Severin Borenstein
@severinborenstein.bsky.social
Economics, Business, and Energy Prof at UC Berkeley. Member, Board of Governors, CA ISO. All opinions only my own.
Update on California's Mystery Gasoline Surcharge: holding steady around $0.50 per gallon. In last 6 weeks, however, mostly due to higher spot prices, not downstream margins. Worrisome given one recent and one impending refinery closure. For context: energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/08/18/c...
November 18, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Update on California's Mystery Gasoline Surcharge: holding steady around $0.50 per gallon. In last 6 weeks, however, mostly due to higher spot prices, not downstream margins. Worrisome given one recent and one impending refinery closure. For context: energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/08/18/c...
Closely related reporting from OPIS
www.opis.com/resources/en...
www.opis.com/resources/en...
Phoenix to Receive Half of Proposed Product Pipeline's Volumes: Phillips 66 - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company
www.opis.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Closely related reporting from OPIS
www.opis.com/resources/en...
www.opis.com/resources/en...
Fairly detailed update on CA gasoline market. But omits fact that CA spot price was $0.70-$0.90 above NY/Gulf for > 1 month after Chevron El Segundo fire, rather than normal $0.15-$0.30. CA needs more storage to avoid spikes in this new world. Plus end to Jones Act.
www.opis.com/resources/en...
www.opis.com/resources/en...
As Reliance on Imported Gasoline Rises, California Adapts to a 'New World' - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company
www.opis.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Fairly detailed update on CA gasoline market. But omits fact that CA spot price was $0.70-$0.90 above NY/Gulf for > 1 month after Chevron El Segundo fire, rather than normal $0.15-$0.30. CA needs more storage to avoid spikes in this new world. Plus end to Jones Act.
www.opis.com/resources/en...
www.opis.com/resources/en...
Hard-nosed rules for new large load interconnections are catching on across the political spectrum. A good sign for protecting existing customers from rate increases driven by stranded T&D investments.
www.utilitydive.com/news/kansas-...
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www.utilitydive.com/news/kansas-...
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Kansas, Michigan regulators approve large load rules for Evergy, Consumers Energy
The new rules, plus proposed legislation in Delaware, aim to ensure that existing utility customers don’t pay costs related to interconnecting data centers and manufacturers.
www.utilitydive.com
November 12, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Hard-nosed rules for new large load interconnections are catching on across the political spectrum. A good sign for protecting existing customers from rate increases driven by stranded T&D investments.
www.utilitydive.com/news/kansas-...
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www.utilitydive.com/news/kansas-...
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In my EI blog post today, I discuss the CA debate over how to return some of the cap and trade revenue to households and explain why I think a fixed rebate for every household the utility serves should be replace by a discount per-kilowatt-hour.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/11/10/s... 🔌💡
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/11/10/s... 🔌💡
Spreading the Cap-and-Trade Wealth
Last month, when Gov. Newsom signed a bill extending California’s cap and trade program to 2045, one section of the bill mandated changes in the “Climate Credit” that residential customers have bee…
energyathaas.wordpress.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:51 PM
In my EI blog post today, I discuss the CA debate over how to return some of the cap and trade revenue to households and explain why I think a fixed rebate for every household the utility serves should be replace by a discount per-kilowatt-hour.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/11/10/s... 🔌💡
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/11/10/s... 🔌💡
Stay strong, Canada. I'm ashamed of how this administration has treated our closest friends. Some of us are doing what we can to push back against the cruelty and abuse. Apologies that America let this happen.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Canada’s Economy Starts to Buckle Under Trump’s Tariffs
Nowhere is the toll of Trump’s trade policies more apparent than in Canada’s manufacturing heartland in the provinces of Ontario and Quebec.
www.wsj.com
November 9, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Stay strong, Canada. I'm ashamed of how this administration has treated our closest friends. Some of us are doing what we can to push back against the cruelty and abuse. Apologies that America let this happen.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Not an energy post, but FT has a very funny "page not found" message: answers to why the page wasn't found based on economic concepts. And you don't need a subscription to read it.
www.ft.com/content/1095...
www.ft.com/content/1095...
Client Challenge
Please enable JavaScript to proceed.
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Not an energy post, but FT has a very funny "page not found" message: answers to why the page wasn't found based on economic concepts. And you don't need a subscription to read it.
www.ft.com/content/1095...
www.ft.com/content/1095...
