
NY: Safe D -> Likely D

U.S. House:
KY-06: Safe R -> Likely R
MI-04: Safe R -> Likely R
MI-07: Tilt R -> Tilt D
MN-02: Safe D -> Likely D
PA-10: Tilt R -> Tilt D
TX-34: Lean D -> Tilt D

(cont'd)
July 1, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Rating Changes:
Governorships:
IA: Safe R -> Likely R
VA: Likely D -> Safe D

U.S. Senate:
ME: Tilt R -> Lean R
TX: Safe R -> Likely R
*CHAMBER*: Likely R -> Safe R

U.S. House:
IA-01: Tilt R -> Tilt D
IA-03: Tilt R -> Tilt D
ME-02: Tilt D -> Lean D
May 31, 2025 at 3:03 AM
U.S. Senate:
GA: Tilt D -> Lean D
IA: Safe R -> Likely R
ME: Tilt D -> Tilt R
NE: Solid R -> Safe R

Governorships:
FL: Solid R -> Safe R
May 1, 2025 at 12:41 AM
Rating Changes
U.S. House:
ME-02: Lean D -> Tilt D
MI-10: Likely R -> Lean R
MN-02: Solid D -> Safe D
NE-02: Tilt D -> Lean D
NH-01: Likely D -> Lean D
NY-17: Tilt R -> Lean R
VA-01: Safe R -> Likely R
CHAMBER: Tilt D -> Lean D

(cont'd)
May 1, 2025 at 12:41 AM
Rating Changes
U.S. House:
CA-49: Lean D -> Likely D
IA-03: Lean R -> Tilt R
MD-06: Lean D -> Likely D
MI-07: Lean R -> Tilt R
NM-02: Likely D -> Lean D
PA-07: Tilt R -> Tilt D
VA-10: Lean D -> Likely D

U.S. Senate:
MN: Likely D -> Lean D
NH: Likely D -> Lean D

Governorships
OH: Safe R -> Likely R
April 1, 2025 at 12:55 AM
U.S. Senate:
GA: Lean D -> Tilt D
ME: Tilt R -> Tilt D
MI: Lean D -> Tilt D
MN: Safe D -> Likely D
CHAMBER: Safe R -> Likely R

Governorships:
AK: Safe R -> Likely R
TX: Safe R -> Likely R
March 2, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Rating Changes
U.S. House:
AZ-06: Tilt R -> Tilt D
CO-08: Tilt R -> Tilt D
KY-06: Solid R -> Safe R
NY-17: Lean R -> Tilt R
TX-28: Lean D -> Tilt D
VA-02: Tilt R -> Tilt D
WI-03: Lean R -> Tilt R
CHAMBER: Tilt R -> Tilt D
March 2, 2025 at 2:37 AM