Sean Gailmard
@sean-gailmard.bsky.social
Herman Royer Professor of Political Economy, University of California - Berkeley, Department of Political Science
The OG Glen Campbell version is my favorite song of all time so I am grateful to learn of this cover
October 23, 2025 at 10:40 PM
The OG Glen Campbell version is my favorite song of all time so I am grateful to learn of this cover
Hello. Do you sense a tension between our field's support for democracy, and our widespread (in some subfieds) doubt for the reasoning capacity of voters? If they're so stupid, what are we defending?
October 20, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Hello. Do you sense a tension between our field's support for democracy, and our widespread (in some subfieds) doubt for the reasoning capacity of voters? If they're so stupid, what are we defending?
However it centralized control over state resources under whichever party runs the state. Resources are no longer spread around counties run by competing parties. California policy is therefore more programmatic and attached to that party’s agenda.
October 19, 2025 at 7:11 PM
However it centralized control over state resources under whichever party runs the state. Resources are no longer spread around counties run by competing parties. California policy is therefore more programmatic and attached to that party’s agenda.
So what you're saying is only outcomes matter
October 15, 2025 at 4:47 PM
So what you're saying is only outcomes matter
Interesting paper, thanks for linking it. I find it hard to know what it means for policy going forward. The wage/employment effects are estimated under a specific immigration regime; I am unsure how to extrapolate them to a different, greatly expanded regime.
September 5, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Interesting paper, thanks for linking it. I find it hard to know what it means for policy going forward. The wage/employment effects are estimated under a specific immigration regime; I am unsure how to extrapolate them to a different, greatly expanded regime.
If we "do politics," it seems undignified to be surprised when they do it back.
August 21, 2025 at 8:17 PM
If we "do politics," it seems undignified to be surprised when they do it back.
It's unpleasant for our self concept but the university is the agent of the state. Especially the public university, but given their funding model, private research universities too. If they're not useful to the state, we should expect conflict and curtailment.
August 21, 2025 at 8:13 PM
It's unpleasant for our self concept but the university is the agent of the state. Especially the public university, but given their funding model, private research universities too. If they're not useful to the state, we should expect conflict and curtailment.
In that world, if you move Dem candidates further left on L-R position and make no other changes, you will lose more.
August 20, 2025 at 11:13 PM
In that world, if you move Dem candidates further left on L-R position and make no other changes, you will lose more.
Or maybe there is a host of interlocking factors, and if you shift L-R ideology far from center, you have to improve other factors to compensate. Random victory among viable candidates in a primary doesn't address this.
August 20, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Or maybe there is a host of interlocking factors, and if you shift L-R ideology far from center, you have to improve other factors to compensate. Random victory among viable candidates in a primary doesn't address this.
Relevance being, the reduced-form null effect of L-R position is consistent with many different structural models. The tempting inference for left-maxxers is that the r.f. null is a structural 0 on candidate moderation in voter utility functions.
Maybe...
Maybe...
August 20, 2025 at 11:07 PM
Relevance being, the reduced-form null effect of L-R position is consistent with many different structural models. The tempting inference for left-maxxers is that the r.f. null is a structural 0 on candidate moderation in voter utility functions.
Maybe...
Maybe...
Gon spam you til you reply bro sorry
August 20, 2025 at 10:49 PM
Gon spam you til you reply bro sorry
Also your list doesn't include reasons why moderation doesn't matter, it includes reasons why we measure it wrong.
August 20, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Also your list doesn't include reasons why moderation doesn't matter, it includes reasons why we measure it wrong.
Perhaps you exclude it from a list of "plausible mechanisms" not because are unaware it's a mechanism, but you find it implausible. Not sure why that would be, however.
August 20, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Perhaps you exclude it from a list of "plausible mechanisms" not because are unaware it's a mechanism, but you find it implausible. Not sure why that would be, however.
Going to say again, another mechanism is that viable candidates maximize Pr(win), and observed positions are close-to-optimally calibrated to their jurisdictions. Null effect = 0 effect of marginal change = first order condition satisfied.
August 20, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Going to say again, another mechanism is that viable candidates maximize Pr(win), and observed positions are close-to-optimally calibrated to their jurisdictions. Null effect = 0 effect of marginal change = first order condition satisfied.
There is an external validity problem built into extrapolating the result of one person's optimal choice to utility that another would experience from the same choice.
August 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
There is an external validity problem built into extrapolating the result of one person's optimal choice to utility that another would experience from the same choice.
If you love shrimp and eat 100 at the buffet, you get about the same jollies from eating 99 or 101. If I don't love shrimp but eat 100 at the buffet, I get a definite increase in jollies from eating 99 instead and a definite decrease from eating 101.
August 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
If you love shrimp and eat 100 at the buffet, you get about the same jollies from eating 99 or 101. If I don't love shrimp but eat 100 at the buffet, I get a definite increase in jollies from eating 99 instead and a definite decrease from eating 101.
I further don't understand why anyone is comfortable drawing general conclusions from RD or DD models. Candidate position is a choice variable. 0 effect from small changes is what you expect if it is chosen optimally. You are measuring (successful) optimization by the candidates in question.
August 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
I further don't understand why anyone is comfortable drawing general conclusions from RD or DD models. Candidate position is a choice variable. 0 effect from small changes is what you expect if it is chosen optimally. You are measuring (successful) optimization by the candidates in question.
I don't understand how you know their model is biased (or they know it about yours). You just know that they are different.
August 16, 2025 at 4:46 PM
I don't understand how you know their model is biased (or they know it about yours). You just know that they are different.
In your view, would that move lead the Trump Admin to back down and restore funding? If not, how much should UCLA or the system be willing to pay, for the principle of fighting back and saying no?
August 9, 2025 at 1:25 AM
In your view, would that move lead the Trump Admin to back down and restore funding? If not, how much should UCLA or the system be willing to pay, for the principle of fighting back and saying no?
Pluto was once a planet
July 29, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Pluto was once a planet