Saurabh Rane
@saurabhontap.bsky.social
SaurabhOnTap on Twitter also
Methodology was pretty rudimentary. Starting point was prior season EPA, prior strength variance ratio, normal-normal model for posterior & then let it rip.
Tons of room for improvement, e.g. QB/coach changes + Vegas wins in prior
As a reference, here's stable EPA/play in 2024
Tons of room for improvement, e.g. QB/coach changes + Vegas wins in prior
As a reference, here's stable EPA/play in 2024
September 11, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Methodology was pretty rudimentary. Starting point was prior season EPA, prior strength variance ratio, normal-normal model for posterior & then let it rip.
Tons of room for improvement, e.g. QB/coach changes + Vegas wins in prior
As a reference, here's stable EPA/play in 2024
Tons of room for improvement, e.g. QB/coach changes + Vegas wins in prior
As a reference, here's stable EPA/play in 2024
Surprisingly, it takes team EPA/play an average of ~4 games to loosely stabilize (within ~6 spots of final ranking) & ~8 games to truly stabilize (within ~3 spots of final ranking)
September 11, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Surprisingly, it takes team EPA/play an average of ~4 games to loosely stabilize (within ~6 spots of final ranking) & ~8 games to truly stabilize (within ~3 spots of final ranking)