Simone Cremaschi
@simonecremaschi.bsky.social
Political scientist researching immigration, inequality, and culture.
🌐 simonecremaschi.com
🌐 simonecremaschi.com
Now out @apsrjournal.bsky.social with page numbers! 🫒
We advance a new argument on how economic crises fuel support for far-right parties in left-behind places by tapping into long-standing community narratives
shorturl.at/bA55v
@catherinedevries.bsky.social
We advance a new argument on how economic crises fuel support for far-right parties in left-behind places by tapping into long-standing community narratives
shorturl.at/bA55v
@catherinedevries.bsky.social
November 17, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Now out @apsrjournal.bsky.social with page numbers! 🫒
We advance a new argument on how economic crises fuel support for far-right parties in left-behind places by tapping into long-standing community narratives
shorturl.at/bA55v
@catherinedevries.bsky.social
We advance a new argument on how economic crises fuel support for far-right parties in left-behind places by tapping into long-standing community narratives
shorturl.at/bA55v
@catherinedevries.bsky.social
A brilliant PhD defense by @bogatyrev.bsky.social today: congrats Dr. Bogatyrev! 🥳👏
June 17, 2025 at 10:41 AM
A brilliant PhD defense by @bogatyrev.bsky.social today: congrats Dr. Bogatyrev! 🥳👏
Thrilled to announce that our @cpsjournal.bsky.social paper with Juan Masullo on the political legacies of Italy’s antifascist resistance won the NEPS Medal 2025 for Best Publication in Peace Science! 🥳
June 16, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Thrilled to announce that our @cpsjournal.bsky.social paper with Juan Masullo on the political legacies of Italy’s antifascist resistance won the NEPS Medal 2025 for Best Publication in Peace Science! 🥳
Next, we focus on two similarly affected municipalities that were politically aligned with unaffected ones before the outbreak and shared key characteristics.
After the shock, one maintained its voting pattern (negative case), while the other shifted support to far-right parties (positive case)
After the shock, one maintained its voting pattern (negative case), while the other shifted support to far-right parties (positive case)
January 29, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Next, we focus on two similarly affected municipalities that were politically aligned with unaffected ones before the outbreak and shared key characteristics.
After the shock, one maintained its voting pattern (negative case), while the other shifted support to far-right parties (positive case)
After the shock, one maintained its voting pattern (negative case), while the other shifted support to far-right parties (positive case)
We also demonstrate that excess far-right support was more pronounced in communities that already lacked access to local public services
January 29, 2025 at 11:32 AM
We also demonstrate that excess far-right support was more pronounced in communities that already lacked access to local public services
We examine additional municipal level data and demonstrate that the outbreak produced significant economic and socio-cultural hardship. It reduced household income, increased youth emigration and created social and psychological distress likely increasing suicides
January 29, 2025 at 11:32 AM
We examine additional municipal level data and demonstrate that the outbreak produced significant economic and socio-cultural hardship. It reduced household income, increased youth emigration and created social and psychological distress likely increasing suicides
We examine municipal-level vote shares in national elections and identify a 2.2-percentage-point differential vote share for far-right parties in affected municipalities
January 29, 2025 at 11:32 AM
We examine municipal-level vote shares in national elections and identify a 2.2-percentage-point differential vote share for far-right parties in affected municipalities
We exploit the geographic variation and timing of the Xylella outbreak to study its political consequences using a Difference-in-Differences approach 📈
January 29, 2025 at 11:32 AM
We exploit the geographic variation and timing of the Xylella outbreak to study its political consequences using a Difference-in-Differences approach 📈
We study the arrival of Xylella in Italy, a bacteria 🦠 that exterminated about 6.5 million olive trees 🫒 in the South of Puglia since 2013
January 29, 2025 at 11:32 AM
We study the arrival of Xylella in Italy, a bacteria 🦠 that exterminated about 6.5 million olive trees 🫒 in the South of Puglia since 2013
Throughout history, plant disease epidemics have caused food shortages and economic upheavals, with profound political consequences
Think of the Irish Potato Famine (1845), triggered by Phytophthora infestans, and its far-reaching role in shaping the revolutions of 1848
Think of the Irish Potato Famine (1845), triggered by Phytophthora infestans, and its far-reaching role in shaping the revolutions of 1848
January 29, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Throughout history, plant disease epidemics have caused food shortages and economic upheavals, with profound political consequences
Think of the Irish Potato Famine (1845), triggered by Phytophthora infestans, and its far-reaching role in shaping the revolutions of 1848
Think of the Irish Potato Famine (1845), triggered by Phytophthora infestans, and its far-reaching role in shaping the revolutions of 1848
🚨New paper forthcoming @apsrjournal.bsky.social!🚨
How do economic shocks shape politics?
We study a plant disease epidemic in Italy🌱—finding it fueled far-right support
It’s not just economic loss but how shocks uproot communities and interact with perceptions of state neglect
shorturl.at/ntKyt
How do economic shocks shape politics?
We study a plant disease epidemic in Italy🌱—finding it fueled far-right support
It’s not just economic loss but how shocks uproot communities and interact with perceptions of state neglect
shorturl.at/ntKyt
January 29, 2025 at 11:32 AM
🚨New paper forthcoming @apsrjournal.bsky.social!🚨
How do economic shocks shape politics?
We study a plant disease epidemic in Italy🌱—finding it fueled far-right support
It’s not just economic loss but how shocks uproot communities and interact with perceptions of state neglect
shorturl.at/ntKyt
How do economic shocks shape politics?
