This pivotal moment requires thoughtful policy responses to secure ASEAN's long-term economic interests while navigating today’s complex trade dynamics.

Full analysis and recommendations: asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

So what can countries in ASEAN do?
1. Strengthen trade tools and coordinate regional responses to import surges
2. Boost competitiveness while diversifying supply chains
3. Actively engage with both dialogue partners and the private sector 7/8

4. The U.S., EU, and others are intensifying scrutiny of Chinese-linked supply chains running through ASEAN. With the new Trump administration, this pressure will likely increase, creating challenges for regional trade. 6/8

3. ASEAN has become a critical offshore manufacturing base for Chinese firms, especially in clean energy (EVs, solar, batteries). This brings investment but also complicated ties to Chinese supply chains. 5/8

2. ASEAN manufacturers are losing ground in global markets to lower-priced Chinese alternatives—making it harder for Southeast Asian companies to expand beyond their home markets. 4/8

Our analysis identifies 4 critical trends every policymaker & business leader should be watching:
1. ASEAN is absorbing more Chinese intermediate and final goods, displacing local industries and contributing to growing trade deficits. 3/8

ASEAN has overtaken the US and EU as China's largest export market. But here’s the catch:
📈 Chinese exports to ASEAN jumped 12% in 2024 📉 ASEAN exports to China? Just 2% growth
This widening imbalance is putting major pressure on ASEAN. What’s driving this shift? 2/8