Shaw T
@shawt.bsky.social
Novid; 33 year Climate War(s) veteran.
Generalist in an age of specialists. Sees the forest for the trees, and topsoil, as they relate to ocean change.
Generalist in an age of specialists. Sees the forest for the trees, and topsoil, as they relate to ocean change.
Per Schmidt's unexpected/unexplained surplus 0.2C anomaly those who claim the El Nino to La Nina shift will wash it away are ignoring...
that even if 2024 SST cooling proceeds according to 2016's ENSO transition, by year's end we'll find ourselves at or above 2015/16 El Nino SSTa level.
🙄
URL in ALT
that even if 2024 SST cooling proceeds according to 2016's ENSO transition, by year's end we'll find ourselves at or above 2015/16 El Nino SSTa level.
🙄
URL in ALT
April 16, 2024 at 9:47 PM
Per Schmidt's unexpected/unexplained surplus 0.2C anomaly those who claim the El Nino to La Nina shift will wash it away are ignoring...
that even if 2024 SST cooling proceeds according to 2016's ENSO transition, by year's end we'll find ourselves at or above 2015/16 El Nino SSTa level.
🙄
URL in ALT
that even if 2024 SST cooling proceeds according to 2016's ENSO transition, by year's end we'll find ourselves at or above 2015/16 El Nino SSTa level.
🙄
URL in ALT
Arguably #3 is the worst - it should be phrased "It's not that bad"...
... especially when promoted by climate scientists making Anti-Doomism talking points, as if censoring how dire our circumstances are serves any good purpose whatsoever.
Katherine Hayhoe blocked me for:
bsky.app/profile/shaw...
... especially when promoted by climate scientists making Anti-Doomism talking points, as if censoring how dire our circumstances are serves any good purpose whatsoever.
Katherine Hayhoe blocked me for:
bsky.app/profile/shaw...
April 13, 2024 at 2:52 PM
Arguably #3 is the worst - it should be phrased "It's not that bad"...
... especially when promoted by climate scientists making Anti-Doomism talking points, as if censoring how dire our circumstances are serves any good purpose whatsoever.
Katherine Hayhoe blocked me for:
bsky.app/profile/shaw...
... especially when promoted by climate scientists making Anti-Doomism talking points, as if censoring how dire our circumstances are serves any good purpose whatsoever.
Katherine Hayhoe blocked me for:
bsky.app/profile/shaw...
As a scientist you appear to be playing into the popular unwillingness to understand just how dire our circumstances are, which is how our circumstances became so dire, as identified by Uncharted Territory/Waters.
My simple question is Why?... as a long ago NASA GISS intern/Wally's World student.
😎
My simple question is Why?... as a long ago NASA GISS intern/Wally's World student.
😎
April 12, 2024 at 5:05 PM
As a scientist you appear to be playing into the popular unwillingness to understand just how dire our circumstances are, which is how our circumstances became so dire, as identified by Uncharted Territory/Waters.
My simple question is Why?... as a long ago NASA GISS intern/Wally's World student.
😎
My simple question is Why?... as a long ago NASA GISS intern/Wally's World student.
😎
Surely you understand that the Urgency & Priority of Now has remained deliberately diluted for 35 years.
Between Rahmstorf's latest, the sleeping giant Antarctica awakening, AMOC/SMOC slowdown(s), teleconnections & Uncharted Territory...
2 years may in fact decide it, no?
bsky.app/profile/shaw...
Between Rahmstorf's latest, the sleeping giant Antarctica awakening, AMOC/SMOC slowdown(s), teleconnections & Uncharted Territory...
2 years may in fact decide it, no?
bsky.app/profile/shaw...
April 12, 2024 at 2:24 PM
Surely you understand that the Urgency & Priority of Now has remained deliberately diluted for 35 years.
Between Rahmstorf's latest, the sleeping giant Antarctica awakening, AMOC/SMOC slowdown(s), teleconnections & Uncharted Territory...
2 years may in fact decide it, no?
bsky.app/profile/shaw...