Canary media correct that MA elec rate is way above MC, bc much of price pays for infrastructure that is not constrained except at peak hour, so high price distorts customer behavior. So true for heat pumps. Also for excessive incentive to install rooftop solar.
www.canarymedia.com/articles/hea...
www.canarymedia.com/articles/hea...
Massachusetts heat-pump owners are about to get cheaper electricity
The state’s innovative winter heat-pump rates go into effect this weekend and should make the tech more accessible. Deeper discounts could come next year.
www.canarymedia.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Canary media correct that MA elec rate is way above MC, bc much of price pays for infrastructure that is not constrained except at peak hour, so high price distorts customer behavior. So true for heat pumps. Also for excessive incentive to install rooftop solar.
www.canarymedia.com/articles/hea...
www.canarymedia.com/articles/hea...
Kinder Morgan talking about building a new pipeline from TX to CA through AZ. Seems like a big bet CA won't respond to declining refinery capacity by increasing capacity to receive tanker imports. Will KM get enough subscribers to build it?
www.azcentral.com/story/news/l...
www.azcentral.com/story/news/l...
Where will a new gas pipeline cross Arizona? Environmental advocates question plans
The Western Gateway pipeline will deliver up to 200,000 barrels of gas a day, but environmental groups raise new concerns.
www.azcentral.com
November 5, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Kinder Morgan talking about building a new pipeline from TX to CA through AZ. Seems like a big bet CA won't respond to declining refinery capacity by increasing capacity to receive tanker imports. Will KM get enough subscribers to build it?
www.azcentral.com/story/news/l...
www.azcentral.com/story/news/l...
In EI blog, Lucas Davis and Paige Weber explain their new paper finds regulated IOUs are less responsive to wholesale prices than merchant generators in their decisions to close a plant. That leads to important inefficiencies in the generation fleet.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/11/03/d...
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energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/11/03/d...
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Does Regulation Distort Exit Decisions?
New study shows regulated coal and gas units were 45% less likely to exit between 2011 and 2023. (Today’s post is co-authored by Paige Weber.) Hundreds of power plants have closed in the United Sta…
energyathaas.wordpress.com
November 4, 2025 at 3:35 PM
In EI blog, Lucas Davis and Paige Weber explain their new paper finds regulated IOUs are less responsive to wholesale prices than merchant generators in their decisions to close a plant. That leads to important inefficiencies in the generation fleet.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/11/03/d...
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energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/11/03/d...
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Well said, Tyler.
I have a @nytimes.com op-ed today on managing power demand growth. Central point: load growth is an opportunity to *offset* upward rate pressure (and avoid gas overbuild), if we plan the system to make fuller use of infrastructure we’ve already paid for. 🔌💡 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/o...
November 4, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Well said, Tyler.
Excellent long read about Texas' love/hate history with wind power and attempts by trump and his minions to argue (without evidence, as usual) that wind development has hurt the state.
www.houstonchronicle.com/business/ene...
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www.houstonchronicle.com/business/ene...
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Trump hates wind energy. Why does Texas have more than any other state?
President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized wind energy over the years. Yet decades ago, it was Texas Republicans who started the U.S. wind-power boom.
www.houstonchronicle.com
November 3, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Excellent long read about Texas' love/hate history with wind power and attempts by trump and his minions to argue (without evidence, as usual) that wind development has hurt the state.
www.houstonchronicle.com/business/ene...
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www.houstonchronicle.com/business/ene...
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US ethanol exports on the rise. Very discouraging bc it continues to be sold as low-GHG. Lots of evidence that it is not. Also worth noting that CA recently started allowing 15% ethanol blend. Other states already *allow*, but most retailerscontinue to sell E-10 instead.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
U.S. fuel ethanol exports on track to set record, driving more domestic production - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
www.eia.gov
October 31, 2025 at 2:29 PM
US ethanol exports on the rise. Very discouraging bc it continues to be sold as low-GHG. Lots of evidence that it is not. Also worth noting that CA recently started allowing 15% ethanol blend. Other states already *allow*, but most retailerscontinue to sell E-10 instead.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
In Energy Institue blog, Jim Bushnell unpacks whether a bubble in AI/data centers would leave us with valuable infrastructure as happened with railroads and fiber optics. Important differences are being overlooked.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/13/i...
