Anthropic has (relatively) official AGI timelines: powerful AI by early 2027. I think this prediction is unlikely to come true and I explain why in a new post.

I also give a proposed timeline with powerful AI in early 2027 so we can (hopefully) update before it is too late.

Dario has recently been claiming that his prediction of AIs writing 90% of code in 3-6 months has come true.

I'm skeptical, though I agree that AIs are writing a high fraction of code at Anthropic.

Studying actual scheming AIs might be difficult (as they don't want to be studied!). Can we instead just study AIs trained to exhibit misaligned/scheming behavior?

I discuss how promising this is and how we might do this in a new post: www.lesswrong.com/posts/v6K3hn...

Anthropic, GDM, and xAI say nothing about whether they train against Chain-of-Thought (CoT) while OpenAI claims they don't.

AI companies should be transparent about whether (and how) they train against CoT. While OpenAI is doing better, all AI companies should say more. 1/

Studying coherent scheming in AIs seems tricky, but there might be a feedback loop where we make schemers to study by iterating against detection methods and then improve detectors using these schemers. Iteration could start on weak AIs and transfer to stronger AIs.

What we should do to mitigate misalignment risk depends a lot on the level of buy-in/political will (from AI companies, US government, and China).

I've found it helpful to separate this out into Plan A/B/C/D and to plan for these situations somewhat separately.

I say more in a new post:

I now think very short AGI timelines are less likely. I updated due to GPT-5 being slightly below trend and not seeing fast progress in 2025.

At the start of 2025, I thought full automation of AI R&D before 2029 was ~25% likely, now I think it's only ~15% likely.

I'm now on bluesky. You can see my X/twitter account here: x.com/RyanPGreenbl.... I post about AGI timelines, takeoff, and misalignment risk.

My bluesky account will cross post my posts from X/twitter starting with some of my historical posts that people might be interested in.