Between Rahmstorf's latest, the sleeping giant Antarctica awakening, AMOC/SMOC slowdown(s), teleconnections & Uncharted Territory...
2 years may in fact decide it, no?
bsky.app/profile/shaw...
Rule #1: Anything that dilutes the Urgency & Priority of Now is really "bad."
Those who engage in sugar-coating the climate crises are contributing to Big Oil & Gas efforts to delay emissions mitigation for as long as possible, by any & all means possible.
www.resilience.org/stories/2024...
Those who engage in sugar-coating the climate crises are contributing to Big Oil & Gas efforts to delay emissions mitigation for as long as possible, by any & all means possible.
www.resilience.org/stories/2024...
5 Reasons for Environmentalists to Stop Blaming “Doom & Gloom” Narratives
For a more inclusive and intersectional approach to the solutions space, we need language and communication strategies that reflect that diversity and complexity.
www.resilience.org
April 12, 2024 at 2:01 PM
Rule #1: Anything that dilutes the Urgency & Priority of Now is really "bad."
Those who engage in sugar-coating the climate crises are contributing to Big Oil & Gas efforts to delay emissions mitigation for as long as possible, by any & all means possible.
www.resilience.org/stories/2024...
Those who engage in sugar-coating the climate crises are contributing to Big Oil & Gas efforts to delay emissions mitigation for as long as possible, by any & all means possible.
www.resilience.org/stories/2024...
That's odd.
Someone named Gavin Schmidt's Nature letter ID'ed being in "Uncharted Territory," not being able to account for 2023's 0.2C degree surplus anomaly as perhaps being the discovery of a knowledge gap, for the 1st time in 40 years.
But if GCMers all say "Don't Worry Be Happy"... Why worry?
🙄
Someone named Gavin Schmidt's Nature letter ID'ed being in "Uncharted Territory," not being able to account for 2023's 0.2C degree surplus anomaly as perhaps being the discovery of a knowledge gap, for the 1st time in 40 years.
But if GCMers all say "Don't Worry Be Happy"... Why worry?
🙄
April 5, 2024 at 10:52 PM
That's odd.
Someone named Gavin Schmidt's Nature letter ID'ed being in "Uncharted Territory," not being able to account for 2023's 0.2C degree surplus anomaly as perhaps being the discovery of a knowledge gap, for the 1st time in 40 years.
But if GCMers all say "Don't Worry Be Happy"... Why worry?
🙄
Someone named Gavin Schmidt's Nature letter ID'ed being in "Uncharted Territory," not being able to account for 2023's 0.2C degree surplus anomaly as perhaps being the discovery of a knowledge gap, for the 1st time in 40 years.
But if GCMers all say "Don't Worry Be Happy"... Why worry?
🙄
Hmmm, yeah well... it's likely worse than that.
Between AMOC (12%) & SMOC (30%) Slowdowns since 1990 & the likely "all of the above Acceleration answer (not just A for Aerosols per Hansen's latest)... incl. Antarctic Circumpolar Current's 5M year "acceleration" history...
Welcome to Wally's World!
😎
Between AMOC (12%) & SMOC (30%) Slowdowns since 1990 & the likely "all of the above Acceleration answer (not just A for Aerosols per Hansen's latest)... incl. Antarctic Circumpolar Current's 5M year "acceleration" history...
Welcome to Wally's World!
😎
March 31, 2024 at 6:59 AM
Hmmm, yeah well... it's likely worse than that.
Between AMOC (12%) & SMOC (30%) Slowdowns since 1990 & the likely "all of the above Acceleration answer (not just A for Aerosols per Hansen's latest)... incl. Antarctic Circumpolar Current's 5M year "acceleration" history...
Welcome to Wally's World!
😎
Between AMOC (12%) & SMOC (30%) Slowdowns since 1990 & the likely "all of the above Acceleration answer (not just A for Aerosols per Hansen's latest)... incl. Antarctic Circumpolar Current's 5M year "acceleration" history...
Welcome to Wally's World!
😎
Dare one suggest...
