Sébastien Roblin
@sebastienroblin.bsky.social
I write about defense, history and aviation for Popular Mechanics, 19Fortyfive, Forbes, CNN, NBC, Inside Unmanned Systems. In past, National Interest. Former Peace Corps China.
A typically egregious example of illiteracy by editor writing headlines. The text by article author doesn't say anything inaccurate to my knowledge, but editor-chosen headline says 'jets' when describing a helicopter + jet fighter; says they 'vanished' when both ditched and had crews rescued.
November 9, 2025 at 6:17 PM
A typically egregious example of illiteracy by editor writing headlines. The text by article author doesn't say anything inaccurate to my knowledge, but editor-chosen headline says 'jets' when describing a helicopter + jet fighter; says they 'vanished' when both ditched and had crews rescued.
A few highlights. 1) Gripens are super cheap to operate (but not to buy) 2) Kyiv says it's still trying to get Rafales, new F-16s and Gripen-C/Ds too! 3) Not stealth fighters. But have many useful tricks with radar, electronic warfare. 4) Can use Meteor, deadliest air-to-air missile available. 2/2
November 3, 2025 at 3:55 PM
A few highlights. 1) Gripens are super cheap to operate (but not to buy) 2) Kyiv says it's still trying to get Rafales, new F-16s and Gripen-C/Ds too! 3) Not stealth fighters. But have many useful tricks with radar, electronic warfare. 4) Can use Meteor, deadliest air-to-air missile available. 2/2
The Dungeons and Dragons film!
November 2, 2025 at 11:27 PM
The Dungeons and Dragons film!
The Navy said it wasn't hurrying to develop drone fighters called Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs). But last week revealed 5x contracts for carrier-based CCA concepts! Read on for contractors, challenges of carrier drone ops, Navy's divergent CCA concept & politics behind Navy's about face.1/2
September 12, 2025 at 4:27 PM
The Navy said it wasn't hurrying to develop drone fighters called Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs). But last week revealed 5x contracts for carrier-based CCA concepts! Read on for contractors, challenges of carrier drone ops, Navy's divergent CCA concept & politics behind Navy's about face.1/2
It looks like Chinese Coast Guard corvette 3104's bow got sheered off at the tip, short of the 76mm gun. There were several crew visible here before impact, I hope they escaped but this doesn't look great.
August 12, 2025 at 5:34 AM
It looks like Chinese Coast Guard corvette 3104's bow got sheered off at the tip, short of the 76mm gun. There were several crew visible here before impact, I hope they escaped but this doesn't look great.
The Chinese warships bristling with anti-ship missiles and large deck guns are bullying a tiny Filipino patrol boat armed with a few .50 cal machineguns to assert claims over Scarborough Shoal, 150 miles west of The Philippines & 500 miles SE of nearest Chinese soil (Hainan Island). 2/3
August 11, 2025 at 5:07 AM
The Chinese warships bristling with anti-ship missiles and large deck guns are bullying a tiny Filipino patrol boat armed with a few .50 cal machineguns to assert claims over Scarborough Shoal, 150 miles west of The Philippines & 500 miles SE of nearest Chinese soil (Hainan Island). 2/3
High praise indeed, the Pyro GX was something else!
July 9, 2025 at 5:57 PM
High praise indeed, the Pyro GX was something else!
A grotesque detail from report: Investigators determined that Russia fired 120mm thermobaric rounds--highly lethal to building occupants--into barracks using two Nona-S gun-mortar armored vehicles. Sound of which was masked by concurrent Grad rocket barrage, as was suspected at time. 2/3
July 1, 2025 at 4:30 PM
A grotesque detail from report: Investigators determined that Russia fired 120mm thermobaric rounds--highly lethal to building occupants--into barracks using two Nona-S gun-mortar armored vehicles. Sound of which was masked by concurrent Grad rocket barrage, as was suspected at time. 2/3
Bonus: an F-14 outside the Cradle Aviation Museum, located not far from the plant in Bethpage, New York.
June 23, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Bonus: an F-14 outside the Cradle Aviation Museum, located not far from the plant in Bethpage, New York.
A recent article in the New Republic has an argument I broadly agree with, but cites some military figures without context. Tomasky is right broadly Iran's military could trouble U.S. but he counts the wrong things. 1/6
June 23, 2025 at 1:14 PM
A recent article in the New Republic has an argument I broadly agree with, but cites some military figures without context. Tomasky is right broadly Iran's military could trouble U.S. but he counts the wrong things. 1/6
I would quibble with implication drones are inferior substitute for depleted artillery capacity (though there is likely a historical-causal relationship!) Both have differing valuable effects, but I think FPVs are delivering anti-vehicle attrition at an unprecedented rate. 4/5
June 12, 2025 at 5:35 PM
I would quibble with implication drones are inferior substitute for depleted artillery capacity (though there is likely a historical-causal relationship!) Both have differing valuable effects, but I think FPVs are delivering anti-vehicle attrition at an unprecedented rate. 4/5
An interesting nuance is that current admin has latched onto some technologies--drones, standoff-range munitions, space--that are indeed important and need to be built more cheaply in mass! But it does so while absurdly downsizing other less sexy kinds of mass Ukraine war shows to be vital! 2/5
June 12, 2025 at 5:35 PM
An interesting nuance is that current admin has latched onto some technologies--drones, standoff-range munitions, space--that are indeed important and need to be built more cheaply in mass! But it does so while absurdly downsizing other less sexy kinds of mass Ukraine war shows to be vital! 2/5
Thus a political message, for now. However, Merz indicated Germany wouldn't announce arms transfers going forward, so *hypothetically* some things like Germany's Taurus cruise missile may have been, or might eventually be, secretly transferred. Time will tell. 2/2
May 26, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Thus a political message, for now. However, Merz indicated Germany wouldn't announce arms transfers going forward, so *hypothetically* some things like Germany's Taurus cruise missile may have been, or might eventually be, secretly transferred. Time will tell. 2/2
Alternately, has production run into bottlenecks we haven't detected? Or are cruise missiles not achieving as cost-efficient penetration rates as ballistics & Shaheds for strategic raids on Ukraine, so more are being stockpiled for other contingencies or later mega attacks? 3/3
May 26, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Alternately, has production run into bottlenecks we haven't detected? Or are cruise missiles not achieving as cost-efficient penetration rates as ballistics & Shaheds for strategic raids on Ukraine, so more are being stockpiled for other contingencies or later mega attacks? 3/3
That wouldn't be my first guess as just one bomber can carry 6+ missiles, though if you assume very large missile raids are needed to oversaturate defenses, number of bombers needed scales quickly. Than there's the Black Sea Fleet, which could launch Kalibrs even while essentially in port... 2/3
May 26, 2025 at 7:08 PM
That wouldn't be my first guess as just one bomber can carry 6+ missiles, though if you assume very large missile raids are needed to oversaturate defenses, number of bombers needed scales quickly. Than there's the Black Sea Fleet, which could launch Kalibrs even while essentially in port... 2/3
Pro or anti Modi or Zardari is not relevant to determining what happened. But so far you have only attacked, denied or ignored anything that doesn't fit your preferred narrative, so pointing to some evidence of possible PAF losses of Mirage and JF-17 will not convince you. I'll leave it at that.
May 24, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Pro or anti Modi or Zardari is not relevant to determining what happened. But so far you have only attacked, denied or ignored anything that doesn't fit your preferred narrative, so pointing to some evidence of possible PAF losses of Mirage and JF-17 will not convince you. I'll leave it at that.
Yes buildings can be repaired, but imagery shows PAF units lost ground-based SAM elements, radars & on-ground aircraft: C-130(s?) ablaze, damaged in-hangar F-16 and likely also Saab 2000. PAF itself reported loss of squadron commander. Finally some wreckage suggests downing of PAF Mirage & JF-17.2/2
May 24, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Yes buildings can be repaired, but imagery shows PAF units lost ground-based SAM elements, radars & on-ground aircraft: C-130(s?) ablaze, damaged in-hangar F-16 and likely also Saab 2000. PAF itself reported loss of squadron commander. Finally some wreckage suggests downing of PAF Mirage & JF-17.2/2
I did notice their open-top transports strongly evoked Germany's mainstay World War II APC, the SdKfz.251 half track.
May 24, 2025 at 3:37 AM
I did notice their open-top transports strongly evoked Germany's mainstay World War II APC, the SdKfz.251 half track.
Originally, this piece had a bit more on the design of the other worldly Boeing Bird of Prey, a flying manned stealth demonstrator named after a Star Trek spaceship, tested in Area 51. Interesting trivia: Boeing's Bird likely also incorporated optical stealth tech, like the Klingon original! 2/2
May 21, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Originally, this piece had a bit more on the design of the other worldly Boeing Bird of Prey, a flying manned stealth demonstrator named after a Star Trek spaceship, tested in Area 51. Interesting trivia: Boeing's Bird likely also incorporated optical stealth tech, like the Klingon original! 2/2
Not a long series to read & has great audiobook adaptation! Most people here dislike Dark Empire though--it rebooted the Empire/Emperor before Ep9 did, and weirdly disrupted arc of New Republic's rise. I liked it though, evocatively illustrated, epic battles, Nar Shadda(!) and personal stakes.
May 16, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Not a long series to read & has great audiobook adaptation! Most people here dislike Dark Empire though--it rebooted the Empire/Emperor before Ep9 did, and weirdly disrupted arc of New Republic's rise. I liked it though, evocatively illustrated, epic battles, Nar Shadda(!) and personal stakes.
Well, V-wings were incepted in the Dark Empire comic first, deployed by space-capable carriers at Battle of Calamari which then inspired the videogame. (Pic isn't best, but a V-Wing is visible top left.) Very rare to have air/sea/space battle for Star Wars...
May 16, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Well, V-wings were incepted in the Dark Empire comic first, deployed by space-capable carriers at Battle of Calamari which then inspired the videogame. (Pic isn't best, but a V-Wing is visible top left.) Very rare to have air/sea/space battle for Star Wars...
Still relatively little imagery confirming manned losses. Here's a new one: Wreck appears to be AL-31F turbofan from Indian Su-30MKI. Not sure if loss is from May 7 or later. India also activated its fleet of old Jaguar jets firing powerful Rampage ballistic missiles. 4/5
May 12, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Still relatively little imagery confirming manned losses. Here's a new one: Wreck appears to be AL-31F turbofan from Indian Su-30MKI. Not sure if loss is from May 7 or later. India also activated its fleet of old Jaguar jets firing powerful Rampage ballistic missiles. 4/5
An interesting image apparently from targeting pod on Pakistani F-16 of an Indian Harops kamikaze drone, traditionally specialized in hitting air defenses. My impression is that IAF surge launched most of its 120+ Harops on day 2, causing significant damage. 3/5
May 12, 2025 at 1:48 AM
An interesting image apparently from targeting pod on Pakistani F-16 of an Indian Harops kamikaze drone, traditionally specialized in hitting air defenses. My impression is that IAF surge launched most of its 120+ Harops on day 2, causing significant damage. 3/5
IAF seemingly resumed manned airstrikes May 9-10. Both sides made many claims of aircraft and drone kills of many types by ground-based AD, air-to-air & ground strikes. Verification still hard. But indications India maybe destroyed/damaged Pakistani Saab 2000 AWACS and C-130 aircraft on ground. 2/5
May 12, 2025 at 1:48 AM
IAF seemingly resumed manned airstrikes May 9-10. Both sides made many claims of aircraft and drone kills of many types by ground-based AD, air-to-air & ground strikes. Verification still hard. But indications India maybe destroyed/damaged Pakistani Saab 2000 AWACS and C-130 aircraft on ground. 2/5
After India's costly early morning May 7 air raid (2-4 jets lost), India & Pakistan exchanged missile & drone strikes. I've seen more evidence of damage to Pakistan than to India. This may have created gaps in Pakistan's air defense. (below: allegedly, image of KO'd Pakistani HQ-9 SAM launcher.) 1/5
May 12, 2025 at 1:48 AM
After India's costly early morning May 7 air raid (2-4 jets lost), India & Pakistan exchanged missile & drone strikes. I've seen more evidence of damage to Pakistan than to India. This may have created gaps in Pakistan's air defense. (below: allegedly, image of KO'd Pakistani HQ-9 SAM launcher.) 1/5