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energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/13/i...
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Is There Really an Energy Silver Lining to a Datacenter Bubble?
How do comparisons to railroads and fiber add up? Being an expert in the electricity industry is becoming cool again because, all of a sudden, the link between power and Tech has never been stronge…
energyathaas.wordpress.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:37 PM
In Energy Institue blog, Jim Bushnell unpacks whether a bubble in AI/data centers would leave us with valuable infrastructure as happened with railroads and fiber optics. Important differences are being overlooked.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/13/i...
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energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/13/i...
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Not sure how this got past the administration's communication controls, but EIA had a nice piece last Friday on the increasing role of solar/wind/batteries in Texas.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
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www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
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ERCOT increasingly meets rising demand with solar, wind, and batteries - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
www.eia.gov
October 30, 2025 at 12:26 AM
Not sure how this got past the administration's communication controls, but EIA had a nice piece last Friday on the increasing role of solar/wind/batteries in Texas.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
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www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
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Meredith Fowlie's insightful Energy Institute blog post yesterday about the permitting issues and local NIMBY barriers to EV charging stations. Neighbors need to be heard, but whether it is housing or EV charging, they can't have a complete veto.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/27/t...
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/27/t...
The Fast Lane to Electric Vehicle Charging
Where the permitting reform rubber meets the road. A record number of Americans went electric vehicle shopping last quarter. Between July and September, EVs accounted for 10% of new vehicle sales i…
energyathaas.wordpress.com
October 28, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Meredith Fowlie's insightful Energy Institute blog post yesterday about the permitting issues and local NIMBY barriers to EV charging stations. Neighbors need to be heard, but whether it is housing or EV charging, they can't have a complete veto.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/27/t...
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/27/t...
Fascinating WSJ on recent geothermal power developments, much due to fed govt support. To me, an economist with no technical knowledge on this, super exciting. Hope they can get the economics to work very soon.
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
CA sends mixed signals
www.utilitydive.com/news/newsom-...
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www.wsj.com/business/ene...
CA sends mixed signals
www.utilitydive.com/news/newsom-...
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We Finally Know How to Get the One Renewable Energy Source Loved by Both Parties
Geothermal energy comes closer to competing with natural gas on cost and reliability, boosters say, thanks to new technologies, generous tax incentives and decades of fundamental research.
www.wsj.com
October 27, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Fascinating WSJ on recent geothermal power developments, much due to fed govt support. To me, an economist with no technical knowledge on this, super exciting. Hope they can get the economics to work very soon.
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
CA sends mixed signals
www.utilitydive.com/news/newsom-...
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www.wsj.com/business/ene...
CA sends mixed signals
www.utilitydive.com/news/newsom-...
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Resources Radio (from RFF) today dropped their podcast episode w Daniel Raimi talking to me about my research on "Energy Hog" households, who are mostly just homes in hot climates, with many occupants and w/out rooftop solar.
www.resources.org/resources-ra...
haas.berkeley.edu/energy-insti...
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www.resources.org/resources-ra...
haas.berkeley.edu/energy-insti...
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Hunting for Energy Hogs, with Severin Borenstein
Severin Borenstein discusses the concept of “energy hogs,” ways energy hogs may be punished by regulators, why these penalties are unfair, and alternative options for regulation that can help US state...
www.resources.org
October 22, 2025 at 3:30 AM
Resources Radio (from RFF) today dropped their podcast episode w Daniel Raimi talking to me about my research on "Energy Hog" households, who are mostly just homes in hot climates, with many occupants and w/out rooftop solar.
www.resources.org/resources-ra...
haas.berkeley.edu/energy-insti...
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www.resources.org/resources-ra...
haas.berkeley.edu/energy-insti...
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I'm back from vacation (and the huge Oakland No Kings protest). Lots to catch up on posting. In the EI blog today, Jim Sallee has an excellent analysis of the poorly designed, but good direction, of proposed international shipping GHG regulations.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/c...
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/c...
Carbon Pricing on the High Seas?
The international maritime organization gets close to a carbon tax. If an environmental economist stumbled upon a magic lamp and got one wish from the genie, most of us would know what to ask for—a…
energyathaas.wordpress.com
October 20, 2025 at 3:22 PM
I'm back from vacation (and the huge Oakland No Kings protest). Lots to catch up on posting. In the EI blog today, Jim Sallee has an excellent analysis of the poorly designed, but good direction, of proposed international shipping GHG regulations.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/c...
