Scott
@scottinlondon.bsky.social
New, so might look like a bot! Fed up with X, so here I am.
I like evidence based politics, and avoid echo chambers. Love football, animals, and dry humour.
I like evidence based politics, and avoid echo chambers. Love football, animals, and dry humour.
You've lost me. Why could it not work like that?
Obviously I'm assuming there's been no authentic movement in that period. Big assumption or course but that's what could then explain to different leaning MoE polls, at least theoretically.
Obviously I'm assuming there's been no authentic movement in that period. Big assumption or course but that's what could then explain to different leaning MoE polls, at least theoretically.
August 21, 2025 at 1:09 AM
You've lost me. Why could it not work like that?
Obviously I'm assuming there's been no authentic movement in that period. Big assumption or course but that's what could then explain to different leaning MoE polls, at least theoretically.
Obviously I'm assuming there's been no authentic movement in that period. Big assumption or course but that's what could then explain to different leaning MoE polls, at least theoretically.
Could be two margin of errors colliding.
E.g. 18% (-2 out) & 22% (+2 out.)
E.g. 18% (-2 out) & 22% (+2 out.)
August 13, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Could be two margin of errors colliding.
E.g. 18% (-2 out) & 22% (+2 out.)
E.g. 18% (-2 out) & 22% (+2 out.)
I voted to Remain but that works both ways.
About 37-38% voted Leave.
But only 34-35% voted Remain.
Or 65% voted Leave/didn't vote remain.
Or 62% voted Remain/didn't vote Leave.
Ultimately it's the voters that decide. Not those who can't be bothered to vote or are apathetic.
About 37-38% voted Leave.
But only 34-35% voted Remain.
Or 65% voted Leave/didn't vote remain.
Or 62% voted Remain/didn't vote Leave.
Ultimately it's the voters that decide. Not those who can't be bothered to vote or are apathetic.
August 8, 2025 at 4:54 PM
I voted to Remain but that works both ways.
About 37-38% voted Leave.
But only 34-35% voted Remain.
Or 65% voted Leave/didn't vote remain.
Or 62% voted Remain/didn't vote Leave.
Ultimately it's the voters that decide. Not those who can't be bothered to vote or are apathetic.
About 37-38% voted Leave.
But only 34-35% voted Remain.
Or 65% voted Leave/didn't vote remain.
Or 62% voted Remain/didn't vote Leave.
Ultimately it's the voters that decide. Not those who can't be bothered to vote or are apathetic.
Yeah I get that. The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015 and 95% of the seats. FPTP sucks.
But as you say, the SNP got well under one-third of the vote, and this has significantly set them back and understandably so.
But as you say, the SNP got well under one-third of the vote, and this has significantly set them back and understandably so.
August 7, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Yeah I get that. The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015 and 95% of the seats. FPTP sucks.
But as you say, the SNP got well under one-third of the vote, and this has significantly set them back and understandably so.
But as you say, the SNP got well under one-third of the vote, and this has significantly set them back and understandably so.
Yeah I get that, that's why I used the word "strengthen". Labour winning in Scotland and the SNP being almost wiped out in 2024 didn't advance the Independence cause I'm sure you'd agree.
August 7, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Yeah I get that, that's why I used the word "strengthen". Labour winning in Scotland and the SNP being almost wiped out in 2024 didn't advance the Independence cause I'm sure you'd agree.
Depends on the pollster. YouGov have RefUK on 22% in Scotland and that's the latest poll in Scotland.
I don't think Reform winning would benefit any UK nation. Reform wouldn't grant Scotland a referendum and besides I don't think Reform will last long in government anyway.
I don't think Reform winning would benefit any UK nation. Reform wouldn't grant Scotland a referendum and besides I don't think Reform will last long in government anyway.
August 7, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Depends on the pollster. YouGov have RefUK on 22% in Scotland and that's the latest poll in Scotland.
I don't think Reform winning would benefit any UK nation. Reform wouldn't grant Scotland a referendum and besides I don't think Reform will last long in government anyway.
I don't think Reform winning would benefit any UK nation. Reform wouldn't grant Scotland a referendum and besides I don't think Reform will last long in government anyway.
Difficult for Scotland at the moment to get that when Labour comfortably won the 2024 General Election in Scotland. They'll have a strengthened mandate for Indy2 if they win the devolved elections next year.
