@sammyzammy.bsky.social
That’s a big swing but looks like no other parties actually ran last time so guessing Labour won by default?
January 23, 2026 at 6:20 AM
That’s a big swing but looks like no other parties actually ran last time so guessing Labour won by default?
Stats for Lefties would LOVE a Reform government if it meant they got to spite Labour.
January 22, 2026 at 3:20 PM
Stats for Lefties would LOVE a Reform government if it meant they got to spite Labour.
I agree but tbf More In Common has them on 31%, although their results do tend to be very swingy.
January 22, 2026 at 3:14 PM
I agree but tbf More In Common has them on 31%, although their results do tend to be very swingy.
I wasn’t pretending. I didn’t follow what point they were trying to make, and since you weren't going to clarify and instead chose to be cryptic, I had to make an educated guess.
January 22, 2026 at 2:20 PM
I wasn’t pretending. I didn’t follow what point they were trying to make, and since you weren't going to clarify and instead chose to be cryptic, I had to make an educated guess.
I used an adjective to describe a comment, not a person, and clearly not in a mental health sense. Since they escalated the exchange into personal insults, I’m not engaging further.
January 22, 2026 at 1:55 PM
I used an adjective to describe a comment, not a person, and clearly not in a mental health sense. Since they escalated the exchange into personal insults, I’m not engaging further.
There was no counter-argument… It was simply a statement clarifying that I was not talking to you…
January 22, 2026 at 1:30 PM
There was no counter-argument… It was simply a statement clarifying that I was not talking to you…
Nope, you’ve lost me. I have no idea what you’re talking about. What mental health slur?
January 22, 2026 at 1:01 PM
Nope, you’ve lost me. I have no idea what you’re talking about. What mental health slur?
? I didn’t say that comment to you.
January 22, 2026 at 12:59 PM
? I didn’t say that comment to you.
A single council by-election will never be a representative sample of the entire population, no matter the demographics.
January 22, 2026 at 10:54 AM
A single council by-election will never be a representative sample of the entire population, no matter the demographics.
Crazy misrepresentation of what I said. No longer worth responding any further.
January 22, 2026 at 10:52 AM
Crazy misrepresentation of what I said. No longer worth responding any further.
That doesn’t make it representative of a general election.
January 22, 2026 at 9:00 AM
That doesn’t make it representative of a general election.
In that one specific constituency, absolutely.
Nationwide - that’s TBC.
Nationwide - that’s TBC.
January 21, 2026 at 12:25 PM
In that one specific constituency, absolutely.
Nationwide - that’s TBC.
Nationwide - that’s TBC.
Strange how More in Common has become the one to amplify Reform… just a few months ago they had Reform on a mere +4 lead!
January 21, 2026 at 9:21 AM
Strange how More in Common has become the one to amplify Reform… just a few months ago they had Reform on a mere +4 lead!
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_his...
I thought this was an interesting read about the fracturing of the left/right votes.
I thought this was an interesting read about the fracturing of the left/right votes.
Historical Polls
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
January 20, 2026 at 9:30 AM
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_his...
I thought this was an interesting read about the fracturing of the left/right votes.
I thought this was an interesting read about the fracturing of the left/right votes.
Why on Earth would either of those parties form a coalition with Reform…?
January 20, 2026 at 9:28 AM
Why on Earth would either of those parties form a coalition with Reform…?
Well you’ll have to make a choice between tactically voting against Tories/Reform or tactically voting against Labour then. If you’d rather a Reform local government thats fine, but don’t be under the illusion you can vote against all three.
January 19, 2026 at 10:59 AM
Well you’ll have to make a choice between tactically voting against Tories/Reform or tactically voting against Labour then. If you’d rather a Reform local government thats fine, but don’t be under the illusion you can vote against all three.
Sorry I misinterpreted your comment. I don’t think I should need to know a great deal about it to post it, I literally just stuck the numbers in for interest. I’m sure some people would just make numbers up to suit their agenda! I assume it’ll be the speaker, independents, Your Party, etc. :)
January 16, 2026 at 3:09 PM
Sorry I misinterpreted your comment. I don’t think I should need to know a great deal about it to post it, I literally just stuck the numbers in for interest. I’m sure some people would just make numbers up to suit their agenda! I assume it’ll be the speaker, independents, Your Party, etc. :)
OK? Go ask Swingometer then. It’s not my fault the answer isn’t immediately available so not sure why you’re getting snarky with me.
January 16, 2026 at 1:34 PM
OK? Go ask Swingometer then. It’s not my fault the answer isn’t immediately available so not sure why you’re getting snarky with me.
No idea. Probably other
January 16, 2026 at 9:57 AM
No idea. Probably other
Are you taking bets on whom? 😉
January 15, 2026 at 6:35 PM
Are you taking bets on whom? 😉
Sorry I accidentally swapped the Tory and Labour vote shares.
LAB 185
CON 131
REF 179
LIB 82
GRN 7
SNP 30
PC 4
LAB 185
CON 131
REF 179
LIB 82
GRN 7
SNP 30
PC 4
January 13, 2026 at 11:20 AM
Sorry I accidentally swapped the Tory and Labour vote shares.
LAB 185
CON 131
REF 179
LIB 82
GRN 7
SNP 30
PC 4
LAB 185
CON 131
REF 179
LIB 82
GRN 7
SNP 30
PC 4
A third of the seats*
January 13, 2026 at 11:06 AM
A third of the seats*
I do wonder what would happen. I’m not sure when the last time was that the largest party failed to get a third of the votes. Repeat elections have historically solved hung parliaments, but they’ve only had very slight hung parliaments to resolve!
January 13, 2026 at 11:04 AM
I do wonder what would happen. I’m not sure when the last time was that the largest party failed to get a third of the votes. Repeat elections have historically solved hung parliaments, but they’ve only had very slight hung parliaments to resolve!
Are you suggesting a LAB-CON-LIB coalition wouldn’t work out!
January 13, 2026 at 10:38 AM
Are you suggesting a LAB-CON-LIB coalition wouldn’t work out!
See Swingometer with these numbers:
LAB 201
CON 109
REF 189
LIB 82
GRN 7
SNP 26
PLC 4
That’s the first time in a while Labour has been the largest party - albeit in an unworkable hung parliament.
LAB 201
CON 109
REF 189
LIB 82
GRN 7
SNP 26
PLC 4
That’s the first time in a while Labour has been the largest party - albeit in an unworkable hung parliament.
January 13, 2026 at 9:56 AM
See Swingometer with these numbers:
LAB 201
CON 109
REF 189
LIB 82
GRN 7
SNP 26
PLC 4
That’s the first time in a while Labour has been the largest party - albeit in an unworkable hung parliament.
LAB 201
CON 109
REF 189
LIB 82
GRN 7
SNP 26
PLC 4
That’s the first time in a while Labour has been the largest party - albeit in an unworkable hung parliament.