Combined with CDEM's large sample in 2019 and 2021, this will permit analysis of the relationship between Canadians' working and political lives! For example, we found slight evidence that respondents in occupations facing future surpluses (e.g. lower wages and layoffs) tended to vote for the left.

I guess I'm wondering whether committee votes on the budget estimates are confidence votes. If so, then the Bloc has a stronger bargaining position than just their standings in the House would provide them.

Estimates votes and the vote of the Supply bill at committee stage are confidence votes no? But the Liberals are clearly in the minority on all committees. Trying to think through the dynamics here. #cdnpoli

But its also unconstitutional in thst it is the province criminalizing a behavior and so ultra vires. Amazing how we can go back to the future so often.

Wait but isn’t that a 4) a resignation? Guess it could be a combo of 3 and 4. The cabinet threatens to invoke the removal thingy and then he quits rather than, you know, be fired lol

Tragically Hip at a small club in Berlin at the height of their popularity in Canada. IYKYK.

What are the options here? 1) assassination? 2) Impeachment or 3) the cabinet removal thingy you have there? Have I got that right? Am I wrong I saying 1 and 3 are the most likely?

COVID aside, it is almost certainly a drop in births. The long-term drop in fertility is well-known but the sudden spike in house prices has been catastrophic and acute for that.

Also: those net birth numbers .....😐

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Based on this research, don't expect that to change any time soon. But feel free to drop by the atrium of 300 Adelaide Street East at @cpsa-acsp.bsky.social

Long story, there really isn't strong evidence to say that this significant event in Ontario's post-secondary landscape caused any electoral problems for the PC party. That makes a lot of sense given the overall continuity in policy with the PCs taking a very stingy approach 8. #onpoli

And we added a supplemental test, comparing the change in vote share *within* the Sudbury district by distance from Laurentian, thinking that maybe in polling divisions *closest* to the university, you might see a drop in support, but, no, there's no relationship there. 7. #onpoli

And if you consider Laurentian's effects as applying primarily to francophone districts in Northern Ontario, rather than affecting the two most geographically proximate, then again, you actually get an insignificant *larger* difference. 6. #onpoli

When you compare restrict the difference to just Northern Ontario ridings, then you do get a decrease, meaning increase in Sudbury/Nickel Belt was smaller than the increase in other Northern Ontario ridings, but it wasn't large enough to say it was statistically significant. #onpoli

We used a Differences-in-Differences strategy to compare the pre- and post-treatment increase in the two treated cases with all other districts in Northern Ontario (column 1). Oddly, the increase was *larger* in Sudbury and Nickel Belt than in other districts. 5.

But crucially, the increase in Sudbury and Nickel Belt, the two electoral districts that were most affected by the crisis was *lower* than the increases in Northern Ontario. Is this lower increase large enough not to have occurred by chance alone? Short answer, no. 4 #onpoli

First, some top-line results comparing PC vote share in Southern and Northern Ontario in 2018 and 2022. In southern Ontario, PC vote share was flat between the two elections. In Northern Ontario, however, PC vote share increased *a lot*, which is an interesting story in its own right. 3. #onpoli