yes, this is spend as % of GDP since 1970s. With cuts (pre U-turn) would be falling over this parliament. Govt/IFS etc only focus where spend rising & miss that past data needs revising up for consistency with UC. Also some of rise in incap/PIP reflects more eligible pple claiming - a good thing!

Here's caseload as % of pop by client group, with revision to past inactive to partly adjust for UC reporting changes. Total share flat (lowest for over 20 yrs), inactive rising but still affected by UC reporting. Other takes misleading as ignore breaks entirely &/or only report bits going up

Spending on GB working age benefits since the 1970s, as a share of public spending & GDP