It's a pity that Revkin's interview did not feature more SSTa questions of yourself & Schmidt related to what GCM's may be missing.
As a long ago NASA GISS intern/Wally's World student:
Out: Beware melt pulses
In: Beware persistent SST Cold Blobs
OHC circulation slowdowns matter!
It's a pity that Revkin's interview did not feature more SSTa questions of yourself & Schmidt related to what GCM's may be missing.
As a long ago NASA GISS intern/Wally's World student:
Out: Beware melt pulses
In: Beware persistent SST Cold Blobs
OHC circulation slowdowns matter!
March 25, 2024 at 5:05 PM
Dare one suggest...
It's a pity that Revkin's interview did not feature more SSTa questions of yourself & Schmidt related to what GCM's may be missing.
As a long ago NASA GISS intern/Wally's World student:
Out: Beware melt pulses
In: Beware persistent SST Cold Blobs
OHC circulation slowdowns matter!
It's a pity that Revkin's interview did not feature more SSTa questions of yourself & Schmidt related to what GCM's may be missing.
As a long ago NASA GISS intern/Wally's World student:
Out: Beware melt pulses
In: Beware persistent SST Cold Blobs
OHC circulation slowdowns matter!
Inre: Bille's point, the Urgency & Priority of Now for examining those options, ASAP, has never been higher.
Invoking @climateofgavin.bsky.social 's 3/21/24 Nature letter, per unexpectedly hitting "uncharted territory" per the hows & whys of 2023's accelerating(?) change:
Yes! Now!
URLs in Alt-txt.
Invoking @climateofgavin.bsky.social 's 3/21/24 Nature letter, per unexpectedly hitting "uncharted territory" per the hows & whys of 2023's accelerating(?) change:
Yes! Now!
URLs in Alt-txt.
March 23, 2024 at 10:13 PM
Inre: Bille's point, the Urgency & Priority of Now for examining those options, ASAP, has never been higher.
Invoking @climateofgavin.bsky.social 's 3/21/24 Nature letter, per unexpectedly hitting "uncharted territory" per the hows & whys of 2023's accelerating(?) change:
Yes! Now!
URLs in Alt-txt.
Invoking @climateofgavin.bsky.social 's 3/21/24 Nature letter, per unexpectedly hitting "uncharted territory" per the hows & whys of 2023's accelerating(?) change:
Yes! Now!
URLs in Alt-txt.
Know what's even funnier?
Pretty sure you X blocked me for posting about 2023's off the chart SSTa & ocean circulation slowdown studies, related to AMOC/Antarctic overturning/circulation slowdown, including Rahmstorf & England vids.
Didn't mind as have another X account... but wicked 🤣 ironic, eh?
😎
Pretty sure you X blocked me for posting about 2023's off the chart SSTa & ocean circulation slowdown studies, related to AMOC/Antarctic overturning/circulation slowdown, including Rahmstorf & England vids.
Didn't mind as have another X account... but wicked 🤣 ironic, eh?
😎
March 23, 2024 at 3:05 AM
Know what's even funnier?
Pretty sure you X blocked me for posting about 2023's off the chart SSTa & ocean circulation slowdown studies, related to AMOC/Antarctic overturning/circulation slowdown, including Rahmstorf & England vids.
Didn't mind as have another X account... but wicked 🤣 ironic, eh?
😎
Pretty sure you X blocked me for posting about 2023's off the chart SSTa & ocean circulation slowdown studies, related to AMOC/Antarctic overturning/circulation slowdown, including Rahmstorf & England vids.
Didn't mind as have another X account... but wicked 🤣 ironic, eh?
😎
So timely & apt esp. related to Schmidt's latest quotables.
OTOH there's the "it's too late, why bother?" Doomism promoted by Big Oil.
OTO the "learning curve" passing Doomism per sorting out observations & science.
Censoring "learning" Doomism censors science & dilutes ASAP urgency.
URL in Alt-Text
OTOH there's the "it's too late, why bother?" Doomism promoted by Big Oil.