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/10/20/c...
My EI blog post today on how data center demand growth may drive up elec prices in near term, but managed well, should help lower retail price. Regulators must assure data centers reduce demand when grid is strained and pay fair share of system fixed costs.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/29/w...
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/29/w...
What Will Data Centers Do To Your Electric Bill?
The threat of increased rates is real, but good policy can bring lower prices as demand grows. Electricity has recently replaced eggs, beef, and gasoline as the inflation concern du jour. Reporters…
energyathaas.wordpress.com
September 29, 2025 at 9:24 PM
My EI blog post today on how data center demand growth may drive up elec prices in near term, but managed well, should help lower retail price. Regulators must assure data centers reduce demand when grid is strained and pay fair share of system fixed costs.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/29/w...
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/29/w...
Outstanding episode of Shift Key. Jesse Jenkins & Rob Meyer explain transmission & distribution remain regulated monopolies and challenges regulating them. Only quibble with idea incentive regulation substantially improves outcomes. It creates its own distortions.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/u...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/u...
Utility Regulation Really Sucks
Podcast Episode · Shift Key with Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins · 09/10/2025 · 1h 7m
podcasts.apple.com
September 16, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Outstanding episode of Shift Key. Jesse Jenkins & Rob Meyer explain transmission & distribution remain regulated monopolies and challenges regulating them. Only quibble with idea incentive regulation substantially improves outcomes. It creates its own distortions.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/u...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/u...
In the Energy Institute blog, Meredith Fowlie is out today with an important analysis of California's legislative accomplishments on electricity affordability as the session wrapped up last week.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/15/r...
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energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/15/r...
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Reining in California’s Runaway Electricity Rates
We’ve led the nation in rate hikes. Now we’re test-driving some affordability fixes. National headlines are warning of an energy affordability crisis, with electricity rates cast as a primary culpr…
energyathaas.wordpress.com
September 15, 2025 at 4:03 PM
In the Energy Institute blog, Meredith Fowlie is out today with an important analysis of California's legislative accomplishments on electricity affordability as the session wrapped up last week.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/15/r...
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energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/15/r...
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Lots of balcony solar discussion these days. Interesting idea but price in US is still much higher than grid scale. At 3% discount rate and 15% cap fac, the 200W system mentioned has LCOE of $0.13 if it last 25 years, $0.22 if it lasts 10 years.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Column | Can’t put solar panels on your roof? Plug-in ‘balcony solar’ may be for you.
Balcony solar promises to cut energy costs and grid reliance for renters and apartment-dwellers. I did a trial run at my home.
www.washingtonpost.com
September 12, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Lots of balcony solar discussion these days. Interesting idea but price in US is still much higher than grid scale. At 3% discount rate and 15% cap fac, the 200W system mentioned has LCOE of $0.13 if it last 25 years, $0.22 if it lasts 10 years.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
I've been asking questions about the low natural gas prices in the Pacific Northwest. Today, EIA has a great piece with many answers. It's the imports from Western Canada, where prices are even lower. Gotta love those benefits of international trade...while they last.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
Northwest U.S. natural gas prices remain historically low in 2025 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
www.eia.gov
September 12, 2025 at 2:13 AM
I've been asking questions about the low natural gas prices in the Pacific Northwest. Today, EIA has a great piece with many answers. It's the imports from Western Canada, where prices are even lower. Gotta love those benefits of international trade...while they last.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
EI resident energy effic label expert, Lucas Davis, has great post today on fuel effic labels for EVs. I think he is too easy on them: annual cost estimate is based on US avg elec price, but they vary far more across states (3x+) than gas prices do.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/08/a...
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/08/a...
Are Fuel Economy Labels Accurate for EVs?
Information needs to be up to date to help buyers make good decisions. With the electric vehicle (EV) tax credit expiring at the end of the month, a lot of people have been running out to the deale…
energyathaas.wordpress.com
September 9, 2025 at 3:41 AM
EI resident energy effic label expert, Lucas Davis, has great post today on fuel effic labels for EVs. I think he is too easy on them: annual cost estimate is based on US avg elec price, but they vary far more across states (3x+) than gas prices do.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/08/a...
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/08/a...