We study a plant disease epidemic in Italy🌱—finding it fueled far-right support
It’s not just economic loss but how shocks uproot communities and interact with perceptions of state neglect
shorturl.at/ntKyt
Our results temper the idea that climate-related disasters automatically activate environmental concerns. They also challenge the view that, as seen after the recent Valencia flood, climate change will necessarily damage incumbents. Much depends on political responses.
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
Our results temper the idea that climate-related disasters automatically activate environmental concerns. They also challenge the view that, as seen after the recent Valencia flood, climate change will necessarily damage incumbents. Much depends on political responses.
In our 18-pages appendix, we run additional tests, including Inverse Probability Weighting and Placebo tests to probe our results
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
In our 18-pages appendix, we run additional tests, including Inverse Probability Weighting and Placebo tests to probe our results
We provide evidence supporting this explanation, showing that electoral returns for Lega in damaged municipalities increase with relief spending, and that spending has a positive effect regardless of damage
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
We provide evidence supporting this explanation, showing that electoral returns for Lega in damaged municipalities increase with relief spending, and that spending has a positive effect regardless of damage
Why? Lega held regional incumbency and was particularly effective in claiming credit for disaster relief (see regional president Zaia and vice prime minister Salvini on a joint visit to affected areas)
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
Why? Lega held regional incumbency and was particularly effective in claiming credit for disaster relief (see regional president Zaia and vice prime minister Salvini on a joint visit to affected areas)
However, the storm lead to a positive effect on vote for the far-right Lega party, which holds skeptic positions on climate change
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
However, the storm lead to a positive effect on vote for the far-right Lega party, which holds skeptic positions on climate change
Despite the connection to climate change, the storm had no effect on vote for pro-environment parties (Greens and M5S) in the European elections held right after the storm
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
Despite the connection to climate change, the storm had no effect on vote for pro-environment parties (Greens and M5S) in the European elections held right after the storm
The storm inflicted severe damage on some municipalities, while others nearby were left almost intact. We measure damage using fine-grained satellite and ground data and exploit this variation to estimate the storm's political effects
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
The storm inflicted severe damage on some municipalities, while others nearby were left almost intact. We measure damage using fine-grained satellite and ground data and exploit this variation to estimate the storm's political effects
The storm was immediately linked to climate change, with local celebrities such as mountaineer Reinhold Messner calling for green action in the media
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
The storm was immediately linked to climate change, with local celebrities such as mountaineer Reinhold Messner calling for green action in the media
We study Vaia, a devastating storm that hit the mountainous area of northeastern Italy in 2018
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
We study Vaia, a devastating storm that hit the mountainous area of northeastern Italy in 2018
🚨 New paper 🚨 with @pstanig.bsky.social forthcoming at @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 about the political consequences of climate-related disasters 🌲💦⚠️
Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...
Summary 🧵👇
Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...
Summary 🧵👇
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
🚨 New paper 🚨 with @pstanig.bsky.social forthcoming at @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 about the political consequences of climate-related disasters 🌲💦⚠️
Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...
Summary 🧵👇
Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...
Summary 🧵👇
🚨 Publication Alert 🚨
Our paper about public service deprivation and far right support with @paularettl.bsky.social @marcocappelluti.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social is forthcoming at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! 🎉
👉 Preprint: osf.io/preprints/os...
#polisky
Our paper about public service deprivation and far right support with @paularettl.bsky.social @marcocappelluti.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social is forthcoming at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! 🎉
👉 Preprint: osf.io/preprints/os...
#polisky
November 14, 2024 at 8:08 AM
🚨 Publication Alert 🚨
Our paper about public service deprivation and far right support with @paularettl.bsky.social @marcocappelluti.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social is forthcoming at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! 🎉
👉 Preprint: osf.io/preprints/os...
#polisky
Our paper about public service deprivation and far right support with @paularettl.bsky.social @marcocappelluti.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social is forthcoming at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! 🎉
👉 Preprint: osf.io/preprints/os...
#polisky
Exciting news! 🎉 Our paper Without Roots: The Political Consequences of Collective Economic Shocks, with Nicola Bariletto & Catherine De Vries, is conditionally accepted at the APSR! 👉 osf.io/preprints/os... 🫒🫒🫒 polisky
October 18, 2024 at 4:54 PM
Exciting news! 🎉 Our paper Without Roots: The Political Consequences of Collective Economic Shocks, with Nicola Bariletto & Catherine De Vries, is conditionally accepted at the APSR! 👉 osf.io/preprints/os... 🫒🫒🫒 polisky
Today is the perfect day to share that my article with Juan Masullo "The Political Legacies of Wartime Resistance: How Local Communities in Italy Keep Anti-fascist Sentiments Alive" is forthcoming at @cpsjournal.bsky.social ! A preprint is available at osf.io/ve8w4 polisky
April 25, 2024 at 5:41 PM
Today is the perfect day to share that my article with Juan Masullo "The Political Legacies of Wartime Resistance: How Local Communities in Italy Keep Anti-fascist Sentiments Alive" is forthcoming at @cpsjournal.bsky.social ! A preprint is available at osf.io/ve8w4 polisky
We did fieldwork in 2 similarly affected municipalities that had different political reactions. We evidence that: 1. 🫒🦠 severely affected community life and identity, 2. a narrative of abandonment by elites was pre-existing in the community where ⬆️ in far-right vote was high and not were ⬆️was 0
December 6, 2023 at 2:23 PM
We did fieldwork in 2 similarly affected municipalities that had different political reactions. We evidence that: 1. 🫒🦠 severely affected community life and identity, 2. a narrative of abandonment by elites was pre-existing in the community where ⬆️ in far-right vote was high and not were ⬆️was 0