Sam Lair
@slair.bsky.social
Research Associate at CNS | Fellow at FPRI | MIIS NPTS '24 | RTs/views my own etc. Also @sam_lair on Twitter
I wrote about Iran's missile failure rates during True Promise II
Folks get caught up in the 50% failure rate figure from TP I and assume similar numbers are true for TP II and the 12 Day War. But, official statements and video evidence suggest its the failure rate is only 10%!
Link below:
Folks get caught up in the 50% failure rate figure from TP I and assume similar numbers are true for TP II and the 12 Day War. But, official statements and video evidence suggest its the failure rate is only 10%!
Link below:
August 22, 2025 at 11:35 PM
I wrote about Iran's missile failure rates during True Promise II
Folks get caught up in the 50% failure rate figure from TP I and assume similar numbers are true for TP II and the 12 Day War. But, official statements and video evidence suggest its the failure rate is only 10%!
Link below:
Folks get caught up in the 50% failure rate figure from TP I and assume similar numbers are true for TP II and the 12 Day War. But, official statements and video evidence suggest its the failure rate is only 10%!
Link below:
I've worked up an assessment of U.S. and Israeli missile defense interceptor expenditures since June 13
Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article
Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article
June 25, 2025 at 12:42 AM
I've worked up an assessment of U.S. and Israeli missile defense interceptor expenditures since June 13
Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article
Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article
Much of the part of the targeted area is still standing, and there is another production line to the northeast that wasn't hit.
I could be wrong, but my sense is if the Israelis want to put this site out of action for a long time, they would have to hit it again
I could be wrong, but my sense is if the Israelis want to put this site out of action for a long time, they would have to hit it again
June 23, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Much of the part of the targeted area is still standing, and there is another production line to the northeast that wasn't hit.
I could be wrong, but my sense is if the Israelis want to put this site out of action for a long time, they would have to hit it again
I could be wrong, but my sense is if the Israelis want to put this site out of action for a long time, they would have to hit it again
The Israelis finally hit the solid propellant production plant at Shahroud, but not as extensively as I would have expected
A large casting building was destroyed, along with two high-bay buildings in one of the new solid propellant lines
Thanks as always to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
A large casting building was destroyed, along with two high-bay buildings in one of the new solid propellant lines
Thanks as always to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
June 23, 2025 at 8:47 PM
The Israelis finally hit the solid propellant production plant at Shahroud, but not as extensively as I would have expected
A large casting building was destroyed, along with two high-bay buildings in one of the new solid propellant lines
Thanks as always to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
A large casting building was destroyed, along with two high-bay buildings in one of the new solid propellant lines
Thanks as always to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
We saw something similar at Imam Ali near Khorramabad before the October 2024 strike as well.
June 22, 2025 at 8:36 PM
We saw something similar at Imam Ali near Khorramabad before the October 2024 strike as well.
Controlled burns to remove dead vegetation may be a part of routine upkeep at Iranian missile bases to prevent exactly this from happening. There was a big fire at Kermanshah last year which might have been for that reason, but also could have been an accident
June 22, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Controlled burns to remove dead vegetation may be a part of routine upkeep at Iranian missile bases to prevent exactly this from happening. There was a big fire at Kermanshah last year which might have been for that reason, but also could have been an accident
Fires started by Iranian missile launches are common! The same thing happened at this very base during the strikes in October
June 22, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Fires started by Iranian missile launches are common! The same thing happened at this very base during the strikes in October
There was a big fire at this base a few days ago, but that was more likely started by missile launches during a retaliatory strike than from Israeli attacks, as the base was undamaged until June 21
June 22, 2025 at 8:36 PM
There was a big fire at this base a few days ago, but that was more likely started by missile launches during a retaliatory strike than from Israeli attacks, as the base was undamaged until June 21
Satellite imagery from our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social confirms the Israelis hit one of the missile bases near Shiraz the night of June 20-21.
