Samuel Hurtado
@samuelhurtado.bsky.social
Head of Stress Testing division at Banco de España. Macroeconomics, machine learning and worrying about a world full of post-viral sequelae. He/him.
Any info from Boston? I found this recent covid uptick a bit weird (it started before thanksgiving)
December 11, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Any info from Boston? I found this recent covid uptick a bit weird (it started before thanksgiving)
This is a very interesting paper. Let me plot their results in a different way so it shows a clearer picture of what they mean:
December 5, 2025 at 4:45 PM
This is a very interesting paper. Let me plot their results in a different way so it shows a clearer picture of what they mean:
Those extrapolations are not helping. Talking about the observed increase should be enough.
xkcd.com/605/
xkcd.com/605/
November 27, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Those extrapolations are not helping. Talking about the observed increase should be enough.
xkcd.com/605/
xkcd.com/605/
It seemed impossible but: new record, 19 ambulances in an otherwise normal day. And yes my car now has an ambulancemeter.
November 6, 2025 at 7:26 PM
It seemed impossible but: new record, 19 ambulances in an otherwise normal day. And yes my car now has an ambulancemeter.
Ready for the rise of fascism
October 30, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Ready for the rise of fascism
You must accept the frog
(Illustration by Billy Murphy, check him out on IG, he's good)
(Illustration by Billy Murphy, check him out on IG, he's good)
October 10, 2025 at 10:43 PM
You must accept the frog
(Illustration by Billy Murphy, check him out on IG, he's good)
(Illustration by Billy Murphy, check him out on IG, he's good)
And that single data point was preliminary. It got significantly revised down shortly after that graph made the rounds, looks like this now.
sarsaigua.icra.cat
sarsaigua.icra.cat
October 5, 2025 at 7:45 AM
And that single data point was preliminary. It got significantly revised down shortly after that graph made the rounds, looks like this now.
sarsaigua.icra.cat
sarsaigua.icra.cat
Latest data from Spain: my estimate using the sentinel system sivira says currently between 2.8% and 4% of the population has covid. This NB+XFG wave has hit between 23% and 43% of the population. This week: flat positivity but proxy went up bc they're testing more bc the VRS season has started.
September 29, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Latest data from Spain: my estimate using the sentinel system sivira says currently between 2.8% and 4% of the population has covid. This NB+XFG wave has hit between 23% and 43% of the population. This week: flat positivity but proxy went up bc they're testing more bc the VRS season has started.
Looking at the same data with more detail
September 16, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Looking at the same data with more detail
The UK does a yearly GP patient survey. Results for 2025 show a continuing decline of the health of the general population. All those infections are taking a toll.
September 16, 2025 at 10:50 AM
The UK does a yearly GP patient survey. Results for 2025 show a continuing decline of the health of the general population. All those infections are taking a toll.
New data from the sentinel system in Spain: the percentage of people currently with covid is between 2% (if you look at the proxy) and 4% (if you look at positivity). This wave hasn't been high, but it's lasting a long time: it has infected between 17% and 32% of the population and it's still going.
August 29, 2025 at 4:33 PM
New data from the sentinel system in Spain: the percentage of people currently with covid is between 2% (if you look at the proxy) and 4% (if you look at positivity). This wave hasn't been high, but it's lasting a long time: it has infected between 17% and 32% of the population and it's still going.
I played pádel this morning. The court was much more tightly enclosed than I was expecting, so I kept my flo mask on, after changing it to the low-drag "everyday filter". Definitely comfortable enough. And hopefully a good enough protection too.
August 9, 2025 at 11:40 AM
I played pádel this morning. The court was much more tightly enclosed than I was expecting, so I kept my flo mask on, after changing it to the low-drag "everyday filter". Definitely comfortable enough. And hopefully a good enough protection too.
Looking at age groups, as usual there's more noise in these one-shot updates than in the yearly averages.
July 24, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Looking at age groups, as usual there's more noise in these one-shot updates than in the yearly averages.
There was also an update recently from the official survey about the health of the general population (barómetro sanitario del CIS). Results are in line with previous waves: the deterioration is confirmed but doesn't seem to be accelerating.
July 24, 2025 at 8:38 PM
There was also an update recently from the official survey about the health of the general population (barómetro sanitario del CIS). Results are in line with previous waves: the deterioration is confirmed but doesn't seem to be accelerating.
In both cases I extrapolate from sentinel system to population using my old wastewater+serology indicator.
The current wave has infected between 11% and 18% of the Spanish population (it's been bigger here than in other places)
The current wave has infected between 11% and 18% of the Spanish population (it's been bigger here than in other places)
July 24, 2025 at 8:36 PM
In both cases I extrapolate from sentinel system to population using my old wastewater+serology indicator.
The current wave has infected between 11% and 18% of the Spanish population (it's been bigger here than in other places)
The current wave has infected between 11% and 18% of the Spanish population (it's been bigger here than in other places)
New data from the sentinel system in Spain: the percentage of people currently with covid is between 1.5% (if you look at the proxy) and 3.1% (if you look at positivity), and it's been flat at those levels for three weeks.
July 24, 2025 at 8:34 PM
New data from the sentinel system in Spain: the percentage of people currently with covid is between 1.5% (if you look at the proxy) and 3.1% (if you look at positivity), and it's been flat at those levels for three weeks.
Currently in Spain, between 1.3% and 2.6% of the population has covid (that's between 1-in-40 and 1-in-80). Around 10% of the population has had it in this wave so far. All this is better than I expected but still: not great. Data published today from our surveillance program (SIVIRA).
July 3, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Currently in Spain, between 1.3% and 2.6% of the population has covid (that's between 1-in-40 and 1-in-80). Around 10% of the population has had it in this wave so far. All this is better than I expected but still: not great. Data published today from our surveillance program (SIVIRA).
To be fair: at the same time there was a fall in the price of poultry, so it may just be a side-effect of measures to covertly fight "perceived inflation" elsewhere, something like a directive for school cafeterias to stop serving eggs and chicken. I wouldn't be surprised if they're doing that.
June 22, 2025 at 6:44 AM
To be fair: at the same time there was a fall in the price of poultry, so it may just be a side-effect of measures to covertly fight "perceived inflation" elsewhere, something like a directive for school cafeterias to stop serving eggs and chicken. I wouldn't be surprised if they're doing that.
With the US restricting information about the spread of H5N1, and I guess also imposing inaction, the fact that US wholesale pork prices are rising fast gets me very, very concerned
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/le...
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/le...
June 21, 2025 at 6:29 AM
With the US restricting information about the spread of H5N1, and I guess also imposing inaction, the fact that US wholesale pork prices are rising fast gets me very, very concerned
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/le...
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/le...
The Hong Kong covid wastewater data turned around pretty sharply. Still a significant wave, but much lower than I was fearing when it was going up.
June 16, 2025 at 10:08 AM
The Hong Kong covid wastewater data turned around pretty sharply. Still a significant wave, but much lower than I was fearing when it was going up.
A good bbq needs @rubovd.bsky.social around making cocktails 👌
June 14, 2025 at 10:15 PM
A good bbq needs @rubovd.bsky.social around making cocktails 👌
The covid wave in Spain is progressing as expected: very similar to last year's FLiRT wave (I'm not plotting the last data point, which is flat, because the same thing happened last week and now they've revised it significantly upwards)
June 12, 2025 at 9:17 PM
The covid wave in Spain is progressing as expected: very similar to last year's FLiRT wave (I'm not plotting the last data point, which is flat, because the same thing happened last week and now they've revised it significantly upwards)
These are the "uninfected" controls in the veterans database from the papers by @zalaly.bsky.social et al
June 3, 2025 at 12:28 PM
These are the "uninfected" controls in the veterans database from the papers by @zalaly.bsky.social et al