ScotiaStat Hockey
@scotiastat.bsky.social
Providing NHL Free Agent contract projections which can be found for free using the link below.
Work has been mentioned on TSN!
https://linktr.ee/scotiastat
Work has been mentioned on TSN!
https://linktr.ee/scotiastat
Pinned
Below are my contract projection error numbers compared to Evolving Hockey.
My MAE is a little lower and R^2 is a little higher on both UFAs and RFAs. I'm not sure if they included goalies in their numbers so I included mine with and without goalies just in case. #HockeyX
My MAE is a little lower and R^2 is a little higher on both UFAs and RFAs. I'm not sure if they included goalies in their numbers so I included mine with and without goalies just in case. #HockeyX
Below are my contract projection error numbers compared to Evolving Hockey.
My MAE is a little lower and R^2 is a little higher on both UFAs and RFAs. I'm not sure if they included goalies in their numbers so I included mine with and without goalies just in case. #HockeyX
My MAE is a little lower and R^2 is a little higher on both UFAs and RFAs. I'm not sure if they included goalies in their numbers so I included mine with and without goalies just in case. #HockeyX
August 2, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Below are my contract projection error numbers compared to Evolving Hockey.
My MAE is a little lower and R^2 is a little higher on both UFAs and RFAs. I'm not sure if they included goalies in their numbers so I included mine with and without goalies just in case. #HockeyX
My MAE is a little lower and R^2 is a little higher on both UFAs and RFAs. I'm not sure if they included goalies in their numbers so I included mine with and without goalies just in case. #HockeyX
Avs resign Brock Nelson to a 3 year deal worth $7.5M AAV.
This UFA market is gonna be very interesting on July 1. Lots of potential overpays coming.
Solid signing by the #GoAvsGo on this one though.
This UFA market is gonna be very interesting on July 1. Lots of potential overpays coming.
Solid signing by the #GoAvsGo on this one though.
June 4, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Avs resign Brock Nelson to a 3 year deal worth $7.5M AAV.
This UFA market is gonna be very interesting on July 1. Lots of potential overpays coming.
Solid signing by the #GoAvsGo on this one though.
This UFA market is gonna be very interesting on July 1. Lots of potential overpays coming.
Solid signing by the #GoAvsGo on this one though.
Reposted by ScotiaStat Hockey
stephengeary.shinyapps.io/draftsim/
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
NHL 2025 Entry Draft Simulation
stephengeary.shinyapps.io
May 31, 2025 at 6:49 PM
stephengeary.shinyapps.io/draftsim/
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
Tyson Foerster signed a 2 year $3.75M contracted extension which comes in right at the expected cost for a 2 year deal. Good value for the #LetsGoFlyers on this signing.
May 30, 2025 at 2:02 AM
Tyson Foerster signed a 2 year $3.75M contracted extension which comes in right at the expected cost for a 2 year deal. Good value for the #LetsGoFlyers on this signing.
📊All projections have been updated, including 2025 Extensions, 2025 Free Agents and 2026 Extensions! There is also now a page that documents the change in dollars since the last projection 📈📉#HockeyX
Go take a look at over 650 contract projections ‼️‼️
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Go take a look at over 650 contract projections ‼️‼️
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
ScotiaStat 2025 Projections
docs.google.com
April 24, 2025 at 10:22 PM
📊All projections have been updated, including 2025 Extensions, 2025 Free Agents and 2026 Extensions! There is also now a page that documents the change in dollars since the last projection 📈📉#HockeyX
Go take a look at over 650 contract projections ‼️‼️
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Go take a look at over 650 contract projections ‼️‼️
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
This contract makes sense from a comparables standpoint. I had him projected for this exact amount, which aligns with some of the UFA defenseman from last season, such as Brady Skjei, Brandon Montour and Matt Roy.
#GoJetsGo
#GoJetsGo
April 17, 2025 at 11:48 PM
This contract makes sense from a comparables standpoint. I had him projected for this exact amount, which aligns with some of the UFA defenseman from last season, such as Brady Skjei, Brandon Montour and Matt Roy.
#GoJetsGo
#GoJetsGo
Woww #ALLCAPS, did not see this coming.
Chychrun has been good, having a bounce back year this year. But established players in a contract year generally play better and struggle to replicate this success long term. Not saying he won't, just saying it might be difficult to.
Chychrun has been good, having a bounce back year this year. But established players in a contract year generally play better and struggle to replicate this success long term. Not saying he won't, just saying it might be difficult to.
March 25, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Woww #ALLCAPS, did not see this coming.
Chychrun has been good, having a bounce back year this year. But established players in a contract year generally play better and struggle to replicate this success long term. Not saying he won't, just saying it might be difficult to.
Chychrun has been good, having a bounce back year this year. But established players in a contract year generally play better and struggle to replicate this success long term. Not saying he won't, just saying it might be difficult to.
Aliaksei Protas has been outstanding for #ALLCAPS this year. He has been one of the top forwards in almost every statistical category tracked by my model.
If he can perform at this level for the next few seasons, his contract will easily be one of the best in the league.
If he can perform at this level for the next few seasons, his contract will easily be one of the best in the league.
March 19, 2025 at 1:15 AM
Aliaksei Protas has been outstanding for #ALLCAPS this year. He has been one of the top forwards in almost every statistical category tracked by my model.
If he can perform at this level for the next few seasons, his contract will easily be one of the best in the league.
If he can perform at this level for the next few seasons, his contract will easily be one of the best in the league.
Have to be happy for #VegasBorn Adin Hill getting a long term deal this big. Had him projected at almost $7.5M on a 6 year deal.
Also of note: $400K more than #ALLCAPS Logan Thompson on the same term 👀
#HockeyX
Also of note: $400K more than #ALLCAPS Logan Thompson on the same term 👀
#HockeyX
March 14, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Have to be happy for #VegasBorn Adin Hill getting a long term deal this big. Had him projected at almost $7.5M on a 6 year deal.
Also of note: $400K more than #ALLCAPS Logan Thompson on the same term 👀
#HockeyX
Also of note: $400K more than #ALLCAPS Logan Thompson on the same term 👀
#HockeyX
Reposted by ScotiaStat Hockey
Is there any interest in a public hockey analytics competition?
Here's me thinking out loud. Let me know what you think and please help share the message.
hockey-statistics.com/2025/03/10/h...
Here's me thinking out loud. Let me know what you think and please help share the message.
hockey-statistics.com/2025/03/10/h...
Hockey Analytics Competition?
The author proposes establishing a public hockey analytics competition and forum, emphasizing the need for peer review and open data sharing. They envision a competition post-NHL season covering va…
hockey-statistics.com
March 10, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Is there any interest in a public hockey analytics competition?
Here's me thinking out loud. Let me know what you think and please help share the message.
hockey-statistics.com/2025/03/10/h...
Here's me thinking out loud. Let me know what you think and please help share the message.
hockey-statistics.com/2025/03/10/h...
🚨 Introducing the ScotiaStat NHL Player and Goalie WARs 🚨
Recently, I have been working to make an NHL player rating system using 100% public data from @MoneyPuckdotcom & @PuckIQ. These ratings are measured by Wins Above Replacement or WAR.
sites.google.com/view/scotias...
Recently, I have been working to make an NHL player rating system using 100% public data from @MoneyPuckdotcom & @PuckIQ. These ratings are measured by Wins Above Replacement or WAR.
sites.google.com/view/scotias...
March 10, 2025 at 6:41 PM
🚨 Introducing the ScotiaStat NHL Player and Goalie WARs 🚨
Recently, I have been working to make an NHL player rating system using 100% public data from @MoneyPuckdotcom & @PuckIQ. These ratings are measured by Wins Above Replacement or WAR.
sites.google.com/view/scotias...
Recently, I have been working to make an NHL player rating system using 100% public data from @MoneyPuckdotcom & @PuckIQ. These ratings are measured by Wins Above Replacement or WAR.
sites.google.com/view/scotias...
Drew O'Connor of the #Canucks has signed a 2 year, $2.5M extension. The deal comes in a bit higher than expected. Had him projected for $2M on a 2 year contract.
February 18, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Drew O'Connor of the #Canucks has signed a 2 year, $2.5M extension. The deal comes in a bit higher than expected. Had him projected for $2M on a 2 year contract.
Sam Steel has signed a 2 year, $2.1M extension with the Dallas Stars. I had him projected for 2 years, $2.06M. This extension is exactly what was expected for #TexasHockey
February 14, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Sam Steel has signed a 2 year, $2.1M extension with the Dallas Stars. I had him projected for 2 years, $2.06M. This extension is exactly what was expected for #TexasHockey
Mark Friedman is a pending UFA who would be expected to sign a 1 year deal for close to the league minimum.
#Smashville #HockeyX
#Smashville #HockeyX
February 8, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Mark Friedman is a pending UFA who would be expected to sign a 1 year deal for close to the league minimum.
#Smashville #HockeyX
#Smashville #HockeyX
Ran the first batch of projections for extension eligible players on July 1st and Lane Hutson... WOW
This is a huge projection given he has 56 career games to his name. If he can even get 30-40% better on D in the next few years this will be a STEAL.
#GoHabsGo #HockeyX #NHL
This is a huge projection given he has 56 career games to his name. If he can even get 30-40% better on D in the next few years this will be a STEAL.
#GoHabsGo #HockeyX #NHL
February 6, 2025 at 8:03 PM
#Canucks wasted no time signing Pettersson. I had him projected for 6 years, $6.18M AAV. The trade protection likely helped lower the AAV by a little bit. Vancouver now has Hughes, Hronek, Pettersson and Myers locked up for another two more years after this one.
#HockeyX #NHL
#HockeyX #NHL
February 6, 2025 at 11:51 AM
New #Canucks Marcus Pettersson and Drew O'Connor will both expire as UFAs this offseason. Pettersson is an above average puck moving, offensive defenseman. O'Connor is a depth lower line forward.
Vancouver has a lot of cap space this offseason, $26.8M according to @puckpedia.com
Vancouver has a lot of cap space this offseason, $26.8M according to @puckpedia.com
February 1, 2025 at 4:36 PM
New #Canucks Marcus Pettersson and Drew O'Connor will both expire as UFAs this offseason. Pettersson is an above average puck moving, offensive defenseman. O'Connor is a depth lower line forward.
Vancouver has a lot of cap space this offseason, $26.8M according to @puckpedia.com
Vancouver has a lot of cap space this offseason, $26.8M according to @puckpedia.com
My Projections for the top 4 RFAs below.
Vilardi: 4x$6.47M
Rossi: 6x$7.29M
Johnston: 6x$7.77M
Peterka: 5x$6.55M
#NHL #HockeyX #GoJetsGo #mnwild #TexasHockey #sabrehood
Vilardi: 4x$6.47M
Rossi: 6x$7.29M
Johnston: 6x$7.77M
Peterka: 5x$6.55M
#NHL #HockeyX #GoJetsGo #mnwild #TexasHockey #sabrehood
February 1, 2025 at 4:35 PM
My Projections for the top 4 RFAs below.
Vilardi: 4x$6.47M
Rossi: 6x$7.29M
Johnston: 6x$7.77M
Peterka: 5x$6.55M
#NHL #HockeyX #GoJetsGo #mnwild #TexasHockey #sabrehood
Vilardi: 4x$6.47M
Rossi: 6x$7.29M
Johnston: 6x$7.77M
Peterka: 5x$6.55M
#NHL #HockeyX #GoJetsGo #mnwild #TexasHockey #sabrehood
My projections for the top 4 UFAs.
Marner: 8x$12.14M
Rantanen: 7x$13.69M
Ehlers: 6x$7.18M
Duchene: 2x$4.58M
#HockeyX #NHL #LeafsForever #RaiseUp #GoJetsGo #TexasHockey
Marner: 8x$12.14M
Rantanen: 7x$13.69M
Ehlers: 6x$7.18M
Duchene: 2x$4.58M
#HockeyX #NHL #LeafsForever #RaiseUp #GoJetsGo #TexasHockey
February 1, 2025 at 4:35 PM
My projections for the top 4 UFAs.
Marner: 8x$12.14M
Rantanen: 7x$13.69M
Ehlers: 6x$7.18M
Duchene: 2x$4.58M
#HockeyX #NHL #LeafsForever #RaiseUp #GoJetsGo #TexasHockey
Marner: 8x$12.14M
Rantanen: 7x$13.69M
Ehlers: 6x$7.18M
Duchene: 2x$4.58M
#HockeyX #NHL #LeafsForever #RaiseUp #GoJetsGo #TexasHockey
Colorado wouldn't budge on Rantanens request of $14M but will Carolina?
I have Rantanen projected for $13.5M on an 8 year contract and from my understanding, Colorado wasn't close to this number. Curious to see if Rantanens camp will accept a slightly lower number than the deal they got Draisaitl.
I have Rantanen projected for $13.5M on an 8 year contract and from my understanding, Colorado wasn't close to this number. Curious to see if Rantanens camp will accept a slightly lower number than the deal they got Draisaitl.
January 25, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Colorado wouldn't budge on Rantanens request of $14M but will Carolina?
I have Rantanen projected for $13.5M on an 8 year contract and from my understanding, Colorado wasn't close to this number. Curious to see if Rantanens camp will accept a slightly lower number than the deal they got Draisaitl.
I have Rantanen projected for $13.5M on an 8 year contract and from my understanding, Colorado wasn't close to this number. Curious to see if Rantanens camp will accept a slightly lower number than the deal they got Draisaitl.
If you want to see my most recent contract projections, you can find them in the sheet below.
There are over 400 players with a contract projection!
Comment your thoughts below!
#NHL #ContractProjections
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
There are over 400 players with a contract projection!
Comment your thoughts below!
#NHL #ContractProjections
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
ScotiaStat 2025 Projections
docs.google.com
January 21, 2025 at 11:13 PM
If you want to see my most recent contract projections, you can find them in the sheet below.
There are over 400 players with a contract projection!
Comment your thoughts below!
#NHL #ContractProjections
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
There are over 400 players with a contract projection!
Comment your thoughts below!
#NHL #ContractProjections
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
The final number came in at $5.25M but this deal leaves the #GoAvsGo with just shy of $13M in cap space(assuming a $92M cap ceiling and including Landeskog's cap hit) for next season.
Doesn't exactly leave a lot of room for Rantanen, Drouin or other free agent additions.
Doesn't exactly leave a lot of room for Rantanen, Drouin or other free agent additions.
December 27, 2024 at 6:13 PM
The final number came in at $5.25M but this deal leaves the #GoAvsGo with just shy of $13M in cap space(assuming a $92M cap ceiling and including Landeskog's cap hit) for next season.
Doesn't exactly leave a lot of room for Rantanen, Drouin or other free agent additions.
Doesn't exactly leave a lot of room for Rantanen, Drouin or other free agent additions.
What if...🔍🧐
What if #GoAvsGo Cale Makar was an RFA this summer? What kind of money could he get? I ran his stats through my model.
The results: 8 years, $11.75M
This would put him $250K ahead of Erik Karlsson to be the league's highest paid defenseman.
Is this a fair deal?
What if #GoAvsGo Cale Makar was an RFA this summer? What kind of money could he get? I ran his stats through my model.
The results: 8 years, $11.75M
This would put him $250K ahead of Erik Karlsson to be the league's highest paid defenseman.
Is this a fair deal?
December 21, 2024 at 3:03 PM
What if...🔍🧐
What if #GoAvsGo Cale Makar was an RFA this summer? What kind of money could he get? I ran his stats through my model.
The results: 8 years, $11.75M
This would put him $250K ahead of Erik Karlsson to be the league's highest paid defenseman.
Is this a fair deal?
What if #GoAvsGo Cale Makar was an RFA this summer? What kind of money could he get? I ran his stats through my model.
The results: 8 years, $11.75M
This would put him $250K ahead of Erik Karlsson to be the league's highest paid defenseman.
Is this a fair deal?
My model had Brayden McNabb at 3 years by $4.5 million. In my opinion, this is a fine deal for the #VegasBorn, nothing crazy but McNabb will be 37 when this deal ends. It wouldn't surprise me if he finishes this contract with another team.
November 17, 2024 at 2:06 AM
My model had Brayden McNabb at 3 years by $4.5 million. In my opinion, this is a fine deal for the #VegasBorn, nothing crazy but McNabb will be 37 when this deal ends. It wouldn't surprise me if he finishes this contract with another team.