Support buildings and a missile checkout building were destroyed and started a fire. Possible damage to UGF entrances but its not clear. A🧵
Support buildings and a missile checkout building were destroyed and started a fire. Possible damage to UGF entrances but its not clear. A🧵
June 22, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Satellite imagery from our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social confirms the Israelis hit one of the missile bases near Shiraz the night of June 20-21.
Support buildings and a missile checkout building were destroyed and started a fire. Possible damage to UGF entrances but its not clear. A🧵
Support buildings and a missile checkout building were destroyed and started a fire. Possible damage to UGF entrances but its not clear. A🧵
Imagery of Natanz from this morning courtesy of Airbus shows the crater left by Massive Ordinance Penetrators (MOPs) over the underground enrichment halls
While there was discussion over whether the centrifuges had been damaged by the Israeli strikes, they're almost certainly damaged now.
While there was discussion over whether the centrifuges had been damaged by the Israeli strikes, they're almost certainly damaged now.
June 22, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Imagery of Natanz from this morning courtesy of Airbus shows the crater left by Massive Ordinance Penetrators (MOPs) over the underground enrichment halls
While there was discussion over whether the centrifuges had been damaged by the Israeli strikes, they're almost certainly damaged now.
While there was discussion over whether the centrifuges had been damaged by the Israeli strikes, they're almost certainly damaged now.
New imagery of Isfahan from this morning courtesy of Airbus shows the damage from U.S. Tomahawk strikes
The strike focused on the uranium conversion plant, hitting buildings undamaged or partially damaged by past Israeli strikes
The strike focused on the uranium conversion plant, hitting buildings undamaged or partially damaged by past Israeli strikes
June 22, 2025 at 6:56 PM
New imagery of Isfahan from this morning courtesy of Airbus shows the damage from U.S. Tomahawk strikes
The strike focused on the uranium conversion plant, hitting buildings undamaged or partially damaged by past Israeli strikes
The strike focused on the uranium conversion plant, hitting buildings undamaged or partially damaged by past Israeli strikes
Lots of the damage to the fuel plate/zirconium plant on the north side was done the night of June 20-21 by the Israelis.
Our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social captured the damage in their daily 3m
Our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social captured the damage in their daily 3m
June 22, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Lots of the damage to the fuel plate/zirconium plant on the north side was done the night of June 20-21 by the Israelis.
Our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social captured the damage in their daily 3m
Our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social captured the damage in their daily 3m
Similarly, the missile checkout building at the Isfahan south base was destroyed. UGF entrances were damaged, along with many support buildings
Surprising the UGF entrances didn't seem to have been hit at the north base, but we will have to wait for high-res stuff to be sure
Surprising the UGF entrances didn't seem to have been hit at the north base, but we will have to wait for high-res stuff to be sure
June 18, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Similarly, the missile checkout building at the Isfahan south base was destroyed. UGF entrances were damaged, along with many support buildings
Surprising the UGF entrances didn't seem to have been hit at the north base, but we will have to wait for high-res stuff to be sure
Surprising the UGF entrances didn't seem to have been hit at the north base, but we will have to wait for high-res stuff to be sure
We can now see the damage from Israeli strikes on the missile bases in Isfahan thanks to the daily 3m images from our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
All the missile checkout buildings were destroyed at the Isfahan north base, likely hampering Iran's ability to generate strikes from there
All the missile checkout buildings were destroyed at the Isfahan north base, likely hampering Iran's ability to generate strikes from there
June 18, 2025 at 10:55 PM
We can now see the damage from Israeli strikes on the missile bases in Isfahan thanks to the daily 3m images from our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
All the missile checkout buildings were destroyed at the Isfahan north base, likely hampering Iran's ability to generate strikes from there
All the missile checkout buildings were destroyed at the Isfahan north base, likely hampering Iran's ability to generate strikes from there
The admin/vehicle area was also attacked, and a fire broke out. Looks like a garage was destroyed, along with some other buildings.
June 16, 2025 at 11:08 PM
The admin/vehicle area was also attacked, and a fire broke out. Looks like a garage was destroyed, along with some other buildings.