OTO the "learning curve" passing Doomism per sorting out observations & science.
Censoring "learning" Doomism censors science & dilutes ASAP urgency.
URL in Alt-Text
March 20, 2024 at 3:47 PM
So timely & apt esp. related to Schmidt's latest quotables.
OTOH there's the "it's too late, why bother?" Doomism promoted by Big Oil.
OTO the "learning curve" passing Doomism per sorting out observations & science.
Censoring "learning" Doomism censors science & dilutes ASAP urgency.
URL in Alt-Text
OTOH there's the "it's too late, why bother?" Doomism promoted by Big Oil.
OTO the "learning curve" passing Doomism per sorting out observations & science.
Censoring "learning" Doomism censors science & dilutes ASAP urgency.
URL in Alt-Text
Yes, per not being able to account for 0.2C warming.
Unknown per why, but as Schmidt hints "likely."
Per prior reply, there's a dif. between uncertainty & being doomed. A timely & apt nature letter:
"Are we all doomed? How to cope with the daunting uncertainties of climate change"
URL vis Alt-text
Unknown per why, but as Schmidt hints "likely."
Per prior reply, there's a dif. between uncertainty & being doomed. A timely & apt nature letter:
"Are we all doomed? How to cope with the daunting uncertainties of climate change"
URL vis Alt-text
March 20, 2024 at 3:14 PM
Yes, per not being able to account for 0.2C warming.
Unknown per why, but as Schmidt hints "likely."
Per prior reply, there's a dif. between uncertainty & being doomed. A timely & apt nature letter:
"Are we all doomed? How to cope with the daunting uncertainties of climate change"
URL vis Alt-text
Unknown per why, but as Schmidt hints "likely."
Per prior reply, there's a dif. between uncertainty & being doomed. A timely & apt nature letter:
"Are we all doomed? How to cope with the daunting uncertainties of climate change"
URL vis Alt-text
As much as AMOC Collapse made a big media "splash," Slowdowns matter a lot also, given ocean conveyor system where slowing inputs beget slowing outputs.
With that in mind, this 2023 "cool-blob" somewhat jumped off FT's map per Antarctica regime shift as of 2020 (2015?) & per SSTa shifts since 2010.
With that in mind, this 2023 "cool-blob" somewhat jumped off FT's map per Antarctica regime shift as of 2020 (2015?) & per SSTa shifts since 2010.
March 19, 2024 at 8:31 PM
As much as AMOC Collapse made a big media "splash," Slowdowns matter a lot also, given ocean conveyor system where slowing inputs beget slowing outputs.
With that in mind, this 2023 "cool-blob" somewhat jumped off FT's map per Antarctica regime shift as of 2020 (2015?) & per SSTa shifts since 2010.
With that in mind, this 2023 "cool-blob" somewhat jumped off FT's map per Antarctica regime shift as of 2020 (2015?) & per SSTa shifts since 2010.
As a NASA GISS intern who also took Wally's World (Broecker) courses 33+ years back... Thank You!
Hansen et al's 2016 "Ice Melt" update & followup to his "Aerosols/Pipeline" paper will address ocean circulation issues.
AMOC has slowed 12-15% & Antarctica 30% since 1990s, pre-2023...
URL vis Alt-text
Hansen et al's 2016 "Ice Melt" update & followup to his "Aerosols/Pipeline" paper will address ocean circulation issues.
AMOC has slowed 12-15% & Antarctica 30% since 1990s, pre-2023...
URL vis Alt-text
March 19, 2024 at 8:17 PM
As a NASA GISS intern who also took Wally's World (Broecker) courses 33+ years back... Thank You!
Hansen et al's 2016 "Ice Melt" update & followup to his "Aerosols/Pipeline" paper will address ocean circulation issues.
AMOC has slowed 12-15% & Antarctica 30% since 1990s, pre-2023...
URL vis Alt-text
Hansen et al's 2016 "Ice Melt" update & followup to his "Aerosols/Pipeline" paper will address ocean circulation issues.
