The delegation consists largely of key diplomatic figures such as Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Alexander Lavrentiyev

Syria initially appeared to be backing a balancing strategy between East and West but now has taken a firmer stance against Russia and its bases

This aligns with Russian warnings about neocolonialism in Africa but the Kremlin has reason to tread cautiously on blaming Rwanda

Economic ties have strengthened under Kagame and Rwanda has backed Russia's vision in CAR
russiaun.ru/en/news/drc_...

The only silver lining for Lukashenko is that he is seen by many Belarusians as a figure who has resisted dragging Belarus into North Korea-style ground involvement in the Ukraine War

This divides the anti-war community in Belarus
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/01/bela...

Political apathy has set in in Belarus as the opposition candidates are disqualified, fear of protests rises and Belarusians abroad are disenfranchised

36% turnout was expected in 2025 compared to 75% in 2020

Hezbollah aligned media has been pushing for Lebanese to return to southern Lebanon and Israel believes it needs more time to vanquish its remaining infrastructure in the border region

Joseph Aoun has gotten a reprieve but perilous moments lie ahead

This breaks from previous reports of a near breakdown of the ceasefire

22 Lebanese deaths transpired as Israel decided to stay in southern Lebanon past the deadline of today

A NATO flotilla was recently assembled to counter the hybrid threat from Russia against Baltic Sea cables.

It was stationed off Estonia's coast

That doesn't seem to be an adequate deterrent thus-far
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

As Georgia faces protests, Serbia faces US sanctions pressure, and Armenia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have grievances with Russia, Putin will be relieved by smooth elections in Belarus

Belarus's importance in Russia's vision has grown as its influence elsewhere fades /END

A loyalist from within the system, such as ex-Deputy PM and loyal Minsk Oblast enforcer Alexander Turchin could take the reigns

Regardless of whether a dynastic dictatorship or an intra-elite succession process takes place, the 2025-30 period will have some uncertainty /8

When it comes to successors to Luakshenko, the process gets trickier

Viktor Lukashenko is running operations for Lukashenko in the UAE, Dmitry Lukashenko is apolitical, that leaves his youngest son Nikolai who has little credibility /7

The argument that the Ukraine War's end needs to be followed by freedom in Belarus is a popular rallying cry from Tsikhanouskaya's supporters

But aside from saying Luakshenko has no legitimacy like Kaja Kallas did, the EU, US or Britain will do little to bring about change /6

ukashenko's attitude towards his decision to aid the Ukraine War clashes with public opinion (way more Belarusians fought for Ukraine as partisans than who backed Russia)

But it facilitates Russia's Union State endgame which is progressing through stealth integration /5

The Belarus opposition's nominal standard bearer is Hanna Kanapatskaya

Aside from only having 1.7% support, she is not a revolutionary by any means, in fact in her speeches, she has warned against "excessive initiative" to counter Lukashenko's regime /4

Unlike 2020, there is no expectation of major protests in Belarus this time around

The risk of arrest is too high. So Russia's use of Belarus as a launchpad for missile strikes on Ukraine and as a constant pressure axis on Kyiv remains /3

The Belarusian opposition is systematically excluded from the elections and not just by barring their candidates like Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya from standing

300,000 Belarusians who live abroad are denied the vote as absentee voting is not allowed /2

Alexander Lukashenko's re-election is guaranteed

So much so that Lukashenko has refrained from serious campaigning on the grounds that he is too focused on running Belarus

The sole opposition are Communist and right-wing "Liberal Democrats", just like Russia /1

60,000 Slovaks have protested against Fico's ties to Russia

In 2018, mass protests about the suspicious murder of an investigative journalist presaged Fico's resignation

This unrest is definitely causing some unease in Fico's inner circle