Steve Koczela
@skoczela.bsky.social
President of The MassINC Polling Group. Cohost of The Horse Race podcast. All things #mapoli. Iraq veteran. Boston, MA.
I have a series of methodological questions but that will not stop me from posting this. financebuzz.com/popular-chri...
December 3, 2025 at 1:27 PM
I have a series of methodological questions but that will not stop me from posting this. financebuzz.com/popular-chri...
Writing in this morning's @massterlist.com, Jon Keller points to Trump as driving large gender gaps in new Mass. polling. This chart (which I made in 2014) shows they're older than that.
Original article: commonwealthbeacon.org/politics/bro...
and Keller: massterlist.com/2025/12/01/t...
Original article: commonwealthbeacon.org/politics/bro...
and Keller: massterlist.com/2025/12/01/t...
December 1, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Writing in this morning's @massterlist.com, Jon Keller points to Trump as driving large gender gaps in new Mass. polling. This chart (which I made in 2014) shows they're older than that.
Original article: commonwealthbeacon.org/politics/bro...
and Keller: massterlist.com/2025/12/01/t...
Original article: commonwealthbeacon.org/politics/bro...
and Keller: massterlist.com/2025/12/01/t...
Huge shout out to the good folks at the City of Melrose for posting unofficial election results so quickly! Overrides pass. www.cityofmelrose.org/CivicAlerts....
November 5, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Huge shout out to the good folks at the City of Melrose for posting unofficial election results so quickly! Overrides pass. www.cityofmelrose.org/CivicAlerts....
Mass loves our Sour Patch Kids. www.instacart.com/company/data...
October 27, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Mass loves our Sour Patch Kids. www.instacart.com/company/data...
Yes, we're still doing the puns. #MASen soundcloud.com/user-72751714
October 22, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Yes, we're still doing the puns. #MASen soundcloud.com/user-72751714
It’s called “Boardwalk.”
October 6, 2025 at 11:34 AM
It’s called “Boardwalk.”
Markey reelect question is framed around age and comes before the actual horserace questions which is a little dubious ordering. With this ordering, Markey down by 8 to Moulton and 2 to Pressley among Dems. Just 36% say he should run again. assets.nationbuilder.com/fiscalallian...
October 1, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Markey reelect question is framed around age and comes before the actual horserace questions which is a little dubious ordering. With this ordering, Markey down by 8 to Moulton and 2 to Pressley among Dems. Just 36% say he should run again. assets.nationbuilder.com/fiscalallian...
Partisan politics in the VA newsletter I just got. “Unfortunately, Democrats are blocking this Continuing Resolution in the U.S. Senate due to unrelated policy demands.”
October 1, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Partisan politics in the VA newsletter I just got. “Unfortunately, Democrats are blocking this Continuing Resolution in the U.S. Senate due to unrelated policy demands.”
It's a ... I mean ... what?
September 18, 2025 at 1:06 PM
It's a ... I mean ... what?
Boston mayoral prelim turnout has varied quite significantly depending on the level of competition.
September 9, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Boston mayoral prelim turnout has varied quite significantly depending on the level of competition.
I feel like a little positive feedback wouldn't hurt but here we are. @lichess.org
September 8, 2025 at 7:26 AM
I feel like a little positive feedback wouldn't hurt but here we are. @lichess.org
New Emerson poll finds Wu up 50 pts on Kraft. Even wider lead than Globe’s 30 a few weeks back. massterlist.beehiiv.com/p/healey-vac...
September 5, 2025 at 11:36 AM
New Emerson poll finds Wu up 50 pts on Kraft. Even wider lead than Globe’s 30 a few weeks back. massterlist.beehiiv.com/p/healey-vac...
- Me: I think I played a solid positional game where I slowly built up an advantage through solid moves.
- @lichess.org:
- @lichess.org:
September 2, 2025 at 11:46 AM
- Me: I think I played a solid positional game where I slowly built up an advantage through solid moves.
- @lichess.org:
- @lichess.org:
I'm not the expert on how other states run their AVR systems. But it is notable in the course of the discussion that the states with AVR mostly have D reg. advantages. Of course the Dem brand is ALSO in trouble, but at least some of the registration change is mechanical, not persuasion.
August 25, 2025 at 5:06 AM
I'm not the expert on how other states run their AVR systems. But it is notable in the course of the discussion that the states with AVR mostly have D reg. advantages. Of course the Dem brand is ALSO in trouble, but at least some of the registration change is mechanical, not persuasion.
And taking it the final step, if you have a system which used to have 3 to 1 reg. advantage for Dems and all but cancel voter reg., it will still make it look like Dems are in peril as you want their advantage slip from 3-1 closer and closer to 0-0. commonwealthbeacon.org/by-the-numbe...
August 25, 2025 at 5:02 AM
And taking it the final step, if you have a system which used to have 3 to 1 reg. advantage for Dems and all but cancel voter reg., it will still make it look like Dems are in peril as you want their advantage slip from 3-1 closer and closer to 0-0. commonwealthbeacon.org/by-the-numbe...
But it's because with the AVR system in MA, you CANNOT register with a party at the point at the point you are added to the voter rolls at the RMV. There is also no opt out. Here is the form. So new registrants all end up in the big pile of "unenrolled" voters. www.mass.gov/doc/learners...
August 25, 2025 at 4:58 AM
But it's because with the AVR system in MA, you CANNOT register with a party at the point at the point you are added to the voter rolls at the RMV. There is also no opt out. Here is the form. So new registrants all end up in the big pile of "unenrolled" voters. www.mass.gov/doc/learners...
By "new", I mean those with recent registration dates who are under 29. The data I have access to doesn't track those updating their reg., so for an older voter, I can't tell if they are just moving or registering. Anyhow, it makes the big blue down arrow in the NYT graphic look super scary.
August 25, 2025 at 4:52 AM
By "new", I mean those with recent registration dates who are under 29. The data I have access to doesn't track those updating their reg., so for an older voter, I can't tell if they are just moving or registering. Anyhow, it makes the big blue down arrow in the NYT graphic look super scary.
Apropos of absolutely nothing, I hit 3000 on @chess.com puzzles today.
July 1, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Apropos of absolutely nothing, I hit 3000 on @chess.com puzzles today.
This is nothing like Iraq or Afghanistan from a public opinion standpoint. In both cases, large majorities supported military action. This time, large majorities oppose it. Chart from the great @gelliottmorris.com. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-amer...
June 22, 2025 at 2:35 AM
This is nothing like Iraq or Afghanistan from a public opinion standpoint. In both cases, large majorities supported military action. This time, large majorities oppose it. Chart from the great @gelliottmorris.com. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-amer...
After extensive research and a thorough peer review process I am ready to publish the results of my study.
June 18, 2025 at 3:07 PM
After extensive research and a thorough peer review process I am ready to publish the results of my study.
Friends doing a renovation came across this fantastic bit from the @bostonglobe.com in October, 1897 offering $1,000 for the best prediction of state elections.
June 10, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Friends doing a renovation came across this fantastic bit from the @bostonglobe.com in October, 1897 offering $1,000 for the best prediction of state elections.