Imagery of the Tabriz North missile base from today courtesy of our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social shows the extent of the damage from the Israeli strikes
Two UGF entrances were damaged or sealed while another two remained open. Many missile checkout and support buildings were destroyed
Two UGF entrances were damaged or sealed while another two remained open. Many missile checkout and support buildings were destroyed
June 16, 2025 at 11:08 PM
Imagery of the Tabriz North missile base from today courtesy of our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social shows the extent of the damage from the Israeli strikes
Two UGF entrances were damaged or sealed while another two remained open. Many missile checkout and support buildings were destroyed
Two UGF entrances were damaged or sealed while another two remained open. Many missile checkout and support buildings were destroyed
We can see damage to many buildings at the Uranium Conversion Facility and some smoke from fires, but no obvious damage to the FPEP in the imagery so far.
Thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social for the images
Thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social for the images
June 14, 2025 at 7:15 PM
We can see damage to many buildings at the Uranium Conversion Facility and some smoke from fires, but no obvious damage to the FPEP in the imagery so far.
Thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social for the images
Thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social for the images
Got the first look at the Tabriz North missile base, thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
Definitely some damage visible in the 3m, maybe some near the tunnel entrances as well
Definitely some damage visible in the 3m, maybe some near the tunnel entrances as well
June 13, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Got the first look at the Tabriz North missile base, thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
Definitely some damage visible in the 3m, maybe some near the tunnel entrances as well
Definitely some damage visible in the 3m, maybe some near the tunnel entrances as well
We have a look at the damage at Kermanshah missile base thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
June 13, 2025 at 6:08 PM
We have a look at the damage at Kermanshah missile base thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
The Fordow image was taken before the recent round of reported strikes on the plant, so this may already be out of date. It shows no damage to the entrances or aboveground support infrastructure
June 13, 2025 at 4:57 PM
The Fordow image was taken before the recent round of reported strikes on the plant, so this may already be out of date. It shows no damage to the entrances or aboveground support infrastructure
Satellite images of Natanz and Fordow this morning from
Airbus that @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I looked at
All the damage to Natanz is at the original complex. Electrical infrastructure was targeted, along with the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant. The UGF entrances were not damaged
Airbus that @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I looked at
All the damage to Natanz is at the original complex. Electrical infrastructure was targeted, along with the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant. The UGF entrances were not damaged
June 13, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Satellite images of Natanz and Fordow this morning from
Airbus that @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I looked at
All the damage to Natanz is at the original complex. Electrical infrastructure was targeted, along with the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant. The UGF entrances were not damaged
Airbus that @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I looked at
All the damage to Natanz is at the original complex. Electrical infrastructure was targeted, along with the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant. The UGF entrances were not damaged
Fires at Natanz Uranium Enrichment Plant based on video geolocated to the road outside the facility: 33.738 N°, 51.737 E°
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I have been talking about the vulnerability of air defenses there a lot the past few weeks
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I have been talking about the vulnerability of air defenses there a lot the past few weeks
June 13, 2025 at 1:45 AM
Fires at Natanz Uranium Enrichment Plant based on video geolocated to the road outside the facility: 33.738 N°, 51.737 E°
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I have been talking about the vulnerability of air defenses there a lot the past few weeks
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I have been talking about the vulnerability of air defenses there a lot the past few weeks
Timelapse of the past year at the underground facility near Natanz which may be the third enrichment facility the Iranians announced earlier today.
Growing spoil piles suggesting continued excavation and lots of work on the perimeter.
Thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
Growing spoil piles suggesting continued excavation and lots of work on the perimeter.
Thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
June 12, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Timelapse of the past year at the underground facility near Natanz which may be the third enrichment facility the Iranians announced earlier today.
Growing spoil piles suggesting continued excavation and lots of work on the perimeter.
Thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
Growing spoil piles suggesting continued excavation and lots of work on the perimeter.
Thanks to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social
I remember when summits used to mean something, for better or worse
February 12, 2025 at 9:39 PM
I remember when summits used to mean something, for better or worse