Samarth Gupta
@samarthgupta.bsky.social
Formerly at the Treasury Department, OMB, and Biden campaign/transition.
Policy and political writing @ wickedgoodpolicy.com
Policy and political writing @ wickedgoodpolicy.com
After years of prolonged conflict and unnecessary death, there is a clear need to force Putin’s hand. President Trump’s instinct is right, but his approach is wrong. There’s still time to change course—and an urgent need to.
thehill.com/opinion/inte...
thehill.com/opinion/inte...
There’s a better approach for Trump to change Putin’s calculus
He’s right to recognize that pressuring the Kremlin’s main cash cow is a way to grab Putin’s attention, but his approach is counterproductive and incomplete.
thehill.com
August 2, 2025 at 3:34 PM
After years of prolonged conflict and unnecessary death, there is a clear need to force Putin’s hand. President Trump’s instinct is right, but his approach is wrong. There’s still time to change course—and an urgent need to.
thehill.com/opinion/inte...
thehill.com/opinion/inte...
On military assistance, the President took a good first step in unpausing military assistance that Congress already committed. He should go further and ask Congress to approve additional military assistance for Ukraine, showing Putin that he Russia cannot easily win a war of attrition.
August 2, 2025 at 3:34 PM
On military assistance, the President took a good first step in unpausing military assistance that Congress already committed. He should go further and ask Congress to approve additional military assistance for Ukraine, showing Putin that he Russia cannot easily win a war of attrition.
To provide Ukraine with financial support—without asking our American or European taxpayers to foot the bill—the G7 should seize the $300 billion of frozen Russian sovereign assets and commit them to supporting Ukraine.
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/make-...
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/make-...
Make Moscow Pay
The case for seizing Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defense.
www.foreignaffairs.com
August 2, 2025 at 3:34 PM
To provide Ukraine with financial support—without asking our American or European taxpayers to foot the bill—the G7 should seize the $300 billion of frozen Russian sovereign assets and commit them to supporting Ukraine.
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/make-...
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/make-...
The second way to change Putin’s calculus is demonstrate that America will back Ukraine financially and militarily.
August 2, 2025 at 3:34 PM
The second way to change Putin’s calculus is demonstrate that America will back Ukraine financially and militarily.
The first thing he needs to do is follow his instinct to hit Russia’s energy revenues, but to do so in a way that doesn’t cause collateral damage to America and the rest of the world. Hubbard and Wolfram’s universal tariff idea is a great way to do so.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/o...
Opinion | How to Punish Russia, Make Money and End the War
www.nytimes.com
August 2, 2025 at 3:34 PM
The first thing he needs to do is follow his instinct to hit Russia’s energy revenues, but to do so in a way that doesn’t cause collateral damage to America and the rest of the world. Hubbard and Wolfram’s universal tariff idea is a great way to do so.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/o...
Putin recognizes Trump’s domestic political vulnerabilities–especially after last week’s economic news. Secondary tariffs won’t force Putin to negotiate in good faith; he’ll call Trump’s bluff.
The President should force Putin’s hand by doing two other things instead.
The President should force Putin’s hand by doing two other things instead.
August 2, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Putin recognizes Trump’s domestic political vulnerabilities–especially after last week’s economic news. Secondary tariffs won’t force Putin to negotiate in good faith; he’ll call Trump’s bluff.
The President should force Putin’s hand by doing two other things instead.
The President should force Putin’s hand by doing two other things instead.
If India, China, and others stop buying Russian oil, global prices will spike as Russian oil exports account for 7% of global supply.
If these countries keep buying the oil and Trump imposes a 100% tariff them, imports from those countries will become far more expensive.
If these countries keep buying the oil and Trump imposes a 100% tariff them, imports from those countries will become far more expensive.
August 2, 2025 at 3:34 PM
If India, China, and others stop buying Russian oil, global prices will spike as Russian oil exports account for 7% of global supply.
If these countries keep buying the oil and Trump imposes a 100% tariff them, imports from those countries will become far more expensive.
If these countries keep buying the oil and Trump imposes a 100% tariff them, imports from those countries will become far more expensive.
If Trump follows through with his plan, prices will ignite in America just as 2/3 of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation. And that’ll happen regardless of what decisions other countries make.
August 2, 2025 at 3:34 PM
If Trump follows through with his plan, prices will ignite in America just as 2/3 of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation. And that’ll happen regardless of what decisions other countries make.
Energy sales are the Kremlin's cash cow; they account for a quarter of its budget. Going after them is a good way to get Putin's attention, but the Trump proposal is an empty threat. If imposed, it'll hurt the U.S. economy and markets, and as we (and Putin) know...TACO.
August 2, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Energy sales are the Kremlin's cash cow; they account for a quarter of its budget. Going after them is a good way to get Putin's attention, but the Trump proposal is an empty threat. If imposed, it'll hurt the U.S. economy and markets, and as we (and Putin) know...TACO.