August 7, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Difficult for Scotland at the moment to get that when Labour comfortably won the 2024 General Election in Scotland. They'll have a strengthened mandate for Indy2 if they win the devolved elections next year.
They're not registered with the electoral commission yet, so it would be a double hypothetical if it was polled. (the other hypothetical is if there was an election tomorrow!)
I'm sure as soon as they're registered, they'll appear in all of the opinion polls.
I'm sure as soon as they're registered, they'll appear in all of the opinion polls.
August 7, 2025 at 1:19 PM
They're not registered with the electoral commission yet, so it would be a double hypothetical if it was polled. (the other hypothetical is if there was an election tomorrow!)
I'm sure as soon as they're registered, they'll appear in all of the opinion polls.
I'm sure as soon as they're registered, they'll appear in all of the opinion polls.
Soon?!
Why soon and not now? Or years ago for that matter!
Why soon and not now? Or years ago for that matter!
August 4, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Soon?!
Why soon and not now? Or years ago for that matter!
Why soon and not now? Or years ago for that matter!
If that's what they want, sure.
But until Scotland gets its second independence referendum what do you think is the fairest way of providing Scottish Westminster representation?
But until Scotland gets its second independence referendum what do you think is the fairest way of providing Scottish Westminster representation?
August 4, 2025 at 9:59 PM
If that's what they want, sure.
But until Scotland gets its second independence referendum what do you think is the fairest way of providing Scottish Westminster representation?
But until Scotland gets its second independence referendum what do you think is the fairest way of providing Scottish Westminster representation?
So you agree it would be less democratic then. In which case what is the alternative?
August 4, 2025 at 7:35 PM
So you agree it would be less democratic then. In which case what is the alternative?
Reform is very unlikely to win the plurality of votes in Scotland on that I agree. But in percentages, it won't be drastically different. Take Brexit - 38% of Scots voted Leave compared to 53% of English voters. Not worlds a part.
August 3, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Reform is very unlikely to win the plurality of votes in Scotland on that I agree. But in percentages, it won't be drastically different. Take Brexit - 38% of Scots voted Leave compared to 53% of English voters. Not worlds a part.
Well, not really. Scotland has a considerable impact on the balance of power. In 2010 it was Scotland that denied the Tories a majority. In 2017 it was Scotland that denied the Tories a majority.
Of course as 10% of the UK population you get 10% of the votes - only fair.
Of course as 10% of the UK population you get 10% of the votes - only fair.
August 3, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Well, not really. Scotland has a considerable impact on the balance of power. In 2010 it was Scotland that denied the Tories a majority. In 2017 it was Scotland that denied the Tories a majority.
Of course as 10% of the UK population you get 10% of the votes - only fair.
Of course as 10% of the UK population you get 10% of the votes - only fair.
He's not proving your point at all.
He's saying that the gap between what % Ref is polling in Scotland is actually quite small and seemingly shrinking.
And you're wrong about England wanting Reform. 30% is less than one-third of voters.
We do need to 'reform' our electoral system though.
He's saying that the gap between what % Ref is polling in Scotland is actually quite small and seemingly shrinking.
And you're wrong about England wanting Reform. 30% is less than one-third of voters.
We do need to 'reform' our electoral system though.
August 3, 2025 at 8:00 PM
He's not proving your point at all.
He's saying that the gap between what % Ref is polling in Scotland is actually quite small and seemingly shrinking.
And you're wrong about England wanting Reform. 30% is less than one-third of voters.
We do need to 'reform' our electoral system though.
He's saying that the gap between what % Ref is polling in Scotland is actually quite small and seemingly shrinking.
And you're wrong about England wanting Reform. 30% is less than one-third of voters.
We do need to 'reform' our electoral system though.
What do you mean as usual? Scotland wanted Labour and it got Labour.
England doesn't want Reform that's why they're polling on 30%.
Westminster needs PR.
England doesn't want Reform that's why they're polling on 30%.
Westminster needs PR.
August 3, 2025 at 7:55 PM
What do you mean as usual? Scotland wanted Labour and it got Labour.
England doesn't want Reform that's why they're polling on 30%.
Westminster needs PR.
England doesn't want Reform that's why they're polling on 30%.
Westminster needs PR.
It doesn't benefit Reform it benefits democracy. The fact Labour's projected vote share has halved and Reform's has surged isn't the fault of PR.
The thing that worries me is Reform getting 28-33% of the Westminster vote & getting a majority in 2029.
Westminster needs Welsh style PR ASAP!
The thing that worries me is Reform getting 28-33% of the Westminster vote & getting a majority in 2029.
Westminster needs Welsh style PR ASAP!
August 3, 2025 at 12:50 AM
It doesn't benefit Reform it benefits democracy. The fact Labour's projected vote share has halved and Reform's has surged isn't the fault of PR.
The thing that worries me is Reform getting 28-33% of the Westminster vote & getting a majority in 2029.
Westminster needs Welsh style PR ASAP!
The thing that worries me is Reform getting 28-33% of the Westminster vote & getting a majority in 2029.
Westminster needs Welsh style PR ASAP!
That's why I doubt Starmer will do it. A principled politician would though. FPTP is completely unfit for purpose, and frankly a disgrace in a multiparty 21st century democracy.
July 29, 2025 at 5:51 PM
That's why I doubt Starmer will do it. A principled politician would though. FPTP is completely unfit for purpose, and frankly a disgrace in a multiparty 21st century democracy.
Yes but not at Westminster level, which would be an enormous change. It was in the Tory manifesto I believe.
As you say our constitution is unwritten, so I don't think we should always take it literally.
As you say our constitution is unwritten, so I don't think we should always take it literally.
July 29, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Yes but not at Westminster level, which would be an enormous change. It was in the Tory manifesto I believe.
As you say our constitution is unwritten, so I don't think we should always take it literally.
As you say our constitution is unwritten, so I don't think we should always take it literally.
No they wouldn't. But how's this applicable to Labour?
There's no law, and I never suggested there was. But I think imposing it when it wasn't in their manifesto might make it easier to be undone as it would be seen as having little legitimacy.
There's no law, and I never suggested there was. But I think imposing it when it wasn't in their manifesto might make it easier to be undone as it would be seen as having little legitimacy.
July 29, 2025 at 5:46 PM
No they wouldn't. But how's this applicable to Labour?
There's no law, and I never suggested there was. But I think imposing it when it wasn't in their manifesto might make it easier to be undone as it would be seen as having little legitimacy.
There's no law, and I never suggested there was. But I think imposing it when it wasn't in their manifesto might make it easier to be undone as it would be seen as having little legitimacy.
Glad you took the time to enjoy reading my profile. 😊
July 29, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Glad you took the time to enjoy reading my profile. 😊
No I don't think purging the Left is connected to Reform at all. I think them losing votes to the Greens, Lib Dems, Plaid, Workers Party, SNP, & won't vote has however indirectly helped Reform due to a split left and liberal vote.
July 29, 2025 at 3:17 PM
No I don't think purging the Left is connected to Reform at all. I think them losing votes to the Greens, Lib Dems, Plaid, Workers Party, SNP, & won't vote has however indirectly helped Reform due to a split left and liberal vote.
Priti Patel shouldn't be used as an argument for nearly anything though!
I think the sheer scale of the change would require a referendum. Reform support PR so it would be hard for them to argue against it on the basis that FPTP has suddenly benefited them.
I think the sheer scale of the change would require a referendum. Reform support PR so it would be hard for them to argue against it on the basis that FPTP has suddenly benefited them.
July 29, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Priti Patel shouldn't be used as an argument for nearly anything though!
I think the sheer scale of the change would require a referendum. Reform support PR so it would be hard for them to argue against it on the basis that FPTP has suddenly benefited them.
I think the sheer scale of the change would require a referendum. Reform support PR so it would be hard for them to argue against it on the basis that FPTP has suddenly benefited them.
Labour need to have a referendum on PR before next election. FPTP could massively benefits Reform in a particularly unfair way as their votes are more spread, as left and liberal voters disproportionately stack up.
It would be outrageous if they won a majority on 28-33% of the vote.
It would be outrageous if they won a majority on 28-33% of the vote.
July 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Labour need to have a referendum on PR before next election. FPTP could massively benefits Reform in a particularly unfair way as their votes are more spread, as left and liberal voters disproportionately stack up.
It would be outrageous if they won a majority on 28-33% of the vote.
It would be outrageous if they won a majority on 28-33% of the vote.
Sorry to be dumb but what do you mean by alt text exactly? What disabled people are you talking about?
July 28, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Sorry to be dumb but what do you mean by alt text exactly? What disabled people are you talking about?