AMOC has slowed 12-15% & Antarctica 30% since 1990s, pre-2023...
URL vis Alt-text
Sure, no problem. I'll stop replying to your posts & will leave it at "Thank You!"
Never said I know more or that anyone is too slow...
but per task of peer reviewed science catching up w/ 2023's ocean change related observations, here it is... in their own words.
www.newyorker.com/news/daily-c...
Never said I know more or that anyone is too slow...
but per task of peer reviewed science catching up w/ 2023's ocean change related observations, here it is... in their own words.
www.newyorker.com/news/daily-c...
Why Is the Sea So Hot?
A startling rise in sea-surface temperatures suggests that we may not understand how fast the climate is changing.
www.newyorker.com
March 16, 2024 at 10:20 PM
Sure, no problem. I'll stop replying to your posts & will leave it at "Thank You!"
Never said I know more or that anyone is too slow...
but per task of peer reviewed science catching up w/ 2023's ocean change related observations, here it is... in their own words.
www.newyorker.com/news/daily-c...
Never said I know more or that anyone is too slow...
but per task of peer reviewed science catching up w/ 2023's ocean change related observations, here it is... in their own words.
www.newyorker.com/news/daily-c...
Here are two 2022 refs/reviews from prior reply. URL links are in Alt-text.
Interpretation is part of the Antarctic regime shift that peer viewed science needs to catch up with & sort out.
Paleo-climate record IDs a multi-decadal melt lag w/ the Arctic, which has dif. circumstances per "why ARs?"
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Interpretation is part of the Antarctic regime shift that peer viewed science needs to catch up with & sort out.
Paleo-climate record IDs a multi-decadal melt lag w/ the Arctic, which has dif. circumstances per "why ARs?"
😎
March 16, 2024 at 5:47 PM
Here are two 2022 refs/reviews from prior reply. URL links are in Alt-text.
Interpretation is part of the Antarctic regime shift that peer viewed science needs to catch up with & sort out.
Paleo-climate record IDs a multi-decadal melt lag w/ the Arctic, which has dif. circumstances per "why ARs?"
😎
Interpretation is part of the Antarctic regime shift that peer viewed science needs to catch up with & sort out.
Paleo-climate record IDs a multi-decadal melt lag w/ the Arctic, which has dif. circumstances per "why ARs?"
😎
Maybe if we used a different projection?
Waiting to see a 2024 trifecta of Atmospheric Rivers... given "beyond ENSO" uptick of such SSTa driven Antarctic events..
Per Berra'isms "The future ain't what it used to be" & past is no longer prologue.
I've shared w/ links. Thank You!
😎
URLs in Alt text.
Waiting to see a 2024 trifecta of Atmospheric Rivers... given "beyond ENSO" uptick of such SSTa driven Antarctic events..
Per Berra'isms "The future ain't what it used to be" & past is no longer prologue.
I've shared w/ links. Thank You!
😎
URLs in Alt text.
March 16, 2024 at 3:20 PM
Maybe if we used a different projection?
Waiting to see a 2024 trifecta of Atmospheric Rivers... given "beyond ENSO" uptick of such SSTa driven Antarctic events..
Per Berra'isms "The future ain't what it used to be" & past is no longer prologue.
I've shared w/ links. Thank You!
😎
URLs in Alt text.
Waiting to see a 2024 trifecta of Atmospheric Rivers... given "beyond ENSO" uptick of such SSTa driven Antarctic events..
Per Berra'isms "The future ain't what it used to be" & past is no longer prologue.
I've shared w/ links. Thank You!
😎
URLs in Alt text.
There is more to explain.
I'm watching it thru the Welcome to Wally's World SST context of ocean overturning/circulation slowdown(s), the subject of Hansen's next discuss paper.
Even if 2024 follows 2016's cool-off SSTa temps will likely be higher by 2025 than they were in Jan. '16.
URLs in Alt text
I'm watching it thru the Welcome to Wally's World SST context of ocean overturning/circulation slowdown(s), the subject of Hansen's next discuss paper.
Even if 2024 follows 2016's cool-off SSTa temps will likely be higher by 2025 than they were in Jan. '16.
URLs in Alt text
March 16, 2024 at 1:07 AM
There is more to explain.
I'm watching it thru the Welcome to Wally's World SST context of ocean overturning/circulation slowdown(s), the subject of Hansen's next discuss paper.
Even if 2024 follows 2016's cool-off SSTa temps will likely be higher by 2025 than they were in Jan. '16.
URLs in Alt text
I'm watching it thru the Welcome to Wally's World SST context of ocean overturning/circulation slowdown(s), the subject of Hansen's next discuss paper.
Even if 2024 follows 2016's cool-off SSTa temps will likely be higher by 2025 than they were in Jan. '16.
URLs in Alt text
I'm not being definitive either. It may take a while for peer-reviewed to catch up & sort it out.
Somewhat obviously the jet stream is playing a "new" role in delivering heat & ARs to AP whcih seems worthy of flagging with a ?, given trends.
Thank you for your updates!
😎
eos.org/articles/mel...
Somewhat obviously the jet stream is playing a "new" role in delivering heat & ARs to AP whcih seems worthy of flagging with a ?, given trends.
Thank you for your updates!
😎
eos.org/articles/mel...
Meltwater from Antarctic Glaciers Is Slowing Deep-Ocean Currents - Eos
Antarctic ice drives crucial deep-ocean currents that help regulate Earth’s climate. But the system is slowing down.
eos.org
March 10, 2024 at 2:59 PM
I'm not being definitive either. It may take a while for peer-reviewed to catch up & sort it out.
Somewhat obviously the jet stream is playing a "new" role in delivering heat & ARs to AP whcih seems worthy of flagging with a ?, given trends.
Thank you for your updates!
😎
eos.org/articles/mel...
Somewhat obviously the jet stream is playing a "new" role in delivering heat & ARs to AP whcih seems worthy of flagging with a ?, given trends.
Thank you for your updates!
😎
eos.org/articles/mel...
With 4 such AP events in 4 years (w/ '22 & '20), or 5 incl. March '22 for E. Antarctica, jet stream change seems to be 4th element of beyond ENSO Antarctic Regime Shift...
coupled with record sea ice extent lows, SSTa & overturning/circumpolar circulation slowdown.
Given feedbacks... expect "more."
coupled with record sea ice extent lows, SSTa & overturning/circumpolar circulation slowdown.
Given feedbacks... expect "more."
March 10, 2024 at 2:24 PM
With 4 such AP events in 4 years (w/ '22 & '20), or 5 incl. March '22 for E. Antarctica, jet stream change seems to be 4th element of beyond ENSO Antarctic Regime Shift...
coupled with record sea ice extent lows, SSTa & overturning/circumpolar circulation slowdown.
Given feedbacks... expect "more."
coupled with record sea ice extent lows, SSTa & overturning/circumpolar circulation slowdown.
Given feedbacks... expect "more."
Thanks to your updates, I've been looking at SSTa & jet stream role....
having followed Dr. Jennifer Francis's Arctic amplification/jet stream discoveries as of 2011.
SSTa has since taken on a bigger role, as one would expect also for Antarctic.
Context, with a glance back to mid-March 2022 "event."
having followed Dr. Jennifer Francis's Arctic amplification/jet stream discoveries as of 2011.
SSTa has since taken on a bigger role, as one would expect also for Antarctic.
Context, with a glance back to mid-March 2022 "event."
March 9, 2024 at 11:11 PM
Thanks to your updates, I've been looking at SSTa & jet stream role....
having followed Dr. Jennifer Francis's Arctic amplification/jet stream discoveries as of 2011.
SSTa has since taken on a bigger role, as one would expect also for Antarctic.
Context, with a glance back to mid-March 2022 "event."
having followed Dr. Jennifer Francis's Arctic amplification/jet stream discoveries as of 2011.
SSTa has since taken on a bigger role, as one would expect also for Antarctic.
Context, with a glance back to mid-March 2022 "event."