In summary, what consumers have been saying differs from what they have been doing during the post-pandemic period. We should exercise caution when using consumer sentiment surveys to infer future consumer behavior given this recent disconnect between what consumers say and do.

The more people thought the prices they paid rose faster than their incomes, the worse they said they were doing. And consumers were more likely to overestimate than to underestimate the inflation they experienced.

We show that verified spending on everyday retail items (which we merged with the survey results) remained strong even among those who said they felt worse about the economy in 2024 compared with 2019.

Thanks for this! I’d love to be added please.