Next week NZ will pitch to foreign investors to help fill our infrastructure deficit. It may help, but we must get our house in order first. Cutting investment spend and asking others to invest instead seems fraught.

Thoughts over at LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/posts/eaqub_...

And most of this decline in GDP per capita is because business profits have slumped. Worker compensation has gone sideways.

GDP data for Dec-23 confirmed what we knew for over a year - NZ is in recession. The economy is about making more people better off. We're doing the more people bit, not the better off bit. GDP per capita has been falling since a peak in Sep-22.

The NZ shifts are broadly in line with global agriculture price trends. Which have eased from peak at start of Russia-Ukraine war, but remain much higher than pre-pandemic times. Suggests food prices won't get much cheaper, but should not rise too much in the next year. (3/3)

The rate of food price inflation is moderating. The levels vs inflation rate is quite telling here. Sometimes annual inflation rates don't tell the full story. (2/3)

Oct-23 Food Price Index from
@Stats_NZ
shows prices have been going sideways since mid-year. But not really getting cheaper. (1/3)

NZ house building surge is over? Planning rules, infrastructure and low interest rates (not necessarily in that order) really helped during the covid years. Rising immigration/population growth and slowing supply will increase housing costs and housing insecurity.

@christinahood.bsky.social on closer look, I am surprised NZ insurance premiums haven't increased as much as countries like Australia and UK. Over last 20 years average insurance premiums have increased by an additional 40% in Australia & 60% in UK! More to dig into...

Surge in insurance price really quite worrying. Flooding & cyclone have really increased prices. Expect more insurance price increases, insurance retreat, more exclusions, and falling coverage. Policy response still ad hoc and obsessed with making owners whole - unsustainable 3/3

Signs that both the supply crunch and demand increase overlap of last year has eased. Positive signs for RBNZ to pause. But rising rents show slowing housing supply & rising migration will hurt some people too. Very much a mixed bag. 2/3

On TV1 Breakfast this morning talked about sep-23 inflation. Which has moderated in line with global trends. 1/3

Sep-23 rents show rents are local. eg Auckland rents become (relatively) more affordable when population declined (during border closure). Rents are driven by ability to pay and relative shortage not costs. www.treasury.govt.nz/publications...

Food price inflation is still very high (up 8% over the past year) but moderating in line with broader global agriculture commodity price trends from nearly a year ago. Some local effects too with cyclones and weather increasing fresh fruit and veg prices. Lags in the economy are very long.

In prep for an interview, Australia has a more progressive income tax regime than NZ. It has a 0% tax rate threshold for the first $18.2k and the top tax rate of 45% kicks in at $180k.

I mean prices are still crazy and there much more work to be done. But I am trying to see silver linings…

GDP data today shows no technical recession. But flat GDP per capita for a year is why its feels so grumpy. Looks much like what is happening across the Tasman.

In report for Netsafe found cyber bullying harm of $1b, online fraud perhaps as high as $470m. Worryingly more people are experiencing harm online. More in the report on Netsafe site and herald story($) www.nzherald.co.